Every claim below was made in this piece, quoted word for word and numbered in the order the piece makes them, so you can read it there rather than take our word for it. The sentence above each quote is our reading of the claim, not their wording. Each quote was checked against a stored copy of the page at build time; where the two differ, the quote is the fact.
Our reading
Mental modelProbabilistic thinking
Their wordsProbabilistic thinking is essentially trying to estimate, using some tools of math and logic, the likelihood of any specific outcome coming to pass. It is one of the best tools we have to improve the accuracy of our decisions.
Our reading
Mental modelProbabilistic thinking
Their wordsThe future is far from determined and we can better navigate it by understanding the likelihood of events that could impact us.
Our reading
Bayesian thinking lets a person use all relevant prior information when making decisions.
Mental modelProbabilistic thinking
Their wordsBayesian thinking allows us to use all relevant prior information in making decisions.
Our reading
Far more probability estimates err on the over-optimistic side than the under-optimistic side.
Mental modelProbabilistic thinking
Their wordsFar more probability estimates are wrong on the “over-optimistic” side than the “under-optimistic” side.
Our reading
Mental modelProbabilistic thinking
Their wordsSuccessfully thinking in shades of probability means roughly identifying what matters, coming up with a sense of the odds, doing a check on our assumptions, and then making a decision.
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