What Doug O'Laughlin thinks about China
Semiconductor analyst, author of the Fabricated Knowledge newsletter and later a partner at SemiAnalysis, writing on the capital cycle in chips: capex, memory supply, packaging, and where the gluts come from.
Doug O'Laughlin did not write this page.
We collected these quotes from things they published elsewhere, and every quote links to where it was said. They have no account here and have not endorsed this site. Quotes are word for word; the short line under each one is our own restatement, not their wording. Their own site. Is this you? Claim it or ask us to remove it. Or tell us what is wrong here.
1 dated position, 2025, in their own words. Our reading of what Doug O'Laughlin has said — not written or endorsed by them.
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Our reading · no longer heldChips made on older process nodes have to get more expensive, because a new fab cannot make money selling at prices a fully depreciated fab set.
No longer holdsThe COVID super-cycle, plus a new China supply line that does not care about capacity economics, points to a forever glut.
SaidReality: the lagging edge took price in a temporary market upturn; now we are reverting to the mean.
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