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← Prediction markets have positive externalities and work differently from betting markets.
17 connected korrents · 18 moments from 14 Sept 2008 to 29 Oct 2026.
Everything filed under investing
investing
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price gouging
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stock market
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economists
Everything filed under market efficiency
market efficiency Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Read this korrent: Prediction markets have positive externalities and work differently from betting markets. Prediction markets have positive externalities and work differently from betting markets. Last stated 2 days ago
29 Oct 2026
BS
Ben Shapiro — holds since 2026-10-29 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Prediction markets seem, for now at least, to be efficient processors of public information and a good index of conventional wisdom but not necessarily a source of fresh insights. — tap to centre the map on it Prediction markets seem, for now at least, to be efficient processors of public information and a good index of conventional wisdom but not necessarily a source of fresh insights. Last stated a month ago
21 Sept 2026
MY
Matthew Yglesias — holds since 2026-09-21 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Prediction markets are notoriously bad at handling very small probabilities. — tap to centre the map on it Prediction markets are notoriously bad at handling very small probabilities. Last stated 3 weeks ago
7 Oct 2026
SA
Scott Alexander — holds since 2026-10-07 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Individual economists' forecasts about AI and the labour market are close to worthless, and aggregated forecasts from prediction markets should replace them. — tap to centre the map on it Individual economists' forecasts about AI and the labour market are close to worthless, and aggregated forecasts from prediction markets should replace them. Last stated 5 months ago
4 Jun 2026
AI
Alex Imas — holds since 2026-06-04 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Two-sided marketplaces show that not all economically relevant knowledge is local, contrary to Hayek's calculation argument. — tap to centre the map on it Two-sided marketplaces show that not all economically relevant knowledge is local, contrary to Hayek's calculation argument. Last stated 4 months ago
12 Jul 2026
BS
Balaji Srinivasan — holds since 2026-07-12 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Technology has made markets less efficient at long horizons rather than more efficient. — tap to centre the map on it Technology has made markets less efficient at long horizons rather than more efficient. Last stated 2 years ago
3 Sept 2024
CA
Cliff Asness — holds since 2024-09-03 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Risk can be reduced without reducing returns by structuring bets in a more diversified way. — tap to centre the map on it Risk can be reduced without reducing returns by structuring bets in a more diversified way. Last stated 4 years ago
27 Sept 2022
RD
Ray Dalio — holds since 2022-09-27 — tap for who they are
Same subject: High-risk bets are fine as long as they are ones that would be super valuable if they worked, and research looks this way. — tap to centre the map on it High-risk bets are fine as long as they are ones that would be super valuable if they worked, and research looks this way. Last stated 2 months ago
23 Aug 2026
SA
Sam Altman — holds since 2026-08-23 — tap for who they are
Same subject: With no typical event under fat tails, prediction markets are ludicrous because they make events look binary — tap to centre the map on it With no typical event under fat tails, prediction markets are ludicrous because they make events look binary Last stated 18 years ago
14 Sept 2008
NT
Nassim Nicholas Taleb — holds since 2008-09-14 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Draconian price controls are among the most ruinous economic policies a government can impose. — tap to centre the map on it Draconian price controls are among the most ruinous economic policies a government can impose. Last stated a month ago
18 Sept 2026
SS
Scott Sumner — holds since 2026-09-18 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Dynamic pricing means prices decrease as well as increase. — tap to centre the map on it Dynamic pricing means prices decrease as well as increase. Last stated 2 months ago
13 Sept 2026
PG
Paul Graham — holds since 2026-09-13 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Europe's carmakers spent the early 2020s raising prices and profits at their customers' expense, and narrowed their own market doing it. — tap to centre the map on it Europe's carmakers spent the early 2020s raising prices and profits at their customers' expense, and narrowed their own market doing it. Last stated 3 months ago
22 Jul 2026
AT
Adam Tooze — holds since 2026-07-22 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A "good business" now means one that can display quarter-on-quarter stock growth, not one that makes good products at a fair price. — tap to centre the map on it A "good business" now means one that can display quarter-on-quarter stock growth, not one that makes good products at a fair price. Last stated a year ago
21 May 2025
EZ
Ed Zitron — holds since 2025-05-21 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A high, stable dividend yield gives a stock's valuation a downside floor that growth stocks without dividends lack. — tap to centre the map on it A high, stable dividend yield gives a stock's valuation a downside floor that growth stocks without dividends lack. Last stated 8 months ago
3 Mar 2026
SB
Sanjay Bakshi — holds since 2026-03-03 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A society's prosperity comes from its productivity, not from the financial system or stock market. — tap to centre the map on it A society's prosperity comes from its productivity, not from the financial system or stock market. Last stated a month ago
25 Sept 2026
MM
Mr. Money Mustache — holds since 2026-09-25 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A bubble can only be identified in retrospect, so arguing about whether one is happening now cannot be settled now. — tap to centre the map on it A bubble can only be identified in retrospect, so arguing about whether one is happening now cannot be settled now. Last stated 11 months ago
9 Dec 2025
HM
Howard Marks — holds since 2025-12-09 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A central bank can eliminate a self-fulfilling ('sunspot') debt crisis simply by credibly committing to buy as many bonds as needed at the low interest rate. — tap to centre the map on it A central bank can eliminate a self-fulfilling ('sunspot') debt crisis simply by credibly committing to buy as many bonds as needed at the low interest rate. Last stated 4 years ago
1 Jun 2022
OB
Olivier Blanchard — holds since 2022-06-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A founder who does not know their own goal dies by a thousand compromises and ends up running a company they do not want to work at. — tap to centre the map on it A founder who does not know their own goal dies by a thousand compromises and ends up running a company they do not want to work at. Last stated 5 months ago
2 Jun 2026
MP
Mark Pincus — holds since 2026-06-02 — tap for who they are
At the centre
Prediction markets have positive externalities and work differently from betting markets.
Holds Read this korrent →
Prediction markets seem, for now at least, to be efficient processors of public information and a good index of conventional wisdom but not necessarily a source of fresh insights.
Holds
Prediction markets are notoriously bad at handling very small probabilities.
Holds
Individual economists' forecasts about AI and the labour market are close to worthless, and aggregated forecasts from prediction markets should replace them.
Holds
Two-sided marketplaces show that not all economically relevant knowledge is local, contrary to Hayek's calculation argument.
Holds
Technology has made markets less efficient at long horizons rather than more efficient.
Holds
Risk can be reduced without reducing returns by structuring bets in a more diversified way.
Holds
High-risk bets are fine as long as they are ones that would be super valuable if they worked, and research looks this way.
Holds
With no typical event under fat tails, prediction markets are ludicrous because they make events look binary
Holds
Draconian price controls are among the most ruinous economic policies a government can impose.
Holds
Dynamic pricing means prices decrease as well as increase.
Holds
Europe's carmakers spent the early 2020s raising prices and profits at their customers' expense, and narrowed their own market doing it.
Holds
A "good business" now means one that can display quarter-on-quarter stock growth, not one that makes good products at a fair price.
Holds
A high, stable dividend yield gives a stock's valuation a downside floor that growth stocks without dividends lack.
Holds
A society's prosperity comes from its productivity, not from the financial system or stock market.
Holds
A bubble can only be identified in retrospect, so arguing about whether one is happening now cannot be settled now.
Holds
A central bank can eliminate a self-fulfilling ('sunspot') debt crisis simply by credibly committing to buy as many bonds as needed at the low interest rate.
Holds
A founder who does not know their own goal dies by a thousand compromises and ends up running a company they do not want to work at.
Holds