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Prediction markets are notoriously bad at handling very small probabilities.
Drawn from what Scott Alexander said
What Scott Alexander actually said
- Scott Alexander Essayist; writes Astral Codex Ten
Polymarket is currently at 5% for WHO declaring plague a “pandemic”, but markets are notoriously bad at handling very small probabilities, so I don’t take it seriously as a counter to the sources above.
Added to korrents 7 Oct 2026 · How quotes work · Something wrong? Tell us
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