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← Expected value cannot decide the once-only decisions, because you know…
17 connected korrents · 16 moments on record from 3 Nov 2008 to 24 Aug 2026.
Everything filed under energy
energy
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solar
Everything filed under nuclear power
nuclear power
Everything filed under market efficiency
market efficiency Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Read this korrent: Expected value cannot decide the once-only decisions, because you know neither the probabilities nor the shape of their curves. Expected value cannot decide the once-only decisions, because you know neither the probabilities nor the shape of their curves. Last stated 7 months ago
25 Jan 2026
JC
Jason Cohen — holds since 2026-01-25 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Every machine-learning deployment that has paid off so far left a person making the decision, which is the only reason imperfect models were useful. — tap to centre the map on it Every machine-learning deployment that has paid off so far left a person making the decision, which is the… Last stated 4 weeks ago
12 Aug 2026
CF
Chelsea Finn — holds since 2026-08-12 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Planning a day or a week in advance works because it pays the brain's decision cost once rather than dozens of times. — tap to centre the map on it Planning a day or a week in advance works because it pays the brain's decision cost once rather than dozens of times. Last stated 2 weeks ago
24 Aug 2026
MH
Masud Husain — holds since 2026-08-24 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A giving approach that ranks options only by estimated expected value, with no preference for better-grounded estimates, is flawed. — tap to centre the map on it A giving approach that ranks options only by estimated expected value, with no preference for better-grounded… Last stated 15 years ago
18 Aug 2011
HK
Holden Karnofsky — holds since 2011-08-18 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Nuclear safety should be pursued by reducing the consequence of an accident rather than its odds, because something unpredictable always happens. — tap to centre the map on it Nuclear safety should be pursued by reducing the consequence of an accident rather than its odds, because… Last stated 3 weeks ago
15 Aug 2026
IT
Isaiah Taylor — holds since 2026-08-15 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The goal was never good simulation; it was answering counterfactuals, and a value function does that job as well as a simulator does. — tap to centre the map on it The goal was never good simulation; it was answering counterfactuals, and a value function does that job as well… Last stated 12 months ago
12 Sept 2025
SL
Sergey Levine — holds since 2025-09-12 — tap for who they are
Same subject: We should act on the assumption that we have almost no idea what the best futures would look like, so committing today to any particular vision would be a great mistake. — tap to centre the map on it We should act on the assumption that we have almost no idea what the best futures would look like, so committing… Last stated a year ago
3 Aug 2025
WM
William MacAskill — holds since 2025-08-03 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Even the most advanced AI cannot be followed blindly in investing, where value added is zero-sum and what is widely known is therefore worth little. — tap to centre the map on it Even the most advanced AI cannot be followed blindly in investing, where value added is zero-sum and what is widely… Last stated 3 months ago
10 Jun 2026
RD
Ray Dalio — holds since 2026-06-10 — tap for who they are
Same subject: As much as possible, one should avoid predicting the future and instead wait for it to become the present and reveal what is actually needed. — tap to centre the map on it As much as possible, one should avoid predicting the future and instead wait for it to become the present and… Last stated a year ago
14 May 2025
DS
Derek Sivers — holds since 2025-05-14 — tap for who they are
Same subject: "Food from thin air" is not from thin air: it runs on water, minerals, ammonia and industrial plant. — tap to centre the map on it "Food from thin air" is not from thin air: it runs on water, minerals, ammonia and industrial plant. Last stated 2 months ago
30 Jun 2026
CS
Chris Smaje — holds since 2026-06-30 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A country outside the AI supply chain should just buy the index — which works only in the world where AI ends up commoditised rather than concentrated. — tap to centre the map on it A country outside the AI supply chain should just buy the index — which works only in the world where AI ends up… Last stated 3 months ago
4 Jun 2026
AI
Alex Imas — holds since 2026-06-04 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A future of constrained energy will need more people working the land, and that is not the same as going back to the past. — tap to centre the map on it A future of constrained energy will need more people working the land, and that is not the same as going back to the… Last stated 2 months ago
30 Jun 2026
CS
Chris Smaje — holds since 2026-06-30 — tap for who they are
Same subject: American manufacturing output cannot meaningfully rise without first building large amounts of new electricity generation. — tap to centre the map on it American manufacturing output cannot meaningfully rise without first building large amounts of new electricity… Last stated a year ago
6 Apr 2025
MH
Molson Hart — holds since 2025-04-06 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Europe cannot meet its energy needs from renewables alone and will need nuclear power, solar power from deserts elsewhere, or both. — tap to centre the map on it Europe cannot meet its energy needs from renewables alone and will need nuclear power, solar power from deserts… Last stated 18 years ago
3 Nov 2008
DM
David MacKay — holds since 2008-11-03 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Most nuclear companies will not have this solved by 2031, and many still will not by 2035, because they have the wrong mindset. — tap to centre the map on it Most nuclear companies will not have this solved by 2031, and many still will not by 2035, because they have the… Last stated 3 weeks ago
15 Aug 2026
IT
Isaiah Taylor — holds since 2026-08-15 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A data centre powered by solar and batteries alone needs an array so oversized that the design is not worth building. — tap to centre the map on it A data centre powered by solar and batteries alone needs an array so oversized that the design is not worth building. Last stated 2 years ago
18 Apr 2024
AV
Austin Vernon — holds since 2024-04-18 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A solar panel is a manufactured object that produces wealth rather than consuming it, at a hundred times the rate of the best farmland. — tap to centre the map on it A solar panel is a manufactured object that produces wealth rather than consuming it, at a hundred… Last stated 2 years ago
9 Nov 2024
CH
Casey Handmer — holds since 2024-11-09 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A solar system holding a trillion humans is the right thing to aim at, because a population that size would have a thousand Mozarts and a thousand Einsteins alive at once. — tap to centre the map on it A solar system holding a trillion humans is the right thing to aim at, because a population that size would… Last stated 3 years ago
14 Dec 2023
JB
Jeff Bezos — holds since 2023-12-14 — tap for who they are
At the centre
Expected value cannot decide the once-only decisions, because you know neither the probabilities nor the shape of their curves.
Holds JC Jason CohenRead this korrent →
Every machine-learning deployment that has paid off so far left a person making the decision, which is the only reason imperfect models were useful.
Holds CF Chelsea Finn
Planning a day or a week in advance works because it pays the brain's decision cost once rather than dozens of times.
Holds MH Masud Husain
A giving approach that ranks options only by estimated expected value, with no preference for better-grounded estimates, is flawed.
Holds HK Holden Karnofsky
Nuclear safety should be pursued by reducing the consequence of an accident rather than its odds, because something unpredictable always happens.
Holds IT Isaiah Taylor
The goal was never good simulation; it was answering counterfactuals, and a value function does that job as well as a simulator does.
Holds SL Sergey Levine
We should act on the assumption that we have almost no idea what the best futures would look like, so committing today to any particular vision would be a great mistake.
Holds WM William MacAskill
Even the most advanced AI cannot be followed blindly in investing, where value added is zero-sum and what is widely known is therefore worth little.
Holds
As much as possible, one should avoid predicting the future and instead wait for it to become the present and reveal what is actually needed.
Holds
"Food from thin air" is not from thin air: it runs on water, minerals, ammonia and industrial plant.
Holds CS Chris Smaje
A country outside the AI supply chain should just buy the index — which works only in the world where AI ends up commoditised rather than concentrated.
Holds AI Alex Imas
A future of constrained energy will need more people working the land, and that is not the same as going back to the past.
Holds CS Chris Smaje
American manufacturing output cannot meaningfully rise without first building large amounts of new electricity generation.
Holds MH Molson Hart
Europe cannot meet its energy needs from renewables alone and will need nuclear power, solar power from deserts elsewhere, or both.
Holds DM David MacKay
Most nuclear companies will not have this solved by 2031, and many still will not by 2035, because they have the wrong mindset.
Holds IT Isaiah Taylor
A data centre powered by solar and batteries alone needs an array so oversized that the design is not worth building.
Holds AV Austin Vernon
A solar panel is a manufactured object that produces wealth rather than consuming it, at a hundred times the rate of the best farmland.
Holds CH Casey Handmer
A solar system holding a trillion humans is the right thing to aim at, because a population that size would have a thousand Mozarts and a thousand Einsteins alive at once.
Holds JB Jeff Bezos