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← Prediction markets are notoriously bad at handling very small probabilities.

17 connected korrents · 17 moments from 14 Sept 2008 to 7 Oct 2026.

Everything filed under AGI AGI Everything filed under AI and jobs AI and jobs Everything filed under AI agents AI agents Everything filed under AI alignment AI alignment Everything filed under market efficiency market efficiency Everything filed under investing investing Everything filed under public debt public debt Everything filed under LLMs LLMs Same subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subject Read this korrent: Prediction markets are notoriously bad at handling very small probabilities. Prediction markets are notoriously bad athandling very small probabilities. Last stated today 7 Oct 2026 SA Scott Alexander — holds since 2026-10-07 — tap for who they are Same subject: Individual economists' forecasts about AI and the labour market are close to worthless, and aggregated forecasts from prediction markets should replace them. — tap to centre the map on it Individual economists' forecastsabout AI and the labour market areclose to worthless, and aggregatedforecasts from prediction marketsshould replace them. Last stated 4 months ago 4 Jun 2026 AI Alex Imas — holds since 2026-06-04 — tap for who they are Same subject: With no typical event under fat tails, prediction markets are ludicrous because they make events look binary — tap to centre the map on it With no typical event under fattails, prediction markets areludicrous because they make eventslook binary Last stated 18 years ago 14 Sept 2008 NT Nassim Nicholas Taleb — holds since 2008-09-14 — tap for who they are Same subject: AI risk is probably a totally manageable problem that will be brutally mismanaged, the way pandemic response was. — tap to centre the map on it AI risk is probably a totallymanageable problem that will bebrutally mismanaged, the waypandemic response was. Last stated 2 months ago 11 Aug 2026 RG Ryan Greenblatt — holds since 2026-08-11 — tap for who they are Same subject: Prediction markets seem, for now at least, to be efficient processors of public information and a good index of conventional wisdom but not necessarily a source of fresh insights. — tap to centre the map on it Prediction markets seem, for now atleast, to be efficient processors ofpublic information and a good indexof conventional wisdom but notnecessarily a source of freshinsights. Last stated 2 weeks ago 21 Sept 2026 MY Matthew Yglesias — holds since 2026-09-21 — tap for who they are Same subject: A run of correct forecasts is not evidence of expertise, because among many forecasters some are right by chance. — tap to centre the map on it A run of correct forecasts is notevidence of expertise, because amongmany forecasters some are right bychance. Last stated 4 years ago 9 Aug 2022 GK Gary Klein — holds since 2022-08-09 — tap for who they are Same subject: Fear of strong AI models killing everyone was not based on peer-reviewed research showing high doom odds, nor indicated by market prices. — tap to centre the map on it Fear of strong AI models killingeveryone was not based onpeer-reviewed research showing highdoom odds, nor indicated by marketprices. Last stated 2 weeks ago 26 Sept 2026 TC Tyler Cowen — holds since 2026-09-26 — tap for who they are Same subject: Government borrowing through the financial crisis and the pandemic was a good trade, because it repaired household balance sheets. — tap to centre the map on it Government borrowing through thefinancial crisis and the pandemicwas a good trade, because itrepaired household balance sheets. Last stated a month ago 28 Aug 2026 BC Ben Carlson — holds since 2026-08-28 — tap for who they are Same subject: Judging one model worse than another from a one-shot, probabilistic output on a given day is not a good way to evaluate it. — tap to centre the map on it Judging one model worse than anotherfrom a one-shot, probabilisticoutput on a given day is not a goodway to evaluate it. Last stated 5 months ago 19 May 2026 TG Tommy Geoco — holds since 2026-05-19 — tap for who they are Same subject: A company must cut half its engineers to pay for the other half's tokens, and that is what the layoffs are actually about. — tap to centre the map on it A company must cut half itsengineers to pay for the otherhalf's tokens, and that is what thelayoffs are actually about. Last stated 7 months ago 11 Mar 2026 SY Steve Yegge — holds since 2026-03-11 — tap for who they are Same subject: A likely outcome is that many occupations are eventually mostly replaced by AI while humans still have plenty to do. — tap to centre the map on it A likely outcome is that manyoccupations are eventually mostlyreplaced by AI while humans stillhave plenty to do. Last stated 4 weeks ago 7 Sept 2026 NS Noah Smith — holds since 2026-09-07 — tap for who they are Same subject: A lot of jobs will probably be created because of AI. — tap to centre the map on it A lot of jobs will probably becreated because of AI. Last stated a week ago 27 Sept 2026 MG Molly Graham — holds since 2026-09-27 — tap for who they are Same subject: A country outside the AI supply chain should just buy the index — which works only in the world where AI ends up commoditised rather than concentrated. — tap to centre the map on it A country outside the AI supplychain should just buy the index —which works only in the world whereAI ends up commoditised rather thanconcentrated. Last stated 4 months ago 4 Jun 2026 AI Alex Imas — holds since 2026-06-04 — tap for who they are Same subject: A language model is no substitute for a well-specified conventional algorithm, so it cannot simply be dropped into a complex problem and trusted. — tap to centre the map on it A language model is no substitutefor a well-specified conventionalalgorithm, so it cannot simply bedropped into a complex problem andtrusted. Last stated a year ago 7 Jun 2025 GM Gary Marcus — holds since 2025-06-07 — tap for who they are Same subject: A model that could learn effectively from raw bitstrings or bytestrings would be extremely powerful, able to learn from any data modality — tap to centre the map on it A model that could learn effectivelyfrom raw bitstrings or bytestringswould be extremely powerful, able tolearn from any data modality Last stated 3 years ago 10 Oct 2023 CH Chip Huyen — holds since 2023-10-10 — tap for who they are Same subject: A collection of AI agents does not automatically form a functioning organization any more than a group of smart people does. — tap to centre the map on it A collection of AI agents does notautomatically form a functioningorganization any more than a groupof smart people does. Last stated 5 months ago 21 May 2026 RK Rohit Krishnan — holds since 2026-05-21 — tap for who they are Same subject: A company cannot be led by machines, because nobody would have recourse against them. — tap to centre the map on it A company cannot be led by machines,because nobody would have recourseagainst them. Last stated 3 weeks ago 15 Sept 2026 TL Tobias Lütke — holds since 2026-09-15 — tap for who they are Same subject: A computer-using agent needs a machine of its own, or you will spend the day fighting it for the mouse cursor. — tap to centre the map on it A computer-using agent needs amachine of its own, or you willspend the day fighting it for themouse cursor. Last stated 2 months ago 10 Aug 2026 PS Peter Steinberger — holds since 2026-08-10 — tap for who they are
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At the centre Prediction markets are notoriously bad at handling very small probabilities. Last stated 7 Oct 2026 · today Holds Scott Alexander Read this korrent →