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← Long-run GDP charts hide what matters: technologies are contingent and…
17 connected korrents · 14 moments on record from 1 Jan 2020 to 4 Jun 2026.
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inflation Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Read this korrent: Long-run GDP charts hide what matters: technologies are contingent and path dependent, so the same number can describe economies that work in entirely different ways. Long-run GDP charts hide what matters: technologies are contingent and path dependent, so the same number can describe economies that work in entirely different ways. Last stated 4 years ago
26 Aug 2022
BD
Bret Devereaux — holds since 2022-08-26 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Only a handful of countries can do high technology at all, because industrial capability is path-dependent and the initial conditions are very hard to get right. — tap to centre the map on it Only a handful of countries can do high technology at all, because industrial capability is path-dependent and the initial conditions are very hard to get right. Last stated 7 years ago
1 Jan 2020
DW
Dan Wang — holds since 2020-01-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: We are already in an intelligence explosion and have been for decades, so AI will show up as more of the same exponential rather than a break in it. — tap to centre the map on it We are already in an intelligence explosion and have been for decades, so AI will show up as more of the same exponential rather than a break in it. Last stated 11 months ago
17 Oct 2025
AK
Andrej Karpathy — holds since 2025-10-17 — tap for who they are
Same subject: What decides a country's fortunes is not owning the leading sector but using the leading technology to create its own comparative advantage. — tap to centre the map on it What decides a country's fortunes is not owning the leading sector but using the leading technology to create its own comparative advantage. Last stated 10 months ago
12 Nov 2025
SN
Satya Nadella — holds since 2025-11-12 — tap for who they are
Same subject: History has no predetermined path: its course turns on unpredictable contingencies rather than on deep currents that would have produced the same outcome anyway. — tap to centre the map on it History has no predetermined path: its course turns on unpredictable contingencies rather than on deep currents that would have produced the same outcome anyway. Last stated 4 years ago
26 Aug 2022
BD
Bret Devereaux — holds since 2022-08-26 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Most macroeconomic models cannot describe the AI transition, because they assume a single output that converts one-for-one into capital or consumption. — tap to centre the map on it Most macroeconomic models cannot describe the AI transition, because they assume a single output that converts one-for-one into capital or consumption. Last stated 3 months ago
4 Jun 2026
PT
Phil Trammell — holds since 2026-06-04 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The world economy is flat for capital, goods and ideas, and has a legal cliff at the border for people. — tap to centre the map on it The world economy is flat for capital, goods and ideas, and has a legal cliff at the border for people. Last stated 4 years ago
2 Mar 2023
LP
Lant Pritchett — holds since 2023-03-02 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Technology is a lever on the world -- the way to make more with less -- and productivity growth is the main driver of wages, industries and jobs. — tap to centre the map on it Technology is a lever on the world -- the way to make more with less -- and productivity growth is the main driver of wages, industries and jobs. Last stated 3 years ago
16 Oct 2023
MA
Marc Andreessen — holds since 2023-10-16 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The scaling curve really is S-shaped, but there are at least two cycles left in it, which means models sixteen times smarter and all knowledge work subsumed. — tap to centre the map on it The scaling curve really is S-shaped, but there are at least two cycles left in it, which means models sixteen times smarter and all knowledge work subsumed. Last stated 6 months ago
11 Mar 2026
SY
Steve Yegge — holds since 2026-03-11 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Among the leading candidates for greatest economist of all time, Adam Smith was analytically the weakest, save perhaps Malthus. — tap to centre the map on it Among the leading candidates for greatest economist of all time, Adam Smith was analytically the weakest, save perhaps Malthus. Last stated 3 years ago
1 Oct 2023
TC
Tyler Cowen — holds since 2023-10-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: An inability to see the viewpoints of people unlike oneself is a genuine weakness in a social scientist, not merely a separate moral failing. — tap to centre the map on it An inability to see the viewpoints of people unlike oneself is a genuine weakness in a social scientist, not merely a separate moral failing. Last stated 3 years ago
1 Oct 2023
TC
Tyler Cowen — holds since 2023-10-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: College is not a good career investment for most of the population. — tap to centre the map on it College is not a good career investment for most of the population. Last stated 2 years ago
19 Feb 2025
BC
Bryan Caplan — holds since 2025-02-19 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A company's staff-engineer bar should be set against the best companies in the industry rather than against its own history, which is what makes title inflation a real cost. — tap to centre the map on it A company's staff-engineer bar should be set against the best companies in the industry rather than against its own history, which is what makes title inflation a real cost. Last stated 5 months ago
1 Apr 2026
TP
Thuan Pham — holds since 2026-04-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Cash welfare benefits contributed at least somewhat to the inflation of 2021-2022. — tap to centre the map on it Cash welfare benefits contributed at least somewhat to the inflation of 2021-2022. Last stated 4 years ago
25 Jul 2022
NS
Noah Smith — holds since 2022-07-25 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Central bank purchases of government bonds are not bailouts and do not automatically cause inflation, since they only change the composition of the consolidated government's liabilities, not their total. — tap to centre the map on it Central bank purchases of government bonds are not bailouts and do not automatically cause inflation, since they only change the composition of the consolidated government's liabilities, not their total. Last stated 4 years ago
1 Jun 2022
OB
Olivier Blanchard — holds since 2022-06-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A bank should be managed against the fat tails it can imagine, not against the stress test its regulator hands it. — tap to centre the map on it A bank should be managed against the fat tails it can imagine, not against the stress test its regulator hands it. Last stated a year ago
16 Jul 2025
JD
Jamie Dimon — holds since 2025-07-16 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A central bank can eliminate a self-fulfilling ('sunspot') debt crisis simply by credibly committing to buy as many bonds as needed at the low interest rate. — tap to centre the map on it A central bank can eliminate a self-fulfilling ('sunspot') debt crisis simply by credibly committing to buy as many bonds as needed at the low interest rate. Last stated 4 years ago
1 Jun 2022
OB
Olivier Blanchard — holds since 2022-06-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A fiscal expansion when the economy is already at potential output prompts monetary tightening that dampens or eliminates its effect on output. — tap to centre the map on it A fiscal expansion when the economy is already at potential output prompts monetary tightening that dampens or eliminates its effect on output. Last stated 4 years ago
1 Jun 2022
OB
Olivier Blanchard — holds since 2022-06-01 — tap for who they are
At the centre
Long-run GDP charts hide what matters: technologies are contingent and path dependent, so the same number can describe economies that work in entirely different ways.
Holds BD Bret DevereauxRead this korrent →
Only a handful of countries can do high technology at all, because industrial capability is path-dependent and the initial conditions are very hard to get right.
Holds DW Dan Wang
We are already in an intelligence explosion and have been for decades, so AI will show up as more of the same exponential rather than a break in it.
Holds
What decides a country's fortunes is not owning the leading sector but using the leading technology to create its own comparative advantage.
Holds SN Satya Nadella
History has no predetermined path: its course turns on unpredictable contingencies rather than on deep currents that would have produced the same outcome anyway.
Holds BD Bret Devereaux
Most macroeconomic models cannot describe the AI transition, because they assume a single output that converts one-for-one into capital or consumption.
Holds PT Phil Trammell
The world economy is flat for capital, goods and ideas, and has a legal cliff at the border for people.
Holds LP Lant Pritchett
Technology is a lever on the world -- the way to make more with less -- and productivity growth is the main driver of wages, industries and jobs.
Holds
The scaling curve really is S-shaped, but there are at least two cycles left in it, which means models sixteen times smarter and all knowledge work subsumed.
Holds SY Steve Yegge
Among the leading candidates for greatest economist of all time, Adam Smith was analytically the weakest, save perhaps Malthus.
Holds TC Tyler Cowen
An inability to see the viewpoints of people unlike oneself is a genuine weakness in a social scientist, not merely a separate moral failing.
Holds TC Tyler Cowen
College is not a good career investment for most of the population.
Holds BC Bryan Caplan
A company's staff-engineer bar should be set against the best companies in the industry rather than against its own history, which is what makes title inflation a real cost.
Holds TP Thuan Pham
Cash welfare benefits contributed at least somewhat to the inflation of 2021-2022.
Holds
Central bank purchases of government bonds are not bailouts and do not automatically cause inflation, since they only change the composition of the consolidated government's liabilities, not their total.
Holds
A bank should be managed against the fat tails it can imagine, not against the stress test its regulator hands it.
Holds JD Jamie Dimon
A central bank can eliminate a self-fulfilling ('sunspot') debt crisis simply by credibly committing to buy as many bonds as needed at the low interest rate.
Holds
A fiscal expansion when the economy is already at potential output prompts monetary tightening that dampens or eliminates its effect on output.
Holds