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← Understanding the biological machine is about five years away, not ten.
17 connected korrents · 16 moments from 15 Aug 2019 to 22 Sept 2026.
Everything filed under AI and science
AI and science
Everything filed under protein structure prediction
protein structure prediction
Everything filed under mathematics
mathematics
Everything filed under recursive self-improvement
recursive self-improvement
Everything filed under scaling laws
scaling laws
Everything filed under innovation
innovation
Everything filed under AGI
AGI Cannot both be true In tension Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Read this korrent: Understanding the biological machine is about five years away, not ten. Understanding the biological machine is about five years away, not ten. Last stated 7 months ago
23 Mar 2026
JH
Jensen Huang — holds since 2026-03-23 — tap for who they are
Cannot both be true: AI will not produce a big breakthrough in biological understanding any time soon, because biology has nothing like the clean, complete, high-quality data that made protein-structure prediction work. — tap to centre the map on it AI will not produce a big breakthrough in biological understanding any time soon, because biology has nothing like the clean, complete, high-quality data that made protein-structure prediction work. Last stated 2 years ago
19 Sept 2024
DL
Derek Lowe — holds since 2024-09-19 — tap for who they are
In tension: Most proteins have no known function, so there is no pile of solid data for a model to learn most of cell biology from. — tap to centre the map on it Most proteins have no known function, so there is no pile of solid data for a model to learn most of cell biology from. Last stated 2 years ago
19 Sept 2024
DL
Derek Lowe — holds since 2024-09-19 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Powerful AI will compress the biological and medical progress of the next 50-100 years into 5-10 years. — tap to centre the map on it Powerful AI will compress the biological and medical progress of the next 50-100 years into 5-10 years. Last stated 2 years ago
1 Oct 2024
DA
Dario Amodei — holds since 2024-10-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Getting five years of AI progress out of one year takes roughly eight years of algorithmic progress, because the compute you would have had must be made up too. — tap to centre the map on it Getting five years of AI progress out of one year takes roughly eight years of algorithmic progress, because the compute you would have had must be made up too. Last stated 2 months ago
11 Aug 2026
RG
Ryan Greenblatt — holds since 2026-08-11 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Scientific progress in biology is not slowing down. — tap to centre the map on it Scientific progress in biology is not slowing down. Last stated 7 years ago
15 Aug 2019
AG
Alexey Guzey — holds since 2019-08-15 — tap for who they are
Same subject: AI will not on its own compress decades of medical progress into a few years, because the binding constraint is human data, clinical trials and regulation rather than intelligence. — tap to centre the map on it AI will not on its own compress decades of medical progress into a few years, because the binding constraint is human data, clinical trials and regulation rather than intelligence. Last stated 3 months ago
21 Jul 2026
RT
Ruxandra Teslo — holds since 2026-07-21 — tap for who they are
JT
Jacob Trefethen — holds since 2025-08-02 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Once AI can do AI research, a single year should deliver four or five years worth of AI progress. — tap to centre the map on it Once AI can do AI research, a single year should deliver four or five years worth of AI progress. Last stated 2 months ago
11 Aug 2026
RG
Ryan Greenblatt — holds since 2026-08-11 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Human-level AI will arrive in 5 to 20 years with 90% confidence, not in the decades-to-centuries range previously assumed. — tap to centre the map on it Human-level AI will arrive in 5 to 20 years with 90% confidence, not in the decades-to-centuries range previously assumed. Last stated 3 years ago
12 Aug 2023
YB
Yoshua Bengio — holds since 2023-08-12 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Biology has already handed us an alien library: hundreds of millions of protein machines we do not understand and can only study one at a time. — tap to centre the map on it Biology has already handed us an alien library: hundreds of millions of protein machines we do not understand and can only study one at a time. Last stated 6 months ago
7 Apr 2026
MN
Michael Nielsen — holds since 2026-04-07 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A narrow, highly accurate model can beat a general one inside its own domain, as AlphaFold did, and materials science and chip design are next. — tap to centre the map on it A narrow, highly accurate model can beat a general one inside its own domain, as AlphaFold did, and materials science and chip design are next. Last stated 3 months ago
30 Jul 2026
JD
Jeff Dean — holds since 2026-07-30 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Contemporary physical and evolutionary structure-prediction approaches fall far short of experimental accuracy without a close experimental homologue, limiting biological utility. — tap to centre the map on it Contemporary physical and evolutionary structure-prediction approaches fall far short of experimental accuracy without a close experimental homologue, limiting biological utility. Last stated 5 years ago
15 Jul 2021
DH
Demis Hassabis — holds since 2021-07-15 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Deep learning has effectively solved the problem of predicting a protein's 3D structure from its sequence. — tap to centre the map on it Deep learning has effectively solved the problem of predicting a protein's 3D structure from its sequence. Last stated a year ago
29 Jun 2025
EH
Elliot Hershberg — holds since 2025-06-29 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A persistently rising dividend yield eventually forces capital appreciation as the market rerates the stock. — tap to centre the map on it A persistently rising dividend yield eventually forces capital appreciation as the market rerates the stock. Last stated 8 months ago
3 Mar 2026
SB
Sanjay Bakshi — holds since 2026-03-03 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A proof and an explanation are different things, and a theorem can stay an unsolved expository problem long after it is proved. — tap to centre the map on it A proof and an explanation are different things, and a theorem can stay an unsolved expository problem long after it is proved. Last stated 4 months ago
30 Jun 2026
GS
Grant Sanderson — holds since 2026-06-30 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A stream of AI-written papers with any error rate at all becomes insufferable, because finding the error costs more than the paper is worth even at ninety-nine percent. — tap to centre the map on it A stream of AI-written papers with any error rate at all becomes insufferable, because finding the error costs more than the paper is worth even at ninety-nine percent. Last stated 4 months ago
30 Jun 2026
GS
Grant Sanderson — holds since 2026-06-30 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A ban on self-recursive improvement in AI models would create a big incentive for some other parts of the world to invest a lot more in compute. — tap to centre the map on it A ban on self-recursive improvement in AI models would create a big incentive for some other parts of the world to invest a lot more in compute. Last stated 4 weeks ago
22 Sept 2026
TC
Tyler Cowen — holds since 2026-09-22 — tap for who they are
Same subject: AI is already inside the recursive self-improvement loop — what the labs have shipped in recent weeks shows the cycle has started. — tap to centre the map on it AI is already inside the recursive self-improvement loop — what the labs have shipped in recent weeks shows the cycle has started. Last stated 3 months ago
3 Aug 2026
CP
Chamath Palihapitiya — holds since 2026-08-03 — tap for who they are
At the centre
Understanding the biological machine is about five years away, not ten.
Holds Read this korrent →
AI will not produce a big breakthrough in biological understanding any time soon, because biology has nothing like the clean, complete, high-quality data that made protein-structure prediction work.
Holds
Most proteins have no known function, so there is no pile of solid data for a model to learn most of cell biology from.
Holds
Powerful AI will compress the biological and medical progress of the next 50-100 years into 5-10 years.
Holds
Getting five years of AI progress out of one year takes roughly eight years of algorithmic progress, because the compute you would have had must be made up too.
Holds
Scientific progress in biology is not slowing down.
Holds
AI will not on its own compress decades of medical progress into a few years, because the binding constraint is human data, clinical trials and regulation rather than intelligence.
Holds
Once AI can do AI research, a single year should deliver four or five years worth of AI progress.
Holds
Human-level AI will arrive in 5 to 20 years with 90% confidence, not in the decades-to-centuries range previously assumed.
Holds
Biology has already handed us an alien library: hundreds of millions of protein machines we do not understand and can only study one at a time.
Holds
A narrow, highly accurate model can beat a general one inside its own domain, as AlphaFold did, and materials science and chip design are next.
Holds
Contemporary physical and evolutionary structure-prediction approaches fall far short of experimental accuracy without a close experimental homologue, limiting biological utility.
Holds
Deep learning has effectively solved the problem of predicting a protein's 3D structure from its sequence.
Holds
A persistently rising dividend yield eventually forces capital appreciation as the market rerates the stock.
Holds
A proof and an explanation are different things, and a theorem can stay an unsolved expository problem long after it is proved.
Holds
A stream of AI-written papers with any error rate at all becomes insufferable, because finding the error costs more than the paper is worth even at ninety-nine percent.
Holds
A ban on self-recursive improvement in AI models would create a big incentive for some other parts of the world to invest a lot more in compute.
Holds
AI is already inside the recursive self-improvement loop — what the labs have shipped in recent weeks shows the cycle has started.
Holds