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Probabilistic thinking, estimating the likelihood of outcomes, is one of the best tools for improving the accuracy of decisions.

Drawn from what Shane Parrish said

Subjectmental models
What this subject means

mental models Thinking tools borrowed across disciplines: inversion, second-order effects, circles of competence, probabilities, incentives.

Mental modelProbabilistic thinking

On the topicWhich mental models help you think better?under our view: Think in probabilities, and bet big only when the odds are yours

What Shane Parrish actually said

  1. Shane Parrish Founder of Farnam Street (fs.blog) and host of The Knowledge Project podcast
    Probabilistic thinking is essentially trying to estimate, using some tools of math and logic, the likelihood of any specific outcome coming to pass. It is one of the best tools we have to improve the accuracy of our decisions.

    Where this was said

    ↗The Value of Probabilistic Thinking: Spies, Crime, and Lightning Strikesfs.blog

    14 May 2018

    All 5 korrents from this piecethis one is 1st

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