Every claim below is a statement made in this
recording, quoted word for word and linked to the second it was said, so
you can hear it rather than take our word for it. The wording comes from
the transcript published alongside the recording; the sentence above each
quote is our reading of the claim, not their wording.
Their wordsmy attitude was was always I will only put out stuff if if it's the best that I can do. It's up to the reader to decide if it's good or useful. Um, and if so, if I don't have that, I'm just not going to publish.
Their wordsthere's a there's a series of of questions that I ask to to diagnose why is growth slowing in this order because it's one of these things where the first one that's a problem, if you don't fix that, it doesn't matter if you fix one of the ones below.
Their wordsThey actually had the budget and bought the stupid thing. Then they went through onboarding and invested their time etc etc. That is a crazy gauntlet that almost no one gets through.
Their wordsMarketing grows only as fast as you can improve marketing. We all know that's quite hard actually. It's linear. It's hard to find new channels that aren't trivial. Like, it's hard. Of course, we're going to do it, but like it it's hard. Whereas, cancellations grow automatically as you grow, right? So, cancellations always overtake marketing for this reason.
Their wordsSo let's suppose you add 100 customers a month and you have 5% cancellation. So 100 divided by 5% is 2,000. So a company like that will never have more than 2,000 customers.
Their wordsAnd I realized it was the first one on the list and I thought, huh, I wonder if people are just picking the first one. So then then we randomized the list so everyone saw a different order of the list and now all the items were picked equally
Their wordsWhat you want to do is say what made you cancel? In other words, what about the product or situation or whatever caused the cancellation? Just phrasing it that way, you get much better results.
Their wordsAnd that is never ever ever the reason. How do I know? Because they already looked at your homepage, read all the stuff, saw what you promised, looked at the pricing page, and decided to buy it.
Their wordsAnother as a sidebar, I hate the idea of a root cause. Complex systems do not have one root cause. They often have many interlocking things that could be done to detect earlier or to change it or to reduce or and not one root cause.
Their wordsUm all almost all companies have a whole lot more uh cancellation in the first day, 30 days, 90 days, depends, right? But the first period than the whole rest of the customer's life. And also small changes in the onboarding can have large effects on cancellation.
Their wordsif you think about it, it sort of makes sense because the LLM is an averaging machine, right? It's predicting the most likely that's an averaging kind of a thing. And so when what you're looking for is a kind of average, it's usually pretty good. So, summarization, topics, themes. But when you're asking for like what is interesting and not average, it's actually pretty bad at it.
Their wordsSo what usually h what often happens is you raise prices and signups don't change. When I say signups, I mean the like signups per month, you know, the rate at sign or signups go up. This happens all the time.
Their wordsjust think about a company with a thousand employees and 400 million in revenue or whatever. And um if they see a product that's, you know, $2 a month or even $100 a month, their thought is like, well, that can't be good enough. They're not mature enough. It's not going to do enough.
Their wordsthe the largest point is pricing is not just the number on the page. It's positioning. It's how their budgets work. It's how it's structured.
Their wordsIt's just that it caps this price and this value that is they perceive that you do. Whereas if you deliver more of the value that they already value, it's I don't want to say uncapped completely, but like the cap is maybe an order of magnitude higher than saving.
Their wordsWhen you have a loss, a percentage loss, you have to have a greater percentage gain just to get back to where you were. In this case, a loss of 20% requires a gain of 25% to get back to where you were.
Their wordsthere should be no way to get a big company like a public SAS company Unless NR is greater than 100, like otherwise cancellation should just win. And that is in fact the case.
Their wordsBut that's not what happens. What happens is it starts with an S-curve and then it starts sagging. Its butt starts sagging down. So, I wrote an article about this called the elephant curve, which is what I named it, right?
Their wordsAnd so the not growing part, what I like to say is maybe the you and if you are not growing, you're dying is you the person as opposed to you the company.
Their wordsBut the truth is we don't know what the probability is. We don't know what the probability curves look like. We actually can't use expected value.
Their wordsAB testing doesn't work very well and it doesn't work on most things. It won't work on strategy or vision or insights like nothing actually important to the success of the company. You don't AB test whether Uber is a good idea.