Doug O'Laughlin
Semiconductor analyst, author of the Fabricated Knowledge newsletter and later a partner at SemiAnalysis, writing on the capital cycle in chips: capex, memory supply, packaging, and where the gluts come from.
Doug O'Laughlin did not write this page.
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Their wordsAnd so, while the Jevons paradox case was 100% correct in the long run, 97% of the fiber laid in 2001 was unlit.
- 2 weeks earlier
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Their wordsA glut follows every semiconductor shortage.
↗Capital Cycles and AIfabricatedknowledge.com 1st of 3 in this piece
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Their wordsWhat prevents this from being a broad-based bubble is that we are missing a critical feedback loop from the announcement's impact, like network growth or land value.
↗Capital Cycles and AIfabricatedknowledge.com 2nd of 3 in this piece
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Our reading
If the AI build-out does become a bubble, power and data centres are the assets that will carry it.
Their wordsIn today’s world, I think the increase in self-fulfilling asset prices will be due to power and data centers.
↗Capital Cycles and AIfabricatedknowledge.com 3rd of 3 in this piece
- 9 months earlier
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Their wordsMoore’s Law is a fractal, and the principles that apply to nanometers apply to racks.
↗The Data Center is the New Compute Unit: Nvidia's Vision for System-Level Scalingfabricatedknowledge.com 1st of 3 in this piece
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Their wordsThe copper backplane in the data center rack is effectively the new advanced packaging in the system-level Moore’s Law race.
↗The Data Center is the New Compute Unit: Nvidia's Vision for System-Level Scalingfabricatedknowledge.com 2nd of 3 in this piece
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Their wordsThe critical change that makes this all possible is liquid cooling.
↗The Data Center is the New Compute Unit: Nvidia's Vision for System-Level Scalingfabricatedknowledge.com 3rd of 3 in this piece
- 5 weeks earlier
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Their wordsHBM has the unique dynamic of costing a lot more than traditional DRAM, and the dynamic 2x higher capex is driven by the twice as large die size for HBM.
↗Why HBM is the Hottest Thing in Memoryfabricatedknowledge.com 1st of 2 in this piece
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Their wordsThey will shift what cash they generate to HBM capacity, which will keep supply growth in DRAM and NAND low.
↗Why HBM is the Hottest Thing in Memoryfabricatedknowledge.com 2nd of 2 in this piece
- 2 years earlier
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Their wordsFinally, not just old chips and new chips, but the companies that make the chips (semiconductor fabs) are becoming more consolidated and more strategic.
↗The Rising Tide of Semiconductor Costfabricatedknowledge.com 1st of 3 in this piece
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Their wordsThe primary driver is not only the rising costs of tools such as EUV, but the rising number of steps to make a chip.
↗The Rising Tide of Semiconductor Costfabricatedknowledge.com 2nd of 3 in this piece
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Our reading
TSMC can pass its rising costs on because at the leading edge its customers have nowhere else to go.
Their wordsGiven the concentration of fabrication power at TSMC, customers really don’t have another option.
↗The Rising Tide of Semiconductor Costfabricatedknowledge.com 4th of 3 in this piece