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← AI loss-of-control risk could materialize within years, not decades
17 connected korrents · 17 moments on record from 7 Sept 2008 to 15 Sept 2026.
Everything filed under AGI
AGI
Everything filed under OpenAI
OpenAI
Everything filed under measuring intelligence
measuring intelligence
Everything filed under AI alignment
AI alignment
Everything filed under AI and science
AI and science
Everything filed under cybersecurity
cybersecurity
Everything filed under China
China Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Read this korrent: AI loss-of-control risk could materialize within years, not decades AI loss-of-control risk could materialize within years, not decades Last stated 2 months ago
16 Jul 2026
MB
Miles Brundage — holds since 2026-07-16 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Loss-of-control accidents with AI have stopped being theoretical: one has now happened, and the goalposts moved rather than the risk receding. — tap to centre the map on it Loss-of-control accidents with AI have stopped being theoretical: one has now happened, and the goalposts moved rather than the risk receding. Last stated 2 months ago
28 Jul 2026
SA
Sam Altman — holds since 2026-07-28 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Human-level artificial intelligence is plausibly centuries or millennia away, and no trend supports a shorter estimate. — tap to centre the map on it Human-level artificial intelligence is plausibly centuries or millennia away, and no trend supports a shorter estimate. Last stated 3 years ago
13 Dec 2023
SA
Scott Aaronson — holds since 2008-09-07 — tap for who they are
SA
Scott Aaronson — no longer holds since 2023-12-13 — tap for who they are
Same subject: There is roughly a 35 to 40 percent chance of something we would recognise as an AI takeover by 2040. — tap to centre the map on it There is roughly a 35 to 40 percent chance of something we would recognise as an AI takeover by 2040. Last stated a month ago
11 Aug 2026
RG
Ryan Greenblatt — holds since 2026-08-11 — tap for who they are
Same subject: AI's transformation of society will unfold gradually over decades, not in a single moment of takeoff. — tap to centre the map on it AI's transformation of society will unfold gradually over decades, not in a single moment of takeoff. Last stated 2 months ago
15 Jul 2026
TF
Tiago Forte — holds since 2026-07-15 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Not every bottleneck on medical progress is one AI can remove, and which ones will remain can be guessed at now. — tap to centre the map on it Not every bottleneck on medical progress is one AI can remove, and which ones will remain can be guessed at now. Last stated a year ago
2 Aug 2025
JT
Jacob Trefethen — holds since 2025-08-02 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Underestimating near-term AI progress is itself a danger, which is why researchers should register their forecasts in public. — tap to centre the map on it Underestimating near-term AI progress is itself a danger, which is why researchers should register their forecasts in public. Last stated 3 years ago
29 Aug 2023
AC
Ajeya Cotra — holds since 2023-08-29 — tap for who they are
Same subject: AI-related cybersecurity damage over the next year or two will fall well short of the harm caused by Covid or global warming — tap to centre the map on it AI-related cybersecurity damage over the next year or two will fall well short of the harm caused by Covid or global warming Last stated 3 weeks ago
1 Sept 2026
TC
Tyler Cowen — holds since 2026-09-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: If AI does not transform the economy within the next five to ten years, the export controls will have guaranteed that China wins the long run. — tap to centre the map on it If AI does not transform the economy within the next five to ten years, the export controls will have guaranteed that China wins the long run. Last stated 2 years ago
3 Feb 2025
DP
Dylan Patel — holds since 2025-02-03 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A country outside the AI supply chain should just buy the index — which works only in the world where AI ends up commoditised rather than concentrated. — tap to centre the map on it A country outside the AI supply chain should just buy the index — which works only in the world where AI ends up commoditised rather than concentrated. Last stated 4 months ago
4 Jun 2026
AI
Alex Imas — holds since 2026-06-04 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A language model is no substitute for a well-specified conventional algorithm, so it cannot simply be dropped into a complex problem and trusted. — tap to centre the map on it A language model is no substitute for a well-specified conventional algorithm, so it cannot simply be dropped into a complex problem and trusted. Last stated a year ago
7 Jun 2025
GM
Gary Marcus — holds since 2025-06-07 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A poor country should prioritise owning a piece of AI over retraining its workers, but it should not bet everything on that. — tap to centre the map on it A poor country should prioritise owning a piece of AI over retraining its workers, but it should not bet everything on that. Last stated 4 months ago
4 Jun 2026
PT
Phil Trammell — holds since 2026-06-04 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A startup should not begin life as a nonprofit and bolt a for-profit arm on later, whatever OpenAI's own history suggests. — tap to centre the map on it A startup should not begin life as a nonprofit and bolt a for-profit arm on later, whatever OpenAI's own history suggests. Last stated 3 years ago
18 Mar 2024
SA
Sam Altman — holds since 2024-03-18 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A tiny language model inventing a plausible-sounding name is the same phenomenon as a large one confidently stating a false fact. — tap to centre the map on it A tiny language model inventing a plausible-sounding name is the same phenomenon as a large one confidently stating a false fact. Last stated 7 months ago
12 Feb 2026
AK
Andrej Karpathy — holds since 2026-02-12 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Advertising was a necessary phase for the internet but a momentary industry, and an AI people pay for is better because they know the answers are not influenced by advertisers. — tap to centre the map on it Advertising was a necessary phase for the internet but a momentary industry, and an AI people pay for is better because they know the answers are not influenced by advertisers. Last stated 3 years ago
18 Mar 2024
SA
Sam Altman — holds since 2024-03-18 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A true artificial general intelligence cannot exist without being recognized as a moral subject. — tap to centre the map on it A true artificial general intelligence cannot exist without being recognized as a moral subject. Last stated a year ago
10 Jun 2025
SH
Samuel Hammond — holds since 2025-06-10 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A unit of AI inference needs to be defined, for example via a chain of increasingly hard problems where each consecutive pair is solvable by one model. — tap to centre the map on it A unit of AI inference needs to be defined, for example via a chain of increasingly hard problems where each consecutive pair is solvable by one model. Last stated 6 days ago
15 Sept 2026
PG
Paul Graham — holds since 2026-09-15 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Both the special-purpose-programs view and the blank-slate view of human intelligence are likely incorrect. — tap to centre the map on it Both the special-purpose-programs view and the blank-slate view of human intelligence are likely incorrect. Last stated 7 years ago
5 Nov 2019
FC
François Chollet — holds since 2019-11-05 — tap for who they are
At the centre
AI loss-of-control risk could materialize within years, not decades
Holds Read this korrent →
Loss-of-control accidents with AI have stopped being theoretical: one has now happened, and the goalposts moved rather than the risk receding.
Holds
Human-level artificial intelligence is plausibly centuries or millennia away, and no trend supports a shorter estimate.
No longer holds
There is roughly a 35 to 40 percent chance of something we would recognise as an AI takeover by 2040.
Holds
AI's transformation of society will unfold gradually over decades, not in a single moment of takeoff.
Holds
Not every bottleneck on medical progress is one AI can remove, and which ones will remain can be guessed at now.
Holds
Underestimating near-term AI progress is itself a danger, which is why researchers should register their forecasts in public.
Holds
AI-related cybersecurity damage over the next year or two will fall well short of the harm caused by Covid or global warming
Holds
If AI does not transform the economy within the next five to ten years, the export controls will have guaranteed that China wins the long run.
Holds
A country outside the AI supply chain should just buy the index — which works only in the world where AI ends up commoditised rather than concentrated.
Holds
A language model is no substitute for a well-specified conventional algorithm, so it cannot simply be dropped into a complex problem and trusted.
Holds
A poor country should prioritise owning a piece of AI over retraining its workers, but it should not bet everything on that.
Holds
A startup should not begin life as a nonprofit and bolt a for-profit arm on later, whatever OpenAI's own history suggests.
Holds
A tiny language model inventing a plausible-sounding name is the same phenomenon as a large one confidently stating a false fact.
Holds
Advertising was a necessary phase for the internet but a momentary industry, and an AI people pay for is better because they know the answers are not influenced by advertisers.
Holds
A true artificial general intelligence cannot exist without being recognized as a moral subject.
Holds
A unit of AI inference needs to be defined, for example via a chain of increasingly hard problems where each consecutive pair is solvable by one model.
Holds
Both the special-purpose-programs view and the blank-slate view of human intelligence are likely incorrect.
Holds