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Doug O'Laughlin

What Doug O'Laughlin thinks about semiconductors

@doug-olaughlin · 12 positions · 1 change of mind

Semiconductor analyst, author of the Fabricated Knowledge newsletter and later a partner at SemiAnalysis, writing on the capital cycle in chips: capex, memory supply, packaging, and where the gluts come from.

Doug O'Laughlin did not write this page.

We collected these quotes from things they published elsewhere, and every quote links to where it was said. They have no account here and have not endorsed this site. Quotes are word for word; the short line under each one is our own restatement, not their wording. Their own site. Is this you? Claim it or ask us to remove it. Or tell us what is wrong here.

6 dated positions, 2021 to 2025, in their own words. Our reading of what Doug O'Laughlin has said — not written or endorsed by them.

  1. Our readingEvery semiconductor shortage is followed by a glut, because capacity arrives in lumps long after the price signal that ordered it.

    Their wordsA glut follows every semiconductor shortage.

    ↗Capital Cycles and AIfabricatedknowledge.com 1st of 3 in this piece

  2. 9 months earlier

  3. Our readingMoore's Law is a fractal: the same squeeze that shrank the transistor is now being applied to the rack.

    Their wordsMoore’s Law is a fractal, and the principles that apply to nanometers apply to racks.

    ↗The Data Center is the New Compute Unit: Nvidia's Vision for System-Level Scalingfabricatedknowledge.com 1st of 3 in this piece

  4. 5 weeks earlier

  5. Our readingHigh-bandwidth memory costs roughly twice the capital per bit that ordinary DRAM does, because its dies are twice the size.

    Their wordsHBM has the unique dynamic of costing a lot more than traditional DRAM, and the dynamic 2x higher capex is driven by the twice as large die size for HBM.

    ↗Why HBM is the Hottest Thing in Memoryfabricatedknowledge.com 1st of 2 in this piece

  7. Our readingThe rush to build high-bandwidth memory starves ordinary DRAM and NAND of capacity, so AI demand tightens the memory markets it never touches.

    Their wordsThey will shift what cash they generate to HBM capacity, which will keep supply growth in DRAM and NAND low.

    ↗Why HBM is the Hottest Thing in Memoryfabricatedknowledge.com 2nd of 2 in this piece

  8. 2 years earlier

  9. Our readingChipmakers are consolidating into a few strategically important firms, so a fab is now a geopolitical asset rather than an industrial one.

    Their wordsFinally, not just old chips and new chips, but the companies that make the chips (semiconductor fabs) are becoming more consolidated and more strategic.

    ↗The Rising Tide of Semiconductor Costfabricatedknowledge.com 1st of 3 in this piece

  11. Our readingTSMC can pass its rising costs on because at the leading edge its customers have nowhere else to go.

    Their wordsGiven the concentration of fabrication power at TSMC, customers really don’t have another option.

    ↗The Rising Tide of Semiconductor Costfabricatedknowledge.com 4th of 3 in this piece