Scott Sumner
Monetary economist known for NGDP-level targeting; wrote TheMoneyIllusion.
Scott Sumner did not write this page.
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Their wordsI do believe that market prices, used appropriately, are the best way of evaluating the likelihood of various future outcomes.
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Their wordsNonetheless, I suspect that in the long run the cost/benefit calculation for AI tends to favor the poor.
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Their wordsI do believe that most tech people overestimate the risk of mass job loss from AI, but that's because economics is one area where I feel I do have some expertise.
- 5 days earlier
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Our reading
Draconian price controls are among the most ruinous economic policies a government can impose.
Their wordsDraconian price controls are among the most ruinous of all economic policies.
↗Adam Smith’s greatest insight?scottsumner.substack.com 1st of 3 in this piece
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Their wordsSmith would probably be able to explain to our foreign policy establishment why Russia's economy continued to do well after "draconian" sanctions were imposed in early 2022, and why economic sanctions almost never achieve their policy goals.
↗Adam Smith’s greatest insight?scottsumner.substack.com 2nd of 3 in this piece
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Our reading
People systematically overestimate how much any single economic shock affects the macroeconomy.
Their wordsThat's not to say that real shocks never matter-Covid certainly had an impact on the economy-rather that people tend to overestimate the impact of any given shock.
↗Adam Smith’s greatest insight?scottsumner.substack.com 3rd of 3 in this piece
- 4 days earlier
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Our reading
Under a 2% inflation-targeting regime, monetary policy carries no meaningful fiscal implications.
Their wordsBut under a 2% inflation targeting regime, it is not worth thinking about the fiscal implications of monetary policy-it's just not that important.
↗Don't mix fiscal and monetary policyscottsumner.substack.com 1st of 3 in this piece
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Our reading
The real interest rate in the long run is determined by market forces, not by monetary policy.
Their wordsIn fact, the real interest rate is almost entirely determined by market forces in the long run, not by monetary policy.
↗Don't mix fiscal and monetary policyscottsumner.substack.com 2nd of 3 in this piece
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Their wordsFirst, the public hates inflation, much more than they hate taxes.
↗Don't mix fiscal and monetary policyscottsumner.substack.com 3rd of 3 in this piece
- 4 days earlier
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Their wordsIn other posts, I've argued that the distinguishing feature of utilitarianism is the idea that every person's welfare is equally important.
↗A cheesehead’s view of the worldscottsumner.substack.com 1st of 3 in this piece
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Their wordsThe key to understanding places like Wisconsin (or Sweden) is to look past the outdated left/right approach to political ideology.
↗A cheesehead’s view of the worldscottsumner.substack.com 2nd of 3 in this piece
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Their wordsI suspect that Wright is under-appreciated because architectural critics prefer urbanism to Wright's suburban approach.
↗A cheesehead’s view of the worldscottsumner.substack.com 3rd of 3 in this piece
Changed their mind about
- The Federal Reserve's average inflation targeting framework is a real commitment to hold inflation near a 2% average across the 2020s, so an overshoot now has to be offset by undershoots later.
- Aggressive quantitative easing should raise long-term interest rates, because effective monetary stimulus raises them.
- A severe US banking crisis is very unlikely.