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← AI capability progress in a given skill tends to arrive as a sudden phase change rather than as steady improvement.
17 connected korrents · 20 moments from 12 Sept 2022 to 14 Sept 2026.
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scaling laws Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Read this korrent: AI capability progress in a given skill tends to arrive as a sudden phase change rather than as steady improvement. AI capability progress in a given skill tends to arrive as a sudden phase change rather than as steady improvement. Last stated a month ago
24 Aug 2026
JC
Jack Clark — holds since 2026-08-24 — tap for who they are
Same subject: There will be no sudden fast takeoff in AI, even though model progress is happening faster than ever. — tap to centre the map on it There will be no sudden fast takeoff in AI, even though model progress is happening faster than ever. Last stated 4 weeks ago
6 Sept 2026
AA
Anish Acharya — holds since 2026-09-06 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A deliberately slower pace of AI model releases would still feel faster than the pace of AI improvement that came before it. — tap to centre the map on it A deliberately slower pace of AI model releases would still feel faster than the pace of AI improvement that came before it. Last stated 3 weeks ago
14 Sept 2026
BH
Byrne Hobart — holds since 2026-09-14 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Economic growth from AI waits on change management, not on model capability: the work artifact and the workflow have to change first. — tap to centre the map on it Economic growth from AI waits on change management, not on model capability: the work artifact and the workflow have to change first. Last stated 11 months ago
12 Nov 2025
SN
Satya Nadella — holds since 2025-11-12 — tap for who they are
Same subject: AI has accelerated the pace of development but not the pace of business, and that mismatch will become more and more apparent. — tap to centre the map on it AI has accelerated the pace of development but not the pace of business, and that mismatch will become more and more apparent. Last stated 3 months ago
1 Jul 2026
KB
Kent Beck — holds since 2026-07-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: AI progress is faster than people expect, and ordinary scaling can be enough to solve problems that looked very hard. — tap to centre the map on it AI progress is faster than people expect, and ordinary scaling can be enough to solve problems that looked very hard. Last stated 2 years ago
2 Feb 2025
AC
Ajeya Cotra — holds since 2023-08-29 — tap for who they are
SA
Scott Alexander — holds since 2022-09-12 — tap for who they are
MB
Miles Brundage — holds since 2025-02-02 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The bottleneck in AI is no longer the progress of the models but their diffusion — if the models froze today, the economy would still take decades to absorb what already exists. — tap to centre the map on it The bottleneck in AI is no longer the progress of the models but their diffusion — if the models froze today, the economy would still take decades to absorb what already exists. Last stated 2 months ago
29 Jul 2026
AW
Alexandr Wang — holds since 2026-07-29 — tap for who they are
Same subject: AI model capability progress is not going to slow down soon — tap to centre the map on it AI model capability progress is not going to slow down soon Last stated 4 weeks ago
3 Sept 2026
AR
Armin Ronacher — holds since 2026-09-03 — tap for who they are
Same subject: We are in the phase of artificial jagged intelligence: dramatic progress alongside models that still trip on counting letters. — tap to centre the map on it We are in the phase of artificial jagged intelligence: dramatic progress alongside models that still trip on counting letters. Last stated a year ago
5 Jun 2025
SP
Sundar Pichai — holds since 2025-06-05 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A breached organisation owes its customers a fast and transparent disclosure, and that obligation applies to the person saying it too. — tap to centre the map on it A breached organisation owes its customers a fast and transparent disclosure, and that obligation applies to the person saying it too. Last stated 2 years ago
25 Mar 2025
TH
Troy Hunt — holds since 2025-03-25 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A correctly configured TLS server should send its intermediate certificates, not just its own certificate, to let clients chain back to a trusted root. — tap to centre the map on it A correctly configured TLS server should send its intermediate certificates, not just its own certificate, to let clients chain back to a trusted root. Last stated 7 months ago
16 Feb 2026
JS
Jon Seager — holds since 2026-02-16 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A library that skips certificate verification by default is unsafe and should not be trusted. — tap to centre the map on it A library that skips certificate verification by default is unsafe and should not be trusted. Last stated a year ago
8 Apr 2025
PH
Phil Hagelberg — holds since 2025-04-08 — tap for who they are
Same subject: "Lots of anonymous people worked it out by trial and error" is never the real story of an invention: on closer investigation, identifiable people always turn out to be responsible. — tap to centre the map on it "Lots of anonymous people worked it out by trial and error" is never the real story of an invention: on closer investigation, identifiable people always turn out to be responsible. Last stated 3 years ago
25 Oct 2023
AH
Anton Howes — holds since 2023-10-25 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A business can have market fit, real advantages, and sustained effort behind a hard product and still fail if it doesn't give customers a strong enough reason to switch from what they already use. — tap to centre the map on it A business can have market fit, real advantages, and sustained effort behind a hard product and still fail if it doesn't give customers a strong enough reason to switch from what they already use. Last stated 4 months ago
2 Jun 2026
JJ
Justin Jackson — holds since 2026-06-02 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A capability existing is not the same as a capability being absorbed: how fast a technology changes the world is not set by how fast the technology improves. — tap to centre the map on it A capability existing is not the same as a capability being absorbed: how fast a technology changes the world is not set by how fast the technology improves. Last stated 2 months ago
21 Jul 2026
RT
Ruxandra Teslo — holds since 2026-07-21 — tap for who they are
Same subject: An open weights model from 2025 with a pentest harness could already escape a sandbox and hack most networks; the surprise says more about the sandbox than the model. — tap to centre the map on it An open weights model from 2025 with a pentest harness could already escape a sandbox and hack most networks; the surprise says more about the sandbox than the model. Last stated 2 months ago
22 Jul 2026
TP
Thomas Ptacek — holds since 2026-07-22 — tap for who they are
Same subject: An OpenAI agent swarm was spamming and exploiting RubyGems in May, close in time to the Wiki attacks. — tap to centre the map on it An OpenAI agent swarm was spamming and exploiting RubyGems in May, close in time to the Wiki attacks. Last stated 3 weeks ago
12 Sept 2026
SW
Simon Willison — holds since 2026-09-12 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Frontier AI labs such as Anthropic likely have had internal security incidents similar to OpenAI's HuggingFace attack that were never publicly disclosed. — tap to centre the map on it Frontier AI labs such as Anthropic likely have had internal security incidents similar to OpenAI's HuggingFace attack that were never publicly disclosed. Last stated a month ago
31 Aug 2026
ZM
Zvi Mowshowitz — holds since 2026-08-31 — tap for who they are
At the centre
AI capability progress in a given skill tends to arrive as a sudden phase change rather than as steady improvement.
Holds Read this korrent →
There will be no sudden fast takeoff in AI, even though model progress is happening faster than ever.
Holds
A deliberately slower pace of AI model releases would still feel faster than the pace of AI improvement that came before it.
Holds
Economic growth from AI waits on change management, not on model capability: the work artifact and the workflow have to change first.
Holds
AI has accelerated the pace of development but not the pace of business, and that mismatch will become more and more apparent.
Holds
AI progress is faster than people expect, and ordinary scaling can be enough to solve problems that looked very hard.
Holds
The bottleneck in AI is no longer the progress of the models but their diffusion — if the models froze today, the economy would still take decades to absorb what already exists.
Holds
AI model capability progress is not going to slow down soon
Holds
We are in the phase of artificial jagged intelligence: dramatic progress alongside models that still trip on counting letters.
Holds
A breached organisation owes its customers a fast and transparent disclosure, and that obligation applies to the person saying it too.
Holds
A correctly configured TLS server should send its intermediate certificates, not just its own certificate, to let clients chain back to a trusted root.
Holds
A library that skips certificate verification by default is unsafe and should not be trusted.
Holds
"Lots of anonymous people worked it out by trial and error" is never the real story of an invention: on closer investigation, identifiable people always turn out to be responsible.
Holds
A business can have market fit, real advantages, and sustained effort behind a hard product and still fail if it doesn't give customers a strong enough reason to switch from what they already use.
Holds
A capability existing is not the same as a capability being absorbed: how fast a technology changes the world is not set by how fast the technology improves.
Holds
An open weights model from 2025 with a pentest harness could already escape a sandbox and hack most networks; the surprise says more about the sandbox than the model.
Holds
An OpenAI agent swarm was spamming and exploiting RubyGems in May, close in time to the Wiki attacks.
Holds
Frontier AI labs such as Anthropic likely have had internal security incidents similar to OpenAI's HuggingFace attack that were never publicly disclosed.
Holds