Our readingWhat is a korrent?
Far more probability estimates err on the over-optimistic side than the under-optimistic side.
Drawn from what Shane Parrish said
Subjectoptimism
What this subject means
optimism Expecting things to go well: whether it is what gets things built, or a bias that forecasts keep paying for.
Mental modelProbabilistic thinking
On the topicWhich mental models help you think better?under our view: Think in probabilities, and bet big only when the odds are yours