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With no typical event under fat tails, prediction markets are ludicrous because they make events look binary
Drawn from what Nassim Nicholas Taleb said
What Nassim Nicholas Taleb actually said
- Nassim Nicholas Taleb Former option trader and risk analyst
This absence of "typical" event in Extremistan is what makes prediction markets ludicrous, as they make events look binary.
Where this was said
↗The Fourth Quadrant: A Map of the Limits of Statistics (Edge, 2008)edge.org
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