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← Prediction markets are good at reflecting conventional wisdom but do…
17 connected korrents · 16 moments from 30 Jun 2022 to 27 Sept 2026.
Everything filed under market efficiency
market efficiency
Everything filed under government
government
Everything filed under AI and jobs
AI and jobs
Everything filed under investing
investing
Everything filed under stock market
stock market
Everything filed under fiscal policy
fiscal policy Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Read this korrent: Prediction markets are good at reflecting conventional wisdom but do not provide significant new insights into election outcomes. Prediction markets are good at reflecting conventional wisdom but do not provide significant new insights into election outcomes. Last stated 2 weeks ago
21 Sept 2026
MY
Matthew Yglesias — holds since 2026-09-21 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Prediction markets for elections primarily process existing polling data rather than generating independent insights. — tap to centre the map on it Prediction markets for elections primarily process existing polling data rather than generating independent insights. Last stated 2 weeks ago
21 Sept 2026
MY
Matthew Yglesias — holds since 2026-09-21 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Individual economists' forecasts about AI and the labour market are close to worthless, and aggregated forecasts from prediction markets should replace them. — tap to centre the map on it Individual economists' forecasts about AI and the labour market are close to worthless, and aggregated forecasts from prediction markets should replace them. Last stated 4 months ago
4 Jun 2026
AI
Alex Imas — holds since 2026-06-04 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The track record of thoughtful people predicting the long-run future is mediocre rather than hopeless, which is enough to take such predictions seriously. — tap to centre the map on it The track record of thoughtful people predicting the long-run future is mediocre rather than hopeless, which is enough to take such predictions seriously. Last stated 4 years ago
30 Jun 2022
HK
Holden Karnofsky — holds since 2022-06-30 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A run of correct forecasts is not evidence of expertise, because among many forecasters some are right by chance. — tap to centre the map on it A run of correct forecasts is not evidence of expertise, because among many forecasters some are right by chance. Last stated 4 years ago
9 Aug 2022
GK
Gary Klein — holds since 2022-08-09 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Substantive AI regulation is more likely to pass than conventional wisdom suggests. — tap to centre the map on it Substantive AI regulation is more likely to pass than conventional wisdom suggests. Last stated 2 weeks ago
17 Sept 2026
NS
Nate Silver — holds since 2026-09-17 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Most current predictions about AI's imminent impact on the job market are naive. — tap to centre the map on it Most current predictions about AI's imminent impact on the job market are naive. Last stated a year ago
25 Sept 2025
AK
Andrej Karpathy — holds since 2025-09-25 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The long trend of making it easier for ordinary people to index more of the economy will resume, and AI itself will help by cutting the cost of going public. — tap to centre the map on it The long trend of making it easier for ordinary people to index more of the economy will resume, and AI itself will help by cutting the cost of going public. Last stated 4 months ago
4 Jun 2026
PT
Phil Trammell — holds since 2026-06-04 — tap for who they are
Same subject: When assessing an economy's trajectory, current performance signals are more useful than forecasts of potential GDP growth. — tap to centre the map on it When assessing an economy's trajectory, current performance signals are more useful than forecasts of potential GDP growth. Last stated a year ago
13 Aug 2025
AB
Andrew Batson — holds since 2025-08-13 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A company that deviates from open standards in its data exports without documenting the deviation creates an artificial vendor lock-in. — tap to centre the map on it A company that deviates from open standards in its data exports without documenting the deviation creates an artificial vendor lock-in. Last stated 2 years ago
3 Mar 2025
TS
Tobias Sjösten — holds since 2025-03-03 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A dominant company's lead in market share compounds over time and becomes harder for competitors to close, especially in technology. — tap to centre the map on it A dominant company's lead in market share compounds over time and becomes harder for competitors to close, especially in technology. Last stated a week ago
22 Sept 2026
BR
Barry Ritholtz — holds since 2026-09-22 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A sophisticated economy cannot be centrally planned, because planning removes the price signal that carries information about demand. — tap to centre the map on it A sophisticated economy cannot be centrally planned, because planning removes the price signal that carries information about demand. Last stated a year ago
2 Sept 2025
BE
Benedict Evans — holds since 2025-09-02 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Corner allocations under price ceilings are a distinct source of cross-market misallocation, separate from Harberger quantity loss and within-market misallocation. — tap to centre the map on it Corner allocations under price ceilings are a distinct source of cross-market misallocation, separate from Harberger quantity loss and within-market misallocation. Last stated 8 months ago
12 Feb 2026
AT
Alex Tabarrok — holds since 2026-02-12 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Misallocation, not the aggregate quantity reduction, is the main welfare cost of price controls. — tap to centre the map on it Misallocation, not the aggregate quantity reduction, is the main welfare cost of price controls. Last stated 8 months ago
12 Feb 2026
AT
Alex Tabarrok — holds since 2026-02-12 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Draconian price controls are among the most ruinous economic policies a government can impose. — tap to centre the map on it Draconian price controls are among the most ruinous economic policies a government can impose. Last stated 2 weeks ago
18 Sept 2026
SS
Scott Sumner — holds since 2026-09-18 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Samuelson's random-walk analogy for stock prices was mathematical showing-off dressed up as a claim about the real world. — tap to centre the map on it Samuelson's random-walk analogy for stock prices was mathematical showing-off dressed up as a claim about the real world. Last stated 3 years ago
30 May 2023
AG
Andrew Gelman — holds since 2023-05-27 — tap for who they are
AG
Andrew Gelman — no longer holds since 2023-05-30 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Stock prices are an unreliable indicator of the economy because they often reflect fads and fantasies. — tap to centre the map on it Stock prices are an unreliable indicator of the economy because they often reflect fads and fantasies. Last stated 5 days ago
27 Sept 2026
PK
Paul Krugman — holds since 2026-09-27 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Stocks sustained by persistent online attention can stay overpriced for long periods, so overvaluation alone does not imply a near-term correction. — tap to centre the map on it Stocks sustained by persistent online attention can stay overpriced for long periods, so overvaluation alone does not imply a near-term correction. Last stated 4 years ago
25 Jul 2022
NS
Noah Smith — holds since 2022-07-25 — tap for who they are
At the centre
Prediction markets are good at reflecting conventional wisdom but do not provide significant new insights into election outcomes.
Holds Read this korrent →
Prediction markets for elections primarily process existing polling data rather than generating independent insights.
Holds
Individual economists' forecasts about AI and the labour market are close to worthless, and aggregated forecasts from prediction markets should replace them.
Holds
The track record of thoughtful people predicting the long-run future is mediocre rather than hopeless, which is enough to take such predictions seriously.
Holds
A run of correct forecasts is not evidence of expertise, because among many forecasters some are right by chance.
Holds
Substantive AI regulation is more likely to pass than conventional wisdom suggests.
Holds
Most current predictions about AI's imminent impact on the job market are naive.
Holds
The long trend of making it easier for ordinary people to index more of the economy will resume, and AI itself will help by cutting the cost of going public.
Holds
When assessing an economy's trajectory, current performance signals are more useful than forecasts of potential GDP growth.
Holds
A company that deviates from open standards in its data exports without documenting the deviation creates an artificial vendor lock-in.
Holds
A dominant company's lead in market share compounds over time and becomes harder for competitors to close, especially in technology.
Holds
A sophisticated economy cannot be centrally planned, because planning removes the price signal that carries information about demand.
Holds
Corner allocations under price ceilings are a distinct source of cross-market misallocation, separate from Harberger quantity loss and within-market misallocation.
Holds
Misallocation, not the aggregate quantity reduction, is the main welfare cost of price controls.
Holds
Draconian price controls are among the most ruinous economic policies a government can impose.
Holds
Samuelson's random-walk analogy for stock prices was mathematical showing-off dressed up as a claim about the real world.
No longer holds
Stock prices are an unreliable indicator of the economy because they often reflect fads and fantasies.
Holds
Stocks sustained by persistent online attention can stay overpriced for long periods, so overvaluation alone does not imply a near-term correction.
Holds