Our readingWhat is a korrent?
Thinking in probabilities means roughly identifying what matters, getting a sense of the odds, checking assumptions, and then deciding.
Drawn from what Shane Parrish said
Subjectmental models
What this subject means
mental models Thinking tools borrowed across disciplines: inversion, second-order effects, circles of competence, probabilities, incentives.
Mental modelProbabilistic thinking
On the topicWhich mental models help you think better?under our view: Think in probabilities, and bet big only when the odds are yours