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← With no typical event under fat tails, prediction markets are ludicrous because they make events look binary
17 connected korrents · 17 moments from 14 Sept 2008 to 25 Sept 2026.
Everything filed under market efficiency
market efficiency
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investing Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Read this korrent: With no typical event under fat tails, prediction markets are ludicrous because they make events look binary With no typical event under fat tails, prediction markets are ludicrous because they make events look binary Last stated 18 years ago
14 Sept 2008
NT
Nassim Nicholas Taleb — holds since 2008-09-14 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Prediction markets are good at reflecting conventional wisdom but do not provide significant new insights into election outcomes. — tap to centre the map on it Prediction markets are good at reflecting conventional wisdom but do not provide significant new insights into election outcomes. Last stated 2 weeks ago
21 Sept 2026
MY
Matthew Yglesias — holds since 2026-09-21 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Individual economists' forecasts about AI and the labour market are close to worthless, and aggregated forecasts from prediction markets should replace them. — tap to centre the map on it Individual economists' forecasts about AI and the labour market are close to worthless, and aggregated forecasts from prediction markets should replace them. Last stated 4 months ago
4 Jun 2026
AI
Alex Imas — holds since 2026-06-04 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Market bubbles and crashes are inevitable but impossible to predict in advance. — tap to centre the map on it Market bubbles and crashes are inevitable but impossible to predict in advance. Last stated 2 months ago
30 Jul 2026
JC
JL Collins — holds since 2026-07-30 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Prediction markets are generally well-calibrated, meaning events predicted with a certain probability occur with roughly that frequency. — tap to centre the map on it Prediction markets are generally well-calibrated, meaning events predicted with a certain probability occur with roughly that frequency. Last stated 2 weeks ago
21 Sept 2026
MY
Matthew Yglesias — holds since 2026-09-21 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A run of correct forecasts is not evidence of expertise, because among many forecasters some are right by chance. — tap to centre the map on it A run of correct forecasts is not evidence of expertise, because among many forecasters some are right by chance. Last stated 4 years ago
9 Aug 2022
GK
Gary Klein — holds since 2022-08-09 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Prediction markets for elections primarily process existing polling data rather than generating independent insights. — tap to centre the map on it Prediction markets for elections primarily process existing polling data rather than generating independent insights. Last stated 2 weeks ago
21 Sept 2026
MY
Matthew Yglesias — holds since 2026-09-21 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Neither the AI enthusiasts nor the AI sceptics are making it up; both camps are looking at real trends. — tap to centre the map on it Neither the AI enthusiasts nor the AI sceptics are making it up; both camps are looking at real trends. Last stated 2 months ago
12 Aug 2026
CM
Charity Majors — holds since 2026-08-12 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Samuelson's random-walk analogy for stock prices was mathematical showing-off dressed up as a claim about the real world. — tap to centre the map on it Samuelson's random-walk analogy for stock prices was mathematical showing-off dressed up as a claim about the real world. Last stated 3 years ago
30 May 2023
AG
Andrew Gelman — holds since 2023-05-27 — tap for who they are
AG
Andrew Gelman — no longer holds since 2023-05-30 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A "good business" now means one that can display quarter-on-quarter stock growth, not one that makes good products at a fair price. — tap to centre the map on it A "good business" now means one that can display quarter-on-quarter stock growth, not one that makes good products at a fair price. Last stated a year ago
21 May 2025
EZ
Ed Zitron — holds since 2025-05-21 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A high, stable dividend yield gives a stock's valuation a downside floor that growth stocks without dividends lack. — tap to centre the map on it A high, stable dividend yield gives a stock's valuation a downside floor that growth stocks without dividends lack. Last stated 7 months ago
3 Mar 2026
SB
Sanjay Bakshi — holds since 2026-03-03 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A society's prosperity comes from its productivity, not from the financial system or stock market. — tap to centre the map on it A society's prosperity comes from its productivity, not from the financial system or stock market. Last stated a week ago
25 Sept 2026
MM
Mr. Money Mustache — holds since 2026-09-25 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A first-time founder has an advantage over a repeat winner, because past success makes it too easy to raise money and hire against a big vision before there is product-market fit. — tap to centre the map on it A first-time founder has an advantage over a repeat winner, because past success makes it too easy to raise money and hire against a big vision before there is product-market fit. Last stated 4 months ago
14 Jun 2026
MP
Mark Pincus — holds since 2026-06-14 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A founder should take half the valuation if it buys all of the control, because the right to be wrong in your own way is what founding was for. — tap to centre the map on it A founder should take half the valuation if it buys all of the control, because the right to be wrong in your own way is what founding was for. Last stated 4 months ago
2 Jun 2026
MP
Mark Pincus — holds since 2026-06-02 — tap for who they are
Same subject: About 5% is the most common final ownership stake for the founder of a VC-funded startup that works out. — tap to centre the map on it About 5% is the most common final ownership stake for the founder of a VC-funded startup that works out. Last stated 3 months ago
18 Jul 2026
PL
Pieter Levels — holds since 2026-07-18 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A tracing requirement in an encrypted messenger gives up the confidentiality of who sent what, which is the part that protects the sender. — tap to centre the map on it A tracing requirement in an encrypted messenger gives up the confidentiality of who sent what, which is the part that protects the sender. Last stated 5 years ago
1 Aug 2021
MG
Matthew Green — holds since 2021-08-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Bitcoin creates more upside and downside than traditional money because it makes users power users with no system administrator to fall back on. — tap to centre the map on it Bitcoin creates more upside and downside than traditional money because it makes users power users with no system administrator to fall back on. Last stated 3 months ago
12 Jul 2026
BS
Balaji Srinivasan — holds since 2026-07-12 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Code-signing with self-signed certificates makes security worse rather than better. — tap to centre the map on it Code-signing with self-signed certificates makes security worse rather than better. Last stated 5 months ago
25 Apr 2026
CW
Chris Wellons — holds since 2026-04-25 — tap for who they are