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← Forecasting AI capability progress is more like solving a…
17 connected korrents · 15 moments on record from 24 Feb 2018 to 18 Sept 2026.
Everything filed under AGI
AGI
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reinforcement learning
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LLMs Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Read this korrent: Forecasting AI capability progress is more like solving a thermodynamics equation than predicting chaotic, short-term dynamics. Forecasting AI capability progress is more like solving a thermodynamics equation than predicting chaotic, short-term dynamics. Last stated 7 months ago
18 Feb 2026
SH
Samuel Hammond — holds since 2026-02-18 — tap for who they are
Same subject: AI model capability progress is not going to slow down soon — tap to centre the map on it AI model capability progress is not going to slow down soon Last stated 3 weeks ago
3 Sept 2026
AR
Armin Ronacher — holds since 2026-09-03 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Confidence in monitoring, not capability research, will become the binding constraint on AI progress. — tap to centre the map on it Confidence in monitoring, not capability research, will become the binding constraint on AI progress. Last stated 2 weeks ago
6 Sept 2026
JP
Jakub Pachocki — holds since 2026-09-06 — tap for who they are
Same subject: AI progress is faster than people expect, and ordinary scaling can be enough to solve problems that looked very hard. — tap to centre the map on it AI progress is faster than people expect, and ordinary scaling can be enough to solve problems that looked very hard. Last stated 2 years ago
2 Feb 2025
AC
Ajeya Cotra — holds since 2023-08-29 — tap for who they are
SA
Scott Alexander — holds since 2022-09-12 — tap for who they are
MB
Miles Brundage — holds since 2025-02-02 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Underestimating near-term AI progress is itself a danger, which is why researchers should register their forecasts in public. — tap to centre the map on it Underestimating near-term AI progress is itself a danger, which is why researchers should register their forecasts in public. Last stated 3 years ago
29 Aug 2023
AC
Ajeya Cotra — holds since 2023-08-29 — tap for who they are
Same subject: AI model capabilities have already advanced beyond humanity's ability to understand or control them. — tap to centre the map on it AI model capabilities have already advanced beyond humanity's ability to understand or control them. Last stated 3 weeks ago
1 Sept 2026
CN
Casey Newton — holds since 2026-09-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: AI progress is jagged: models are becoming superhuman at math and software engineering while remaining far weaker at intuition, creativity, and other forms of human reasoning. — tap to centre the map on it AI progress is jagged: models are becoming superhuman at math and software engineering while remaining far weaker at intuition, creativity, and other forms of human reasoning. Last stated 2 weeks ago
10 Sept 2026
NL
Nathan Lambert — holds since 2026-09-10 — tap for who they are
Same subject: No one fully understands the consequences of how capable AI is becoming. — tap to centre the map on it No one fully understands the consequences of how capable AI is becoming. Last stated 3 weeks ago
1 Sept 2026
SA
Sam Altman — holds since 2026-09-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Change from already-capable AI is inevitable no matter how the frontier is paced, though it will be uneven and not all at once. — tap to centre the map on it Change from already-capable AI is inevitable no matter how the frontier is paced, though it will be uneven and not all at once. Last stated 3 days ago
18 Sept 2026
EM
Ethan Mollick — holds since 2026-09-18 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A country outside the AI supply chain should just buy the index — which works only in the world where AI ends up commoditised rather than concentrated. — tap to centre the map on it A country outside the AI supply chain should just buy the index — which works only in the world where AI ends up commoditised rather than concentrated. Last stated 4 months ago
4 Jun 2026
AI
Alex Imas — holds since 2026-06-04 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A poor country should prioritise owning a piece of AI over retraining its workers, but it should not bet everything on that. — tap to centre the map on it A poor country should prioritise owning a piece of AI over retraining its workers, but it should not bet everything on that. Last stated 4 months ago
4 Jun 2026
PT
Phil Trammell — holds since 2026-06-04 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A slow takeoff is significantly more likely than a fast one: AI that is nearly as powerful will have transformed the world before the incredibly powerful kind arrives. — tap to centre the map on it A slow takeoff is significantly more likely than a fast one: AI that is nearly as powerful will have transformed the world before the incredibly powerful kind arrives. Last stated 9 years ago
24 Feb 2018
PC
Paul Christiano — holds since 2018-02-24 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A physical AI company needs three AIs, not one — the agent, the simulator and the critic — turning deployment into a flywheel. — tap to centre the map on it A physical AI company needs three AIs, not one — the agent, the simulator and the critic — turning deployment into a flywheel. Last stated 2 months ago
3 Aug 2026
DD
Dmitri Dolgov — holds since 2026-08-03 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A verifiable task can be optimised by reinforcement learning until a neural network performs it extremely well. — tap to centre the map on it A verifiable task can be optimised by reinforcement learning until a neural network performs it extremely well. Last stated 10 months ago
17 Nov 2025
AK
Andrej Karpathy — holds since 2025-11-17 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Building a realistic simulator is exactly as hard as building the agent, because the simulator is itself a large AI model. — tap to centre the map on it Building a realistic simulator is exactly as hard as building the agent, because the simulator is itself a large AI model. Last stated 2 months ago
3 Aug 2026
DD
Dmitri Dolgov — holds since 2026-08-03 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A startup should not begin life as a nonprofit and bolt a for-profit arm on later, whatever OpenAI's own history suggests. — tap to centre the map on it A startup should not begin life as a nonprofit and bolt a for-profit arm on later, whatever OpenAI's own history suggests. Last stated 3 years ago
18 Mar 2024
SA
Sam Altman — holds since 2024-03-18 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Advertising was a necessary phase for the internet but a momentary industry, and an AI people pay for is better because they know the answers are not influenced by advertisers. — tap to centre the map on it Advertising was a necessary phase for the internet but a momentary industry, and an AI people pay for is better because they know the answers are not influenced by advertisers. Last stated 3 years ago
18 Mar 2024
SA
Sam Altman — holds since 2024-03-18 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Aggressive competitive tactics around a math research breakthrough risk having a chilling effect on that field of research. — tap to centre the map on it Aggressive competitive tactics around a math research breakthrough risk having a chilling effect on that field of research. Last stated a week ago
11 Sept 2026
BT
Ben Thompson — holds since 2026-09-11 — tap for who they are
At the centre
Forecasting AI capability progress is more like solving a thermodynamics equation than predicting chaotic, short-term dynamics.
Holds Read this korrent →
AI model capability progress is not going to slow down soon
Holds
Confidence in monitoring, not capability research, will become the binding constraint on AI progress.
Holds
AI progress is faster than people expect, and ordinary scaling can be enough to solve problems that looked very hard.
Holds
Underestimating near-term AI progress is itself a danger, which is why researchers should register their forecasts in public.
Holds
AI model capabilities have already advanced beyond humanity's ability to understand or control them.
Holds
AI progress is jagged: models are becoming superhuman at math and software engineering while remaining far weaker at intuition, creativity, and other forms of human reasoning.
Holds
No one fully understands the consequences of how capable AI is becoming.
Holds
Change from already-capable AI is inevitable no matter how the frontier is paced, though it will be uneven and not all at once.
Holds
A country outside the AI supply chain should just buy the index — which works only in the world where AI ends up commoditised rather than concentrated.
Holds
A poor country should prioritise owning a piece of AI over retraining its workers, but it should not bet everything on that.
Holds
A slow takeoff is significantly more likely than a fast one: AI that is nearly as powerful will have transformed the world before the incredibly powerful kind arrives.
Holds
A physical AI company needs three AIs, not one — the agent, the simulator and the critic — turning deployment into a flywheel.
Holds
A verifiable task can be optimised by reinforcement learning until a neural network performs it extremely well.
Holds
Building a realistic simulator is exactly as hard as building the agent, because the simulator is itself a large AI model.
Holds
A startup should not begin life as a nonprofit and bolt a for-profit arm on later, whatever OpenAI's own history suggests.
Holds
Advertising was a necessary phase for the internet but a momentary industry, and an AI people pay for is better because they know the answers are not influenced by advertisers.
Holds
Aggressive competitive tactics around a math research breakthrough risk having a chilling effect on that field of research.
Holds