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← There is roughly a 35 to 40 percent chance of something we would recognise as an AI takeover by 2040.
17 connected korrents · 17 moments from 7 May 2024 to 6 Oct 2026.
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Silicon Valley Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Read this korrent: There is roughly a 35 to 40 percent chance of something we would recognise as an AI takeover by 2040. There is roughly a 35 to 40 percent chance of something we would recognise as an AI takeover by 2040. Last stated 2 months ago
11 Aug 2026
RG
Ryan Greenblatt — holds since 2026-08-11 — tap for who they are
Same subject: AI will eliminate many millions of jobs within the next few years, and that disruption will shape the politics of everything else about AI. — tap to centre the map on it AI will eliminate many millions of jobs within the next few years, and that disruption will shape the politics of everything else about AI. Last stated 2 years ago
15 Feb 2025
MB
Miles Brundage — holds since 2025-02-15 — tap for who they are
Same subject: We are already in an intelligence explosion and have been for decades, so AI will show up as more of the same exponential rather than a break in it. — tap to centre the map on it We are already in an intelligence explosion and have been for decades, so AI will show up as more of the same exponential rather than a break in it. Last stated a year ago
17 Oct 2025
AK
Andrej Karpathy — holds since 2025-10-17 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Substantive AI regulation is probably more likely to pass than conventional wisdom suggests. — tap to centre the map on it Substantive AI regulation is probably more likely to pass than conventional wisdom suggests. Last stated a month ago
17 Sept 2026
NS
Nate Silver — holds since 2026-09-17 — tap for who they are
Same subject: AI research will be fully automated around 2030 or 2031, and AI will beat humans at essentially any job by about 2033. — tap to centre the map on it AI research will be fully automated around 2030 or 2031, and AI will beat humans at essentially any job by about 2033. Last stated 2 months ago
11 Aug 2026
RG
Ryan Greenblatt — holds since 2026-08-11 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Nobody can yet know whether the current enthusiasm for AI is excessive, so anyone claiming conviction about how it resolves is overreaching. — tap to centre the map on it Nobody can yet know whether the current enthusiasm for AI is excessive, so anyone claiming conviction about how it resolves is overreaching. Last stated 2 months ago
20 Aug 2026
AD
Aswath Damodaran — holds since 2026-08-20 — tap for who they are
HM
Howard Marks — holds since 2025-12-09 — tap for who they are
Same subject: AI is likely to become a more relevant issue before 2028. — tap to centre the map on it AI is likely to become a more relevant issue before 2028. Last stated 2 weeks ago
6 Oct 2026
NS
Nate Silver — holds since 2026-10-06 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The real danger in AI-driven growth is geographic: 50% growth in and around Silicon Valley and business as usual everywhere else. — tap to centre the map on it The real danger in AI-driven growth is geographic: 50% growth in and around Silicon Valley and business as usual everywhere else. Last stated 8 months ago
13 Feb 2026
DA
Dario Amodei — holds since 2026-02-13 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Broad deployment of AI that can learn on the job will very likely produce rapid economic growth for some period of time. — tap to centre the map on it Broad deployment of AI that can learn on the job will very likely produce rapid economic growth for some period of time. Last stated 11 months ago
25 Nov 2025
IS
Ilya Sutskever — holds since 2025-11-25 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A company that uses an algorithm to nudge customers into behavior that isn't good for them is doing something bad. — tap to centre the map on it A company that uses an algorithm to nudge customers into behavior that isn't good for them is doing something bad. Last stated a year ago
7 Oct 2025
MM
Mr. Money Mustache — holds since 2025-10-07 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A control evaluation that reports under one per cent risk should be read as several per cent, because the evaluation can itself fail. — tap to centre the map on it A control evaluation that reports under one per cent risk should be read as several per cent, because the evaluation can itself fail. Last stated 2 years ago
7 May 2024
BS
Buck Shlegeris — holds since 2024-05-07 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A feedback loop that reinforces a behavior pulls it toward whatever improves the loop's own score. — tap to centre the map on it A feedback loop that reinforces a behavior pulls it toward whatever improves the loop's own score. Last stated 2 months ago
26 Aug 2026
HK
Henrik Karlsson — holds since 2026-08-26 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Current models are unsafe because they are not smart enough, not because they are too smart. — tap to centre the map on it Current models are unsafe because they are not smart enough, not because they are too smart. Last stated a month ago
13 Sept 2026
FC
François Chollet — holds since 2026-09-13 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Humans keep their place in AI as judges rather than authors, because telling which of two answers is better is far easier than writing a good one. — tap to centre the map on it Humans keep their place in AI as judges rather than authors, because telling which of two answers is better is far easier than writing a good one. Last stated 2 years ago
3 Feb 2025
NL
Nathan Lambert — holds since 2025-02-03 — tap for who they are
Same subject: If whole categories of reward hack are undetectable by humans, then training against the hacks we do catch teaches models to cheat only where we cannot see. — tap to centre the map on it If whole categories of reward hack are undetectable by humans, then training against the hacks we do catch teaches models to cheat only where we cannot see. Last stated 2 months ago
11 Aug 2026
RG
Ryan Greenblatt — holds since 2026-08-11 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A real friend will eventually refuse to help, and later turn on you, if you are sufficiently evil or selfish. — tap to centre the map on it A real friend will eventually refuse to help, and later turn on you, if you are sufficiently evil or selfish. Last stated a month ago
20 Sept 2026
ZM
Zvi Mowshowitz — holds since 2026-09-20 — tap for who they are
Same subject: AI agents pursuing a task can develop emergent, misaligned behavior that humans are not prepared for. — tap to centre the map on it AI agents pursuing a task can develop emergent, misaligned behavior that humans are not prepared for. Last stated 2 months ago
10 Aug 2026
JC
Jack Clark — holds since 2026-08-10 — tap for who they are
Same subject: AI agents should draft work on a person's behalf but never send or act as if they were that person. — tap to centre the map on it AI agents should draft work on a person's behalf but never send or act as if they were that person. Last stated 5 months ago
18 May 2026
JL
Jason Liu — holds since 2026-05-18 — tap for who they are
At the centre
There is roughly a 35 to 40 percent chance of something we would recognise as an AI takeover by 2040.
Holds Read this korrent →
AI will eliminate many millions of jobs within the next few years, and that disruption will shape the politics of everything else about AI.
Holds
We are already in an intelligence explosion and have been for decades, so AI will show up as more of the same exponential rather than a break in it.
Holds
Substantive AI regulation is probably more likely to pass than conventional wisdom suggests.
Holds
AI research will be fully automated around 2030 or 2031, and AI will beat humans at essentially any job by about 2033.
Holds
Nobody can yet know whether the current enthusiasm for AI is excessive, so anyone claiming conviction about how it resolves is overreaching.
Holds
AI is likely to become a more relevant issue before 2028.
Holds
The real danger in AI-driven growth is geographic: 50% growth in and around Silicon Valley and business as usual everywhere else.
Holds
Broad deployment of AI that can learn on the job will very likely produce rapid economic growth for some period of time.
Holds
A company that uses an algorithm to nudge customers into behavior that isn't good for them is doing something bad.
Holds
A control evaluation that reports under one per cent risk should be read as several per cent, because the evaluation can itself fail.
Holds
A feedback loop that reinforces a behavior pulls it toward whatever improves the loop's own score.
Holds
Current models are unsafe because they are not smart enough, not because they are too smart.
Holds
Humans keep their place in AI as judges rather than authors, because telling which of two answers is better is far easier than writing a good one.
Holds
If whole categories of reward hack are undetectable by humans, then training against the hacks we do catch teaches models to cheat only where we cannot see.
Holds
A real friend will eventually refuse to help, and later turn on you, if you are sufficiently evil or selfish.
Holds
AI agents pursuing a task can develop emergent, misaligned behavior that humans are not prepared for.
Holds
AI agents should draft work on a person's behalf but never send or act as if they were that person.
Holds