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Doug O'Laughlin

Doug O'Laughlin

@doug-olaughlin · 12 positions · 1 change of mind · On ppll ↗

Semiconductor analyst, author of the Fabricated Knowledge newsletter and later a partner at SemiAnalysis, writing on the capital cycle in chips: capex, memory supply, packaging, and where the gluts come from.

Doug O'Laughlin did not write this page.

We collected these quotes from things they published elsewhere, and every quote links to where it was said. They have no account here and have not endorsed this site. Quotes are word for word; the short line under each one is our own restatement, not their wording. Their own site. Is this you? Claim it or ask us to remove it. Or tell us what is wrong here.

3 of Doug O'Laughlin's claims fit 2 mental models. Most often: Second-order thinking, Cheaper means more, not less.

Models they name

Their own words name the idea.

Cheaper means more, not less

Make something cheaper to use and people use so much more of it that the total goes up (Jevons paradox).

Used by 12 others

Cheaper AI will be used more in the long run and still strand the hardware built for it in the short run, exactly as unlit fibre did after 2001.

  1. Doug O'Laughlin Semiconductor analyst, author of the Fabricated Knowledge… And so, while the Jevons paradox case was 100% correct in the long run, 97% of the fiber laid in 2001 was unlit. DeepSeek: Is this Jevon's Cope?fabricatedknowledge.com · 29 Jan 2025All korrents from this piece
    Their wordsAnd so, while the Jevons paradox case was 100% correct in the long run, 97% of the fiber laid in 2001 was unlit.

    ↗DeepSeek: Is this Jevon's Cope?fabricatedknowledge.com

    29 Jan 2025

Models we see in what they say

Our reading: their claim applies the idea without naming it. The claim is theirs; filing it here is ours.

Second-order thinking

Ask "and then what?": follow a decision past its first effect to the ones that come after.

Used by 87 others

The rush to build high-bandwidth memory starves ordinary DRAM and NAND of capacity, so AI demand tightens the memory markets it never touches.

  1. Doug O'Laughlin Semiconductor analyst, author of the Fabricated Knowledge… They will shift what cash they generate to HBM capacity, which will keep supply growth in DRAM and NAND low. Why HBM is the Hottest Thing in Memoryfabricatedknowledge.com · 3 Mar 2024All korrents from this piece
    Their wordsThey will shift what cash they generate to HBM capacity, which will keep supply growth in DRAM and NAND low.

    ↗Why HBM is the Hottest Thing in Memoryfabricatedknowledge.com

    3 Mar 2024