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← Long-run GDP charts hide what matters: technologies are contingent and…
17 connected korrents · 16 moments from 8 Jan 2013 to 17 Sept 2026.
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AGI Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Read this korrent: Long-run GDP charts hide what matters: technologies are contingent and path dependent, so the same number can describe economies that work in entirely different ways. Long-run GDP charts hide what matters: technologies are contingent and path dependent, so the same number can describe economies that work in entirely different ways. Last stated 4 years ago
26 Aug 2022
BD
Bret Devereaux — holds since 2022-08-26 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Only a handful of countries can do high technology at all, because industrial capability is path-dependent and the initial conditions are very hard to get right. — tap to centre the map on it Only a handful of countries can do high technology at all, because industrial capability is path-dependent and the initial conditions are very hard to get right. Last stated 7 years ago
1 Jan 2020
DW
Dan Wang — holds since 2020-01-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: When assessing an economy's trajectory, current performance signals are more useful than forecasts of potential GDP growth. — tap to centre the map on it When assessing an economy's trajectory, current performance signals are more useful than forecasts of potential GDP growth. Last stated a year ago
13 Aug 2025
AB
Andrew Batson — holds since 2025-08-13 — tap for who they are
Same subject: We are already in an intelligence explosion and have been for decades, so AI will show up as more of the same exponential rather than a break in it. — tap to centre the map on it We are already in an intelligence explosion and have been for decades, so AI will show up as more of the same exponential rather than a break in it. Last stated a year ago
17 Oct 2025
AK
Andrej Karpathy — holds since 2025-10-17 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Technological progress looks smooth and exponential from a distance but is actually made of individual S-curves up close. — tap to centre the map on it Technological progress looks smooth and exponential from a distance but is actually made of individual S-curves up close. Last stated 3 years ago
9 Feb 2024
TU
Tim Urban — holds since 2024-02-09 — tap for who they are
Same subject: What decides a country's fortunes is not owning the leading sector but using the leading technology to create its own comparative advantage. — tap to centre the map on it What decides a country's fortunes is not owning the leading sector but using the leading technology to create its own comparative advantage. Last stated 11 months ago
12 Nov 2025
SN
Satya Nadella — holds since 2025-11-12 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Technological development trajectories often display increasing returns, which entrench early paths and crowd out alternatives. — tap to centre the map on it Technological development trajectories often display increasing returns, which entrench early paths and crowd out alternatives. Last stated 2 months ago
27 Aug 2026
HF
Henry Farrell — holds since 2026-08-27 — tap for who they are
Same subject: History has no predetermined path: its course turns on unpredictable contingencies rather than on deep currents that would have produced the same outcome anyway. — tap to centre the map on it History has no predetermined path: its course turns on unpredictable contingencies rather than on deep currents that would have produced the same outcome anyway. Last stated 4 years ago
26 Aug 2022
BD
Bret Devereaux — holds since 2022-08-26 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Most macroeconomic models cannot describe the AI transition, because they assume a single output that converts one-for-one into capital or consumption. — tap to centre the map on it Most macroeconomic models cannot describe the AI transition, because they assume a single output that converts one-for-one into capital or consumption. Last stated 5 months ago
4 Jun 2026
PT
Phil Trammell — holds since 2026-06-04 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A contest between five paid firms is not the way to get good creative work. — tap to centre the map on it A contest between five paid firms is not the way to get good creative work. Last stated 2 months ago
14 Aug 2026
SK
Susan Kare — holds since 2026-08-14 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A feeling of responsibility is probably the greatest inhibitor of creativity; great ideas came from people not paid to have them — tap to centre the map on it A feeling of responsibility is probably the greatest inhibitor of creativity; great ideas came from people not paid to have them
IA
Isaac Asimov — holds since c. 1959 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A free-wheeling, anarchic neural organization may be the secret of human creativity, at the price of susceptibility to mental illness — tap to centre the map on it A free-wheeling, anarchic neural organization may be the secret of human creativity, at the price of susceptibility to mental illness Last stated 14 years ago
8 Jan 2013
DD
Daniel Dennett — holds since 2013-01-08 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A badly written AI outbound email is evidence of a bad vendor, not of a limit of AI. — tap to centre the map on it A badly written AI outbound email is evidence of a bad vendor, not of a limit of AI. Last stated 10 months ago
1 Jan 2026
JL
Jason Lemkin — holds since 2026-01-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A bigger context window does not give you a smarter model; the intelligence of the model is what decides how much of that window it can actually attend to. — tap to centre the map on it A bigger context window does not give you a smarter model; the intelligence of the model is what decides how much of that window it can actually attend to. Last stated 3 months ago
15 Jul 2026
DH
Dex Horthy — holds since 2026-07-15 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A body of publications is easy for AI models to consume via pretraining corpora but cumbersome for most humans due to CAPTCHAs, accounts, and paywalls. — tap to centre the map on it A body of publications is easy for AI models to consume via pretraining corpora but cumbersome for most humans due to CAPTCHAs, accounts, and paywalls. Last stated a month ago
17 Sept 2026
PC
Patrick Collison — holds since 2026-09-17 — tap for who they are
Same subject: "If you're not growing, you're dying" is truer of the person than of the company. — tap to centre the map on it "If you're not growing, you're dying" is truer of the person than of the company. Last stated 9 months ago
25 Jan 2026
JC
Jason Cohen — holds since 2026-01-25 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A common-sense utopia is much closer to the present day than it is to the best futures actually available to us. — tap to centre the map on it A common-sense utopia is much closer to the present day than it is to the best futures actually available to us. Last stated a year ago
3 Aug 2025
WM
William MacAskill — holds since 2025-08-03 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A company can run at a fast pace sustainably without constant overwork or undue stress — tap to centre the map on it A company can run at a fast pace sustainably without constant overwork or undue stress Last stated 4 years ago
4 Nov 2022
DH
David Heinemeier Hansson — holds since 2022-11-04 — tap for who they are
At the centre
Long-run GDP charts hide what matters: technologies are contingent and path dependent, so the same number can describe economies that work in entirely different ways.
Holds Read this korrent →
Only a handful of countries can do high technology at all, because industrial capability is path-dependent and the initial conditions are very hard to get right.
Holds
When assessing an economy's trajectory, current performance signals are more useful than forecasts of potential GDP growth.
Holds
We are already in an intelligence explosion and have been for decades, so AI will show up as more of the same exponential rather than a break in it.
Holds
Technological progress looks smooth and exponential from a distance but is actually made of individual S-curves up close.
Holds
What decides a country's fortunes is not owning the leading sector but using the leading technology to create its own comparative advantage.
Holds
Technological development trajectories often display increasing returns, which entrench early paths and crowd out alternatives.
Holds
History has no predetermined path: its course turns on unpredictable contingencies rather than on deep currents that would have produced the same outcome anyway.
Holds
Most macroeconomic models cannot describe the AI transition, because they assume a single output that converts one-for-one into capital or consumption.
Holds
A contest between five paid firms is not the way to get good creative work.
Holds
A feeling of responsibility is probably the greatest inhibitor of creativity; great ideas came from people not paid to have them
Last stated c. 1959
Holds
A free-wheeling, anarchic neural organization may be the secret of human creativity, at the price of susceptibility to mental illness
Holds
A badly written AI outbound email is evidence of a bad vendor, not of a limit of AI.
Holds
A bigger context window does not give you a smarter model; the intelligence of the model is what decides how much of that window it can actually attend to.
Holds
A body of publications is easy for AI models to consume via pretraining corpora but cumbersome for most humans due to CAPTCHAs, accounts, and paywalls.
Holds
"If you're not growing, you're dying" is truer of the person than of the company.
Holds
A common-sense utopia is much closer to the present day than it is to the best futures actually available to us.
Holds
A company can run at a fast pace sustainably without constant overwork or undue stress
Holds