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← Expected value cannot decide the once-only decisions, because you know…
17 connected korrents · 17 moments from 18 Aug 2011 to 21 Oct 2026.
Everything filed under LLMs
LLMs
Everything filed under scaling laws
scaling laws
Everything filed under OpenAI
OpenAI
Everything filed under behavioural science
behavioural science
Everything filed under AI agents
AI agents
Everything filed under energy
energy
Everything filed under ambition
ambition
Everything filed under mental models
mental models Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Read this korrent: Expected value cannot decide the once-only decisions, because you know neither the probabilities nor the shape of their curves. Expected value cannot decide the once-only decisions, because you know neither the probabilities nor the shape of their curves. Last stated 9 months ago
25 Jan 2026
JC
Jason Cohen — holds since 2026-01-25 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A decision cannot be judged by its outcome, because good decisions fail through no fault of the decider and bad ones succeed by luck. — tap to centre the map on it A decision cannot be judged by its outcome, because good decisions fail through no fault of the decider and bad ones succeed by luck. Last stated 4 years ago
9 Aug 2022
GK
Gary Klein — holds since 2022-08-09 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The most consequential decisions about the shape of the future should not be made by a handful of AI labs. — tap to centre the map on it The most consequential decisions about the shape of the future should not be made by a handful of AI labs. Last stated 6 months ago
10 Apr 2026
SA
Sam Altman — holds since 2026-04-10 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Every machine-learning deployment that has paid off so far left a person making the decision, which is the only reason imperfect models were useful. — tap to centre the map on it Every machine-learning deployment that has paid off so far left a person making the decision, which is the only reason imperfect models were useful. Last stated 2 months ago
12 Aug 2026
CF
Chelsea Finn — holds since 2026-08-12 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Planning a day or a week in advance works because it pays the brain's decision cost once rather than dozens of times. — tap to centre the map on it Planning a day or a week in advance works because it pays the brain's decision cost once rather than dozens of times. Last stated 2 months ago
24 Aug 2026
MH
Masud Husain — holds since 2026-08-24 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Teaching people a decision model is useless, because the intuition it rests on is built from experience and has no shortcut. — tap to centre the map on it Teaching people a decision model is useless, because the intuition it rests on is built from experience and has no shortcut. Last stated 4 years ago
9 Aug 2022
GK
Gary Klein — holds since 2022-08-09 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A giving approach that ranks options only by estimated expected value, with no preference for better-grounded estimates, is flawed. — tap to centre the map on it A giving approach that ranks options only by estimated expected value, with no preference for better-grounded estimates, is flawed. Last stated 15 years ago
18 Aug 2011
HK
Holden Karnofsky — holds since 2011-08-18 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Under uncertainty, the best decision is the one that preserves the most future options. — tap to centre the map on it Under uncertainty, the best decision is the one that preserves the most future options. Last stated 3 years ago
17 Apr 2024
CH
Chip Huyen — holds since 2024-04-17 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The future is not determined, and it can be navigated better by understanding the likelihood of events that could affect us. — tap to centre the map on it The future is not determined, and it can be navigated better by understanding the likelihood of events that could affect us. Last stated 8 years ago
14 May 2018
SP
Shane Parrish — holds since 2018-05-14 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A badly written AI outbound email is evidence of a bad vendor, not of a limit of AI. — tap to centre the map on it A badly written AI outbound email is evidence of a bad vendor, not of a limit of AI. Last stated 10 months ago
1 Jan 2026
JL
Jason Lemkin — holds since 2026-01-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A bigger context window does not give you a smarter model; the intelligence of the model is what decides how much of that window it can actually attend to. — tap to centre the map on it A bigger context window does not give you a smarter model; the intelligence of the model is what decides how much of that window it can actually attend to. Last stated 3 months ago
15 Jul 2026
DH
Dex Horthy — holds since 2026-07-15 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A body of publications is easy for AI models to consume via pretraining corpora but cumbersome for most humans due to CAPTCHAs, accounts, and paywalls. — tap to centre the map on it A body of publications is easy for AI models to consume via pretraining corpora but cumbersome for most humans due to CAPTCHAs, accounts, and paywalls. Last stated a month ago
17 Sept 2026
PC
Patrick Collison — holds since 2026-09-17 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A PHP vulnerability found with GPT-5.6 Sol will cause havoc this week. — tap to centre the map on it A PHP vulnerability found with GPT-5.6 Sol will cause havoc this week. Last stated yesterday
21 Oct 2026
PS
Peter Steinberger — holds since 2026-10-21 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A startup should not begin life as a nonprofit and bolt a for-profit arm on later, whatever OpenAI's own history suggests. — tap to centre the map on it A startup should not begin life as a nonprofit and bolt a for-profit arm on later, whatever OpenAI's own history suggests. Last stated 3 years ago
18 Mar 2024
SA
Sam Altman — holds since 2024-03-18 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A tiny language model inventing a plausible-sounding name is the same phenomenon as a large one confidently stating a false fact. — tap to centre the map on it A tiny language model inventing a plausible-sounding name is the same phenomenon as a large one confidently stating a false fact. Last stated 8 months ago
12 Feb 2026
AK
Andrej Karpathy — holds since 2026-02-12 — tap for who they are
Same subject: "Scaling" was powerful because it was one word: naming a research direction is what tells a whole field what to do next. — tap to centre the map on it "Scaling" was powerful because it was one word: naming a research direction is what tells a whole field what to do next. Last stated 11 months ago
25 Nov 2025
IS
Ilya Sutskever — holds since 2025-11-25 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A benchmark result should be reported under a stated budget, or as a curve against test-time compute — never as a single number. — tap to centre the map on it A benchmark result should be reported under a stated budget, or as a curve against test-time compute — never as a single number. Last stated 4 months ago
26 Jun 2026
NB
Noam Brown — holds since 2026-06-26 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A lab should spend most of its compute on research rather than on building the next model, because research is where the tenfold yearly efficiency gains come from. — tap to centre the map on it A lab should spend most of its compute on research rather than on building the next model, because research is where the tenfold yearly efficiency gains come from. Last stated 7 months ago
13 Mar 2026
DP
Dylan Patel — holds since 2026-03-13 — tap for who they are
At the centre
Expected value cannot decide the once-only decisions, because you know neither the probabilities nor the shape of their curves.
Holds Read this korrent →
A decision cannot be judged by its outcome, because good decisions fail through no fault of the decider and bad ones succeed by luck.
Holds
The most consequential decisions about the shape of the future should not be made by a handful of AI labs.
Holds
Every machine-learning deployment that has paid off so far left a person making the decision, which is the only reason imperfect models were useful.
Holds
Planning a day or a week in advance works because it pays the brain's decision cost once rather than dozens of times.
Holds
Teaching people a decision model is useless, because the intuition it rests on is built from experience and has no shortcut.
Holds
A giving approach that ranks options only by estimated expected value, with no preference for better-grounded estimates, is flawed.
Holds
Under uncertainty, the best decision is the one that preserves the most future options.
Holds
The future is not determined, and it can be navigated better by understanding the likelihood of events that could affect us.
Holds
A badly written AI outbound email is evidence of a bad vendor, not of a limit of AI.
Holds
A bigger context window does not give you a smarter model; the intelligence of the model is what decides how much of that window it can actually attend to.
Holds
A body of publications is easy for AI models to consume via pretraining corpora but cumbersome for most humans due to CAPTCHAs, accounts, and paywalls.
Holds
A PHP vulnerability found with GPT-5.6 Sol will cause havoc this week.
Holds
A startup should not begin life as a nonprofit and bolt a for-profit arm on later, whatever OpenAI's own history suggests.
Holds
A tiny language model inventing a plausible-sounding name is the same phenomenon as a large one confidently stating a false fact.
Holds
"Scaling" was powerful because it was one word: naming a research direction is what tells a whole field what to do next.
Holds
A benchmark result should be reported under a stated budget, or as a curve against test-time compute — never as a single number.
Holds
A lab should spend most of its compute on research rather than on building the next model, because research is where the tenfold yearly efficiency gains come from.
Holds