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17 connected korrents · 18 moments from 15 Jul 2021 to 7 Oct 2026.
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AGI Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Read this korrent: Forecasting AI capability progress is more like solving a thermodynamics equation than predicting chaotic, short-term dynamics. Forecasting AI capability progress is more like solving a thermodynamics equation than predicting chaotic, short-term dynamics. Last stated 9 months ago
18 Feb 2026
SH
Samuel Hammond — holds since 2026-02-18 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Whether AI capability progress has slowed down cannot be settled, since reasonable observers can interpret the same evidence differently. — tap to centre the map on it Whether AI capability progress has slowed down cannot be settled, since reasonable observers can interpret the same evidence differently. Last stated 2 years ago
18 Dec 2024
AN
Arvind Narayanan — holds since 2024-12-18 — tap for who they are
Same subject: AI capability progress in a given skill tends to arrive as a sudden phase change rather than as steady improvement. — tap to centre the map on it AI capability progress in a given skill tends to arrive as a sudden phase change rather than as steady improvement. Last stated 2 months ago
24 Aug 2026
JC
Jack Clark — holds since 2026-08-24 — tap for who they are
Same subject: AI could potentially reach a level of capability where it can perform all aspects of mathematical problem solving, theory building, and definition formulation. — tap to centre the map on it AI could potentially reach a level of capability where it can perform all aspects of mathematical problem solving, theory building, and definition formulation. Last stated 3 months ago
26 Jul 2026
TG
Timothy Gowers — holds since 2026-07-26 — tap for who they are
Same subject: AI progress from 2024 to 2026 has been faster than the progress seen from 2022 to 2024. — tap to centre the map on it AI progress from 2024 to 2026 has been faster than the progress seen from 2022 to 2024. Last stated 6 months ago
28 Apr 2026
KP
Kelsey Piper — holds since 2026-04-28 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Confidence in monitoring, not capability research, will become the binding constraint on AI progress. — tap to centre the map on it Confidence in monitoring, not capability research, will become the binding constraint on AI progress. Last stated 2 months ago
6 Sept 2026
JP
Jakub Pachocki — holds since 2026-09-06 — tap for who they are
Same subject: AI model capabilities have not slowed down so far, and their progress probably won't stop anytime soon. — tap to centre the map on it AI model capabilities have not slowed down so far, and their progress probably won't stop anytime soon. Last stated 2 months ago
3 Sept 2026
AR
Armin Ronacher — holds since 2026-09-03 — tap for who they are
Same subject: AI progress is faster than people expect, and ordinary scaling can be enough to solve problems that looked very hard. — tap to centre the map on it AI progress is faster than people expect, and ordinary scaling can be enough to solve problems that looked very hard. Last stated 2 years ago
2 Feb 2025
AC
Ajeya Cotra — holds since 2023-08-29 — tap for who they are
SA
Scott Alexander — holds since 2022-09-12 — tap for who they are
MB
Miles Brundage — holds since 2025-02-02 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Underestimating near-term AI progress is itself a danger, which is why researchers should register their forecasts in public. — tap to centre the map on it Underestimating near-term AI progress is itself a danger, which is why researchers should register their forecasts in public. Last stated 3 years ago
29 Aug 2023
AC
Ajeya Cotra — holds since 2023-08-29 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A compound's AI origin story is not by itself a reason to expect it to do better in the clinic. — tap to centre the map on it A compound's AI origin story is not by itself a reason to expect it to do better in the clinic. Last stated 2 years ago
13 May 2024
DL
Derek Lowe — holds since 2024-05-13 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A computational discovery platform does not make a biotech fast, because the thousand other steps of drug development are still the bottleneck. — tap to centre the map on it A computational discovery platform does not make a biotech fast, because the thousand other steps of drug development are still the bottleneck. Last stated 2 years ago
17 Sept 2024
AT
Alex Telford — holds since 2024-09-17 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A computational method can regularly predict protein structures with atomic accuracy even when no similar structure is known. — tap to centre the map on it A computational method can regularly predict protein structures with atomic accuracy even when no similar structure is known. Last stated 5 years ago
15 Jul 2021
DH
Demis Hassabis — holds since 2021-07-15 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Accurate computational approaches are needed to close the protein structural coverage gap and enable large-scale structural bioinformatics. — tap to centre the map on it Accurate computational approaches are needed to close the protein structural coverage gap and enable large-scale structural bioinformatics. Last stated 5 years ago
15 Jul 2021
DH
Demis Hassabis — holds since 2021-07-15 — tap for who they are
Same subject: AI models can be more accurate than physical experiments by averaging out noise, incorporating priors from large datasets, and interpolating between data points. — tap to centre the map on it AI models can be more accurate than physical experiments by averaging out noise, incorporating priors from large datasets, and interpolating between data points. Last stated 11 months ago
23 Nov 2025
EH
Elliot Hershberg — holds since 2025-11-23 — tap for who they are
Same subject: AI will not produce a big breakthrough in biological understanding any time soon, because biology has nothing like the clean, complete, high-quality data that made protein-structure prediction work. — tap to centre the map on it AI will not produce a big breakthrough in biological understanding any time soon, because biology has nothing like the clean, complete, high-quality data that made protein-structure prediction work. Last stated 2 years ago
19 Sept 2024
DL
Derek Lowe — holds since 2024-09-19 — tap for who they are
Same subject: AI could compete with human mathematicians once it acquires a mathematical sense of smell: knowing which way of splitting a problem makes it easier rather than harder. — tap to centre the map on it AI could compete with human mathematicians once it acquires a mathematical sense of smell: knowing which way of splitting a problem makes it easier rather than harder. Last stated a year ago
14 Jun 2025
TT
Terence Tao — holds since 2025-06-14 — tap for who they are
Same subject: AI excels at breadth and human experts at depth, which makes them complementary and makes today's depth-focused way of doing science the wrong shape. — tap to centre the map on it AI excels at breadth and human experts at depth, which makes them complementary and makes today's depth-focused way of doing science the wrong shape. Last stated 8 months ago
20 Mar 2026
TT
Terence Tao — holds since 2026-03-20 — tap for who they are
Same subject: AI has solved in an afternoon of compute maths problems that stumped the best human minds for decades. — tap to centre the map on it AI has solved in an afternoon of compute maths problems that stumped the best human minds for decades. Last stated 4 weeks ago
7 Oct 2026
AA
Azeem Azhar — holds since 2026-10-07 — tap for who they are
At the centre
Forecasting AI capability progress is more like solving a thermodynamics equation than predicting chaotic, short-term dynamics.
Holds Read this korrent →
Whether AI capability progress has slowed down cannot be settled, since reasonable observers can interpret the same evidence differently.
Holds
AI capability progress in a given skill tends to arrive as a sudden phase change rather than as steady improvement.
Holds
AI could potentially reach a level of capability where it can perform all aspects of mathematical problem solving, theory building, and definition formulation.
Holds
AI progress from 2024 to 2026 has been faster than the progress seen from 2022 to 2024.
Holds
Confidence in monitoring, not capability research, will become the binding constraint on AI progress.
Holds
AI model capabilities have not slowed down so far, and their progress probably won't stop anytime soon.
Holds
AI progress is faster than people expect, and ordinary scaling can be enough to solve problems that looked very hard.
Holds
Underestimating near-term AI progress is itself a danger, which is why researchers should register their forecasts in public.
Holds
A compound's AI origin story is not by itself a reason to expect it to do better in the clinic.
Holds
A computational discovery platform does not make a biotech fast, because the thousand other steps of drug development are still the bottleneck.
Holds
A computational method can regularly predict protein structures with atomic accuracy even when no similar structure is known.
Holds
Accurate computational approaches are needed to close the protein structural coverage gap and enable large-scale structural bioinformatics.
Holds
AI models can be more accurate than physical experiments by averaging out noise, incorporating priors from large datasets, and interpolating between data points.
Holds
AI will not produce a big breakthrough in biological understanding any time soon, because biology has nothing like the clean, complete, high-quality data that made protein-structure prediction work.
Holds
AI could compete with human mathematicians once it acquires a mathematical sense of smell: knowing which way of splitting a problem makes it easier rather than harder.
Holds
AI excels at breadth and human experts at depth, which makes them complementary and makes today's depth-focused way of doing science the wrong shape.
Holds
AI has solved in an afternoon of compute maths problems that stumped the best human minds for decades.
Holds