AI has already made sweeping mechanical changes cheap; the unsolved problem is getting the same productivity when adding features to an old, entangled codebase.

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• AI has moved the programmer's bottleneck from writing code to having good design ideas, and there is no verification loop for a design idea. MNMichael Nielsen7 Apr 2026similar wording
• The absence of a visible productivity jump from AI proves nothing, because a real ten percent uplift across the board would be impressive and almost invisible from outside. CMCasey Muratori26 Aug 2026similar wording
• There is a world where AI coding tools change nothing except that engineers are happier, and for a lot of companies that is not good enough to keep paying for. DRDax Raad27 May 2026similar wording
• AI writes code well only where a million repositories have already written it; getting it to do something genuinely new remains notoriously hard. TSTim Sweeney30 Apr 2025similar wording
• The personal computer made countless individual tasks easier without delivering the productivity gains everyone expected, and AI may go the same way. CNCal Newport29 Jun 2026similar wording

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