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Expected value cannot decide the once-only decisions, because you know neither the probabilities nor the shape of their curves.

Drawn from what Jason Cohen said

Mental modelProbabilistic thinking

On the topicWhich mental models help you think better?under our view: Think in probabilities, and bet big only when the odds are yours

What Jason Cohen actually said

  1. Jason Cohen Founder of WP Engine and Smart Bear
    But the truth is we don't know what the probability is. We don't know what the probability curves look like. We actually can't use expected value.

    Where this was said

    Watch from 1:28:43 plays here

    ↗The surprising advice from a founder who built 2 unicorns | Jason Cohen (WP Engine)youtube.com

    25 Jan 2026 · video · 1h 46m · spoken · machine transcript

    All 24 korrents from this recordingthis one is 22nd

Added to korrents 7 Sept 2026 · How quotes work · Something wrong? Tell us

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