What Scott Sumner thinks about interest rates
Monetary economist known for NGDP-level targeting; wrote TheMoneyIllusion.
Everything they publish, on ppll ↗
Scott Sumner did not write this page.
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6 dated positions, 2010 to 2023, in their own words. Our reading of what Scott Sumner has said — not written or endorsed by them.
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Our reading · no longer heldThe Federal Reserve's average inflation targeting framework is a real commitment to hold inflation near a 2% average across the 2020s, so an overshoot now has to be offset by undershoots later.
No longer holdsI assumed they intended inflation to average roughly 2% during the 2020s.
SaidThe Fed refused to adopt average inflation targeting, and it made a serious policy error precisely because it failed to do average inflation targeting.
- 19 months earlier
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Their wordsThe Fed needs PCE inflation to average 1.96% for the remainder of the decade in order to hit their AIT target.
- 11 years earlier
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Our reading · no longer heldAggressive quantitative easing should raise long-term interest rates, because effective monetary stimulus raises them.
No longer holdsI predicted that aggressive QE would raise long term interest rates, a view which seemed to be refuted by the response on T-bond yields to the March 2009 Fed QE announcement.
SaidI predicted that aggressive QE would raise long term interest rates, a view which seemed to be refuted by the response on T-bond yields to the March 2009 Fed QE announcement.
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Our reading · no longer heldMonetary policy operates with long and variable lags, so attempts to fine-tune the economy make things worse.
No longer holdsIn the 1970s I thought monetary policy operated with long and variable lags, and thus fine-tuning would make things worse.
SaidIn the 1970s I thought monetary policy operated with long and variable lags, and thus fine-tuning would make things worse.
- 1 day earlier
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Their wordsAny effective monetary stimulus would be expected to raise long term rates.
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Their wordsIn the 1970s I thought monetary policy operated with long and variable lags, and thus fine-tuning would make things worse.