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← There is roughly a 35 to 40 percent chance of something we would recognise as an AI takeover by 2040.

16 connected korrents · 15 moments on record from 7 Sept 2008 to 20 Aug 2026.

Everything filed under politics politics Everything filed under Silicon Valley Silicon Valley Everything filed under AI alignment AI alignment Everything filed under libertarianism libertarianism Same subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subject Read this korrent: There is roughly a 35 to 40 percent chance of something we would recognise as an AI takeover by 2040. There is roughly a 35 to 40 percent chanceof something we would recognise as an AItakeover by 2040. Last stated 4 weeks ago 11 Aug 2026 RG Ryan Greenblatt — holds since 2026-08-11 — tap for who they are Same subject: AI will eliminate many millions of jobs within the next few years, and that disruption will shape the politics of everything else about AI. — tap to centre the map on it AI will eliminate many millions ofjobs within the next few years, andthat disruption will shape thepolitics of everything else aboutAI. Last stated 2 years ago 15 Feb 2025 MB Miles Brundage — holds since 2025-02-15 — tap for who they are Same subject: We are already in an intelligence explosion and have been for decades, so AI will show up as more of the same exponential rather than a break in it. — tap to centre the map on it We are already in an intelligenceexplosion and have been for decades,so AI will show up as more of thesame exponential rather than a breakin it. Last stated 11 months ago 17 Oct 2025 AK Andrej Karpathy — holds since 2025-10-17 — tap for who they are Same subject: AI research will be fully automated around 2030 or 2031, and AI will beat humans at essentially any job by about 2033. — tap to centre the map on it AI research will be fully automatedaround 2030 or 2031, and AI willbeat humans at essentially any jobby about 2033. Last stated 4 weeks ago 11 Aug 2026 RG Ryan Greenblatt — holds since 2026-08-11 — tap for who they are Same subject: Nobody can yet know whether the current enthusiasm for AI is excessive, so anyone claiming conviction about how it resolves is overreaching. — tap to centre the map on it Nobody can yet know whether thecurrent enthusiasm for AI isexcessive, so anyone claimingconviction about how it resolves isoverreaching. Last stated 3 weeks ago 20 Aug 2026 AD Aswath Damodaran — holds since 2026-08-20 — tap for who they are HM Howard Marks — holds since 2025-12-09 — tap for who they are Same subject: The real danger in AI-driven growth is geographic: 50% growth in and around Silicon Valley and business as usual everywhere else. — tap to centre the map on it The real danger in AI-driven growthis geographic: 50% growth in andaround Silicon Valley and businessas usual everywhere else. Last stated 7 months ago 13 Feb 2026 DA Dario Amodei — holds since 2026-02-13 — tap for who they are Same subject: Broad deployment of AI that can learn on the job will very likely produce rapid economic growth for some period of time. — tap to centre the map on it Broad deployment of AI that canlearn on the job will very likelyproduce rapid economic growth forsome period of time. Last stated 9 months ago 25 Nov 2025 IS Ilya Sutskever — holds since 2025-11-25 — tap for who they are Same subject: We will get a warning shot before AI crosses the point of no return — tap to centre the map on it We will get a warning shot before AIcrosses the point of no return Last stated 3 months ago 11 Jun 2026 SA Scott Alexander — holds since 2026-06-11 — tap for who they are Same subject: Human-level artificial intelligence is plausibly centuries or millennia away, and no trend supports a shorter estimate. — tap to centre the map on it Human-level artificial intelligenceis plausibly centuries or millenniaaway, and no trend supports ashorter estimate. Last stated 3 years ago 13 Dec 2023 SA Scott Aaronson — holds since 2008-09-07 — tap for who they are SA Scott Aaronson — no longer holds since 2023-12-13 — tap for who they are Same subject: A country without cultural unity struggles to provide public goods, because its politics turns into an ethnic spoils system. — tap to centre the map on it A country without cultural unitystruggles to provide public goods,because its politics turns into anethnic spoils system. Last stated 5 months ago 9 Apr 2026 NS Noah Smith — holds since 2026-04-09 — tap for who they are Same subject: A whole class of product managers built a career on politics rather than on technical or customer skill, and that skill is now worth nothing. — tap to centre the map on it A whole class of product managersbuilt a career on politics ratherthan on technical or customer skill,and that skill is now worth nothing. Last stated a month ago 2 Aug 2026 TV Tom Verrilli — holds since 2026-08-02 — tap for who they are Same subject: AI that is merely excellent at research and hardware can transform the world completely without ever being good at politics. — tap to centre the map on it AI that is merely excellent atresearch and hardware can transformthe world completely without everbeing good at politics. Last stated 4 weeks ago 11 Aug 2026 RG Ryan Greenblatt — holds since 2026-08-11 — tap for who they are Same subject: "Move fast and break things" is the wrong mantra when you are dealing with atoms; the job is to move fast and ship safely. — tap to centre the map on it "Move fast and break things" is thewrong mantra when you are dealingwith atoms; the job is to move fastand ship safely. Last stated a month ago 3 Aug 2026 DD Dmitri Dolgov — holds since 2026-08-03 — tap for who they are Same subject: DeepSeek's paper was the single most important thing Silicon Valley researchers read in years. — tap to centre the map on it DeepSeek's paper was the single mostimportant thing Silicon Valleyresearchers read in years. Last stated 8 months ago 8 Jan 2026 JH Jensen Huang — holds since 2026-01-08 — tap for who they are Same subject: Moonshots succeed more often than Silicon Valley's use of the word admits -- we actually got to the moon. — tap to centre the map on it Moonshots succeed more often thanSilicon Valley's use of the wordadmits -- we actually got to themoon. Last stated 3 weeks ago 20 Aug 2026 MH Max Hodak — holds since 2026-08-20 — tap for who they are Same subject: The great task for libertarians is to escape politics in all its forms, rather than to win within it. — tap to centre the map on it The great task for libertarians isto escape politics in all its forms,rather than to win within it. Last stated 17 years ago 13 Apr 2009 PT Peter Thiel — holds since 2009-04-13 — tap for who they are Same subject: With no truly free places left in the world, freedom now depends on new technology creating new space, not on political change. — tap to centre the map on it With no truly free places left inthe world, freedom now depends onnew technology creating new space,not on political change. Last stated 17 years ago 13 Apr 2009 PT Peter Thiel — holds since 2009-04-13 — tap for who they are
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At the centre There is roughly a 35 to 40 percent chance of something we would recognise as an AI takeover by 2040. Last stated 11 Aug 2026 · 4 weeks ago Holds Ryan Greenblatt Read this korrent →