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A response to Dario Amodei on AI & clinical trials

Ruxandra Teslo · 28 Feb 2026 · writingruxandrabio.com

5 korrents from this piece

Ruxandra Teslo did not write this page.

Every claim below was made in this piece, quoted word for word and numbered in the order the piece makes them, so you can read it there rather than take our word for it. The sentence above each quote is our reading of the claim, not their wording. Each quote was checked against a stored copy of the page at build time; where the two differ, the quote is the fact.

  1. The current success rate for a drug entering clinical trials is only about ten percent, meaning 90 percent of all drugs fail.
  2. Even if AI can help design more effective drugs, timelines will not compress until we solve the operational and regulatory bottlenecks of trials.
  3. Trials serve two distinct functions: validation — confirming whether a drug works and is safe — and learning, or generating biological data to refine our understanding of a disease, a compound, and the relationship between the two.
  4. Lastly, the duration of a clinical trial does not merely determine how fast an individual therapy reaches patients. It also shapes which diseases attract serious investment and which do not.
  5. But remember that such data can only come from trials in people (mice are nice, but most animal results simply do not translate.)