Shane Parrish

Their wordsSpend less time trying to be brilliant and more time trying to avoid obvious stupidity. The kicker? Avoiding stupidity is easier than seeking brilliance.

Their wordsDespite our best intentions, thinking forward increases the odds that you’ll cause harm (iatrogenics). Thinking backward, call it subtractive avoidance or inversion, is less likely to cause harm.

Their wordsInversion often forces you to uncover hidden beliefs about the problem you are trying to solve.

Their wordsIt is not enough to think about difficult problems one way. You need to think about them forwards and backward.

Their wordsTo improve the odds of success in life and business, understand the perimeter of your circle of competence and operate well inside. Over time, work to expand that circle, but don’t fool yourself about where the perimeter is, and never be afraid to say, “I don’t know.”

Their wordsIt did not hurt Mrs. B to have such a narrow area of competence. In fact, one could argue the opposite. Her rigid devotion to that area allowed her to focus.

Their wordsAs we cross the perimeter from what we know to what we don’t, confidence does not diminish as fast as competence. The biggest risk when operating outside of your circle of competence is what you don’t see.

Their wordsWithin your circle of competence, you operate with an advantage. As you approach the perimeter (the limitations of your knowledge), your advantage starts to reduce. As you cross the perimeter, not only does your advantage vanish, but it transfers to other people.

Their wordsThe size of that circle is not important. What is important is knowing when you are approaching the perimeter.

Their wordsSecond-order thinking takes a lot of work. It’s not easy to think in terms of systems, interactions, and time.

Their wordsA lot of extraordinary things in life are the result of things that are first-order negative, second order positive. So just because things look like they have no immediate payoff, doesn’t mean that’s the case.

Their wordsSecond-order thinking is more deliberate. It is thinking in terms of interactions and time, understanding that despite our intentions our interventions often cause harm. Second order thinkers ask themselves the question “And then what?”

Their wordsThe bigger and more challenging an action is, the more activation energy we require to do it.

Their wordsAlthough activation energy is a scientific concept, we can use it as a practical mental model.

Their wordsThe beginning of any complex or challenging endeavor is always the hardest part.

Their wordsSuccessfully thinking in shades of probability means roughly identifying what matters, coming up with a sense of the odds, doing a check on our assumptions, and then making a decision.

Their wordsFar more probability estimates are wrong on the “over-optimistic” side than the “under-optimistic” side.

Their wordsBayesian thinking allows us to use all relevant prior information in making decisions.

Their wordsThe future is far from determined and we can better navigate it by understanding the likelihood of events that could impact us.

Their wordsProbabilistic thinking is essentially trying to estimate, using some tools of math and logic, the likelihood of any specific outcome coming to pass. It is one of the best tools we have to improve the accuracy of our decisions.

Their wordsOccam’s razor is not intended to be a substitute for critical thinking. It is merely a tool to help make that thinking more efficient.

Their wordsA conclusion can’t rely just on its simplicity. It must be backed by empirical evidence.

Their wordsIt is important to note that, like any mental model, Occam’s razor is not foolproof. Use it with care, lest you cut yourself.

Their wordsIt works best as a mental model for making initial conclusions before the full scope of information can be obtained.

Their wordsIn simpler language, Occam’s razor states that the simplest explanation is preferable to one that is more complex. Simple theories are easier to verify. Simple solutions are easier to execute.

Their wordsAlthough empirical evidence is usually necessary for science, thought experiments may be used to develop a hypothesis or to prepare for experimentation.

Their wordsWith the aim of illustrating a particular concept (such as free will or mortality), philosophers explore imagined scenarios. The goal is not to uncover a ‘correct’ answer, but to spark new ideas.

Their wordsThought experiments are a structured manifestation of our natural curiosity about the world.

Their wordsThought experiments push us outside our comfort zone by forcing us to confront questions we cannot answer with ease. They demonstrate gaps in our knowledge and help us recognize the limits of what can be known.

Their wordsThe purpose of a thought experiment is to encourage speculation, logical thinking and to change paradigms.

Their wordsThe default is to assume no malice and forgive everything. But if malice is confirmed, be ruthless.

Their wordsInability or neglect is far more likely to be the cause than malice.

Their wordsThe more we dislike someone or something, the more likely we are to attribute their actions to malice.

Their wordsWhen we assume stupidity rather than malice, we respond differently. Instead of getting defensive or lashing out, we approach the situation with empathy and clarity.

Their wordsThis isn’t to say that genuine malice doesn’t exist. Of course, it does. But in most interactions, stupidity is a far more common explanation than malevolence.

Their wordsHanlon’s razor is a mental safeguard against the temptation to label behavior as malicious when incompetence is the most common response.

Their wordslike joining groups whose default behaviors are your desired behaviors if you want to read more join a book club if you want to run more join a running club your chosen environment rather than your willpower alone will help nudge you towards the best choices

Their wordsthe way around this negotiation with yourself is to work out every day the conversation in your head goes from should I work out today to when and how do I fit this in

Their wordsyour best self can create automatic rules for these situations before you face them your rule can be I don't eat dessert

Their wordseventually everyone loses the battle with willpower sometimes it's really hard to do the things we want to do so we can use safeguards to to change our Behavior

Their wordsone reason the best in the world make consistently good decisions is they rarely find themselves forced into a decision by circumstances they almost always operate from a position of strength

Their wordsit's hard to appreciate that over the long run the average person who constantly puts themselves in a good position beats the genius who finds themsel in a poor position what looks like Talent is often good positioning

Their wordsthe greatest Aid to judgment is starting from a good position this is such a key Insight we often think about making the best decision possible in the moment and forget about whether we're operating from a position of strength or weakness when the moment arises