Expected value cannot decide the once-only decisions, because you know neither the probabilities nor the shape of their curves.

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• Every machine-learning deployment that has paid off so far left a person making the decision, which is the only reason imperfect models were useful. CFChelsea Finn12 Aug 2026similar wording
• Planning a day or a week in advance works because it pays the brain's decision cost once rather than dozens of times. MHMasud Husain24 Aug 2026similar wording
• A giving approach that ranks options only by estimated expected value, with no preference for better-grounded estimates, is flawed. HKHolden Karnofsky18 Aug 2011similar wording
• Nuclear safety should be pursued by reducing the consequence of an accident rather than its odds, because something unpredictable always happens. ITIsaiah Taylor15 Aug 2026similar wording
• The goal was never good simulation; it was answering counterfactuals, and a value function does that job as well as a simulator does. SLSergey Levine12 Sept 2025similar wording

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