Scott Sumner
Monetary economist known for NGDP-level targeting; wrote TheMoneyIllusion.
Scott Sumner did not write this page.
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· held 19 months
Believed beforesaid
Their words thenThe Fed needs PCE inflation to average 1.96% for the remainder of the decade in order to hit their AIT target.
Nowsaid
Our readingNo longer believes this.
Their wordsThe Fed refused to adopt average inflation targeting, and it made a serious policy error precisely because it failed to do average inflation targeting.
- 12 years earlier
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Believed before
Their words thenAny effective monetary stimulus would be expected to raise long term rates.
Nowsaid
Our readingNo longer believes this.
Their wordsI predicted that aggressive QE would raise long term interest rates, a view which seemed to be refuted by the response on T-bond yields to the March 2009 Fed QE announcement.
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Believed before
Our reading
Their words thenIn 2007 I thought it very unlikely that there would be a severe US banking crisis.
Nowsaid
Our readingNo longer believes this.
Their wordsIn 2007 I thought it very unlikely that there would be a severe US banking crisis.
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Believed before
Their words thenIn the 1970s I thought monetary policy operated with long and variable lags, and thus fine-tuning would make things worse.
Nowsaid
Our readingNo longer believes this.
Their wordsIn the 1970s I thought monetary policy operated with long and variable lags, and thus fine-tuning would make things worse.