Austin Vernon
Engineer and investor who writes quantitative posts about how physical industries actually work — chemical plants, geothermal drilling, shipyards, thermal storage and the economics of low-volume manufacturing — at austinvernon.site.
Austin Vernon did not write this page.
We collected these quotes from things they published elsewhere, and every quote links to where it was said. They have no account here and have not endorsed this site. Quotes are word for word; the short line under each one is our own restatement, not their wording. Their own site. Is this you? Claim it or ask us to remove it. Or tell us what is wrong here.
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Our reading
Reviving American manufacturing needs a better business model rather than a planned economy.
Their wordsReviving manufacturing doesn't require a planned economy, just a better business model.
↗Speed Can Reindustrialize Americaaustinvernon.site 1st of 15 in this piece
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Their wordsThe US excels at high-volume manufacturing, but not low-volume manufacturing.
↗Speed Can Reindustrialize Americaaustinvernon.site 2nd of 15 in this piece
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Their wordsLong lead times and soft costs, fueled by the world-leading US wages for "white collar" work, are the root cause of poor performance in low-volume production because there are few units to spread the soft costs over.
↗Speed Can Reindustrialize Americaaustinvernon.site 3rd of 15 in this piece
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Their wordsThe key is that robot arms are not labor-replacing, but labor-shifting.
↗Speed Can Reindustrialize Americaaustinvernon.site 4th of 15 in this piece
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Their wordsIt has a surplus of STEM graduates that are often underemployed, while "Hukou" residency restrictions complicate hiring hourly labor in coastal factories.
↗Speed Can Reindustrialize Americaaustinvernon.site 5th of 15 in this piece
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Their wordsSecond, technologies and market structure are contextual, where the US can't simply emulate China's manufacturing.
↗Speed Can Reindustrialize Americaaustinvernon.site 6th of 15 in this piece
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Their wordsUltra-short lead times are one of the most important features for buyers.
↗Speed Can Reindustrialize Americaaustinvernon.site 7th of 15 in this piece
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Their wordsThe robot arm base case saves some hourly labor at the expense of adding more skilled labor, and can easily be negative if it needs reprogramming more than a few times per year.
↗Speed Can Reindustrialize Americaaustinvernon.site 8th of 15 in this piece
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Their wordsThese end manufacturers (new and old) are vulnerable to tariffs on their inputs and they are the buyers that the "speed strategy" is relevant for.
↗Speed Can Reindustrialize Americaaustinvernon.site 9th of 15 in this piece
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Their wordsZero tariffs are the best way to help them.
↗Speed Can Reindustrialize Americaaustinvernon.site 10th of 15 in this piece
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Their wordsThe CHIPS Act might still be a positive, but the cost is almost certainly many times the $50 billion price tag.
↗Speed Can Reindustrialize Americaaustinvernon.site 11th of 15 in this piece
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Their wordsStockpiles provide insurance while conserving our valuable labor.
↗Speed Can Reindustrialize Americaaustinvernon.site 12th of 15 in this piece
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Our reading
Most regulatory delay is dead calendar time that could be cut without changing a single safety test.
Their wordsThere is a massive scope to reduce calendar time without even altering testing protocols.
↗Speed Can Reindustrialize Americaaustinvernon.site 13th of 15 in this piece
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Their wordsIndustrial policy almost inevitably consumes more skilled labor and reduces what we can produce.
↗Speed Can Reindustrialize Americaaustinvernon.site 14th of 15 in this piece
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Their wordsThe modern world is so bountiful that mass production is no longer the limiting factor.
↗Speed Can Reindustrialize Americaaustinvernon.site 15th of 15 in this piece
- 11 months earlier
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Their wordsMaking ultra cheap products requires different rules and strategy.
- 4 months earlier
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Their wordsHumans being awful drivers leads to a massive increase in vehicle costs and weight, makes cars more dangerous to people outside of them, and imposes significant costs on infrastructure like roads.
↗Human Driving Increases Transportation Cost 10xaustinvernon.site 1st of 3 in this piece
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Their wordsIt should be possible to decrease the weight of a car by 10x without sacrificing speed or internal volume.
↗Human Driving Increases Transportation Cost 10xaustinvernon.site 2nd of 3 in this piece
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Their wordsCheap, lightweight people movers are currently illegal in many situations, so regulation is a barrier.
↗Human Driving Increases Transportation Cost 10xaustinvernon.site 3rd of 3 in this piece
- 7 months earlier
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Their wordsThe solar array sizes under these assumptions are prohibitively large.
↗How to Make Off Grid Data Centers Affordableaustinvernon.site 1st of 9 in this piece
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Their wordsThe optimal scenario is typically when the generators supply 1% of yearly electricity (shown below).
↗How to Make Off Grid Data Centers Affordableaustinvernon.site 2nd of 9 in this piece
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Their wordsThe cooling systems in most data centers are energy hogs and contribute no direct value.
↗How to Make Off Grid Data Centers Affordableaustinvernon.site 3rd of 9 in this piece
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Their wordsAI servers bring new challenges because many require liquid cooling.
↗How to Make Off Grid Data Centers Affordableaustinvernon.site 4th of 9 in this piece
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Their wordsDeleting the UPSs could knock off ~$750/kW after considering equipment, installation, and square footage reduction.
↗How to Make Off Grid Data Centers Affordableaustinvernon.site 5th of 9 in this piece
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Their wordsThe 100-megawatt facility might have ten 10-megawatt blocks served directly by a 1500V DC feeder line without connections to other blocks that would require extra switches and routing.
↗How to Make Off Grid Data Centers Affordableaustinvernon.site 6th of 9 in this piece
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Their wordsInstalled generators cost ~$800/kW, and the data center capital cost, including servers, is ~$40,000/kW, so adding 1% more makeup compute capacity is money ahead of purchasing generators.
↗How to Make Off Grid Data Centers Affordableaustinvernon.site 7th of 9 in this piece
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Their wordsEfforts to improve efficiency and remove vestigial features pay off handsomely.
↗How to Make Off Grid Data Centers Affordableaustinvernon.site 8th of 9 in this piece
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Their wordsSome efforts, like nuclear-powered data centers, are reminiscent of Toyota's hydrogen push.
↗How to Make Off Grid Data Centers Affordableaustinvernon.site 9th of 9 in this piece
- 3 months earlier
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Their wordsLabor costs are not an excuse!
↗Revitalizing US Navy Shipbuildingaustinvernon.site 1st of 4 in this piece
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Our reading
A modern shipyard can match a whole wartime industrial mobilisation with a fraction of the workers.
Their wordsSouth Korea's yearly production often matches the total tonnage the US produced in WWII - with one-fifth of the workers!
↗Revitalizing US Navy Shipbuildingaustinvernon.site 2nd of 4 in this piece
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Their wordsNothing kills labor productivity like sections that don't fit together.
↗Revitalizing US Navy Shipbuildingaustinvernon.site 3rd of 4 in this piece
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Their wordsSpecialized suppliers need multiple shipyards in one location to steady their business.
↗Revitalizing US Navy Shipbuildingaustinvernon.site 4th of 4 in this piece
- 8 months earlier
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Their wordsShips are great at carrying bulky and heavy stuff with minimal cost and energy usage. We need a battery chemistry that leans into that and sacrifices performance to reduce cost.
↗Why Battery Powered Cargo Ships are Compellingaustinvernon.site
- 8 months earlier
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Their wordsDrag and tire friction dominate energy expenditure. Engineering effort to improve drag is worth so much more with electric vehicles.
- 6 months earlier
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Their wordsTrucks, vans, and other high mileage vehicles promise to impact oil demand more than EVs.
↗The Electric Car's Shrinking Role in Reducing Oil Demandaustinvernon.site 1st of 2 in this piece
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Their wordsFalling consumer oil demand looks much more like driving the Camry 6000 miles per year instead of 12,000 miles rather than a shiny new electric car in every garage or robot taxis swarming everywhere.
↗The Electric Car's Shrinking Role in Reducing Oil Demandaustinvernon.site 2nd of 2 in this piece
- 4 months earlier
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Their wordsE-bikes range in price from $1000 to $10,000. The market is still lacking a Toyota Corolla equivalent.
↗The Future of E-Bikesaustinvernon.site 1st of 2 in this piece
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Their wordsHybrid-electric cars are an engineering abomination. They have both gas and electric powertrains, ensuring they are more expensive and complicated than their competitors.
↗The Future of E-Bikesaustinvernon.site 2nd of 2 in this piece
- 2 weeks earlier
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Their wordsSurprisingly, fuel consumption per passenger mile would be lower in a Celera 500 than in a 737. The larger the fuselage, the harder it is to achieve the same drag reduction.
↗Air Travel Doesn't Have to be Terribleaustinvernon.site 1st of 3 in this piece
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Our reading
What air travellers actually value is door-to-door time, and public policy tends not to measure it.
Their wordsReduction in door-to-door travel time is king. Public policy may not keep this in mind.
↗Air Travel Doesn't Have to be Terribleaustinvernon.site 2nd of 3 in this piece
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Our reading
The constraint on point-to-point air travel is runway and tarmac capacity, not room in the sky.
Their wordsThere is much more space in the air than on the airport tarmac. Our current hub and spoke system means some hub airports operate near runway capacity already.
↗Air Travel Doesn't Have to be Terribleaustinvernon.site 3rd of 3 in this piece
- 8 weeks earlier
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Their wordsThe changes separated its management and board from the day-to-day processes at the heart of its business.
↗America's Aerospace Industry is Regeneratingaustinvernon.site