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← Prediction markets will become normal by next year.
17 connected korrents · 16 moments from 9 Aug 2022 to 25 Sept 2026.
Everything filed under startups
startups
Everything filed under stock market
stock market
Everything filed under investing
investing
Everything filed under market efficiency
market efficiency
Everything filed under cybersecurity
cybersecurity
Everything filed under AGI
AGI
Everything filed under SaaS
SaaS
Everything filed under SaaS
SaaS
Everything filed under venture capital
venture capital Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Read this korrent: Prediction markets will become normal by next year. Prediction markets will become normal by next year. Last stated 5 months ago
20 Jun 2026
JB
Josh Brown — holds since 2026-06-20 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Prediction markets seem, for now at least, to be efficient processors of public information and a good index of conventional wisdom but not necessarily a source of fresh insights. — tap to centre the map on it Prediction markets seem, for now at least, to be efficient processors of public information and a good index of conventional wisdom but not necessarily a source of fresh insights. Last stated 2 months ago
21 Sept 2026
MY
Matthew Yglesias — holds since 2026-09-21 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Cyber insurance prices can be expected to rise somewhat, though why they have kept falling is far from obvious. — tap to centre the map on it Cyber insurance prices can be expected to rise somewhat, though why they have kept falling is far from obvious. Last stated 2 months ago
6 Sept 2026
TC
Tyler Cowen — holds since 2026-09-06 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Market bubbles and crashes are inevitable but impossible to predict in advance. — tap to centre the map on it Market bubbles and crashes are inevitable but impossible to predict in advance. Last stated 3 months ago
30 Jul 2026
JC
JL Collins — holds since 2026-07-30 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The 2022 fall in tech valuations is a lasting new normal, not a temporary dip. — tap to centre the map on it The 2022 fall in tech valuations is a lasting new normal, not a temporary dip. Last stated 4 years ago
15 Sept 2022
MS
Mark Suster — holds since 2022-09-15 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A run of correct forecasts is not evidence of expertise, because among many forecasters some are right by chance. — tap to centre the map on it A run of correct forecasts is not evidence of expertise, because among many forecasters some are right by chance. Last stated 4 years ago
9 Aug 2022
GK
Gary Klein — holds since 2022-08-09 — tap for who they are
Same subject: There is a coin-flip chance that AGI arrives by 2030. — tap to centre the map on it There is a coin-flip chance that AGI arrives by 2030. Last stated a year ago
23 Jul 2025
DH
Demis Hassabis — holds since 2025-07-23 — tap for who they are
Same subject: It is still early in AI go-to-market: the markets have not hardened and the good tools do not exist yet. — tap to centre the map on it It is still early in AI go-to-market: the markets have not hardened and the good tools do not exist yet. Last stated 10 months ago
1 Jan 2026
JL
Jason Lemkin — holds since 2026-01-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The software sell-off may have been overdone in the short-term. — tap to centre the map on it The software sell-off may have been overdone in the short-term. Last stated 7 months ago
30 Mar 2026
JB
Josh Brown — holds since 2026-03-30 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A "good business" now means one that can display quarter-on-quarter stock growth, not one that makes good products at a fair price. — tap to centre the map on it A "good business" now means one that can display quarter-on-quarter stock growth, not one that makes good products at a fair price. Last stated a year ago
21 May 2025
EZ
Ed Zitron — holds since 2025-05-21 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A high, stable dividend yield gives a stock's valuation a downside floor that growth stocks without dividends lack. — tap to centre the map on it A high, stable dividend yield gives a stock's valuation a downside floor that growth stocks without dividends lack. Last stated 8 months ago
3 Mar 2026
SB
Sanjay Bakshi — holds since 2026-03-03 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A society's prosperity comes from its productivity, not from the financial system or stock market. — tap to centre the map on it A society's prosperity comes from its productivity, not from the financial system or stock market. Last stated a month ago
25 Sept 2026
MM
Mr. Money Mustache — holds since 2026-09-25 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A big venture firm's edge is deploying capital into what is obviously working; a small firm's is backing a founder or idea that is not yet obvious. — tap to centre the map on it A big venture firm's edge is deploying capital into what is obviously working; a small firm's is backing a founder or idea that is not yet obvious. Last stated a year ago
23 Jul 2025
JS
Jon Sakoda — holds since 2025-07-23 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A cash-flowing core business can fund long-term speculative R&D in a way no venture capitalist would ever support. — tap to centre the map on it A cash-flowing core business can fund long-term speculative R&D in a way no venture capitalist would ever support. Last stated 7 months ago
12 Apr 2026
ES
Evan Spiegel — holds since 2026-04-12 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A first-time founder has an advantage over a repeat winner, because past success makes it too easy to raise money and hire against a big vision before there is product-market fit. — tap to centre the map on it A first-time founder has an advantage over a repeat winner, because past success makes it too easy to raise money and hire against a big vision before there is product-market fit. Last stated 5 months ago
14 Jun 2026
MP
Mark Pincus — holds since 2026-06-14 — tap for who they are
Same subject: “Why now?” is the wrong question to make a founder answer — the honest answer can simply be that you started now. — tap to centre the map on it “Why now?” is the wrong question to make a founder answer — the honest answer can simply be that you started now. Last stated 3 months ago
28 Jul 2026
BS
Blake Scholl — holds since 2026-07-28 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A belief nobody else shares is a warning, and a belief everybody shares is also a warning; the right number of people who agree with you is small but not zero. — tap to centre the map on it A belief nobody else shares is a warning, and a belief everybody shares is also a warning; the right number of people who agree with you is small but not zero. Last stated 3 months ago
28 Jul 2026
SA
Sam Altman — holds since 2026-07-28 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A billboard buys only short, shallow awareness, so it does not work for education or for a startup before product-market fit. — tap to centre the map on it A billboard buys only short, shallow awareness, so it does not work for education or for a startup before product-market fit. Last stated 5 months ago
9 Jun 2026
EK
Emily Kramer — holds since 2026-06-09 — tap for who they are
At the centre
Prediction markets will become normal by next year.
Holds Read this korrent →
Prediction markets seem, for now at least, to be efficient processors of public information and a good index of conventional wisdom but not necessarily a source of fresh insights.
Holds
Cyber insurance prices can be expected to rise somewhat, though why they have kept falling is far from obvious.
Holds
Market bubbles and crashes are inevitable but impossible to predict in advance.
Holds
The 2022 fall in tech valuations is a lasting new normal, not a temporary dip.
Holds
A run of correct forecasts is not evidence of expertise, because among many forecasters some are right by chance.
Holds
There is a coin-flip chance that AGI arrives by 2030.
Holds
It is still early in AI go-to-market: the markets have not hardened and the good tools do not exist yet.
Holds
The software sell-off may have been overdone in the short-term.
Holds
A "good business" now means one that can display quarter-on-quarter stock growth, not one that makes good products at a fair price.
Holds
A high, stable dividend yield gives a stock's valuation a downside floor that growth stocks without dividends lack.
Holds
A society's prosperity comes from its productivity, not from the financial system or stock market.
Holds
A big venture firm's edge is deploying capital into what is obviously working; a small firm's is backing a founder or idea that is not yet obvious.
Holds
A cash-flowing core business can fund long-term speculative R&D in a way no venture capitalist would ever support.
Holds
A first-time founder has an advantage over a repeat winner, because past success makes it too easy to raise money and hire against a big vision before there is product-market fit.
Holds
“Why now?” is the wrong question to make a founder answer — the honest answer can simply be that you started now.
Holds
A belief nobody else shares is a warning, and a belief everybody shares is also a warning; the right number of people who agree with you is small but not zero.
Holds
A billboard buys only short, shallow awareness, so it does not work for education or for a startup before product-market fit.
Holds