AI has already made sweeping mechanical changes cheap; the unsolved problem is getting the same productivity when adding features to an old, entangled codebase.

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• AI-assisted coding will generate a lot of low-quality output that developers will need to clean up, even as it also produces good results. SHScott Hanselman9 Feb 2026
• AI has moved the programmer's bottleneck from writing code to having good design ideas, and there is no verification loop for a design idea. MNMichael Nielsen7 Apr 2026
• The absence of a visible productivity jump from AI proves nothing, because a real ten percent uplift across the board would be impressive and almost invisible from outside. CMCasey Muratori26 Aug 2026
• There is a world where AI coding tools change nothing except that engineers are happier, and for a lot of companies that is not good enough to keep paying for. DRDax Raad27 May 2026
• As AI makes code cheaper to produce, understanding and architectural design become more valuable. NENelson Elhage27 Jan 2025

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