Long-run GDP charts hide what matters: technologies are contingent and path dependent, so the same number can describe economies that work in entirely different ways.

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• Only a handful of countries can do high technology at all, because industrial capability is path-dependent and the initial conditions are very hard to get right. DWDan Wang1 Jan 2020
• When assessing an economy's trajectory, current performance signals are more useful than forecasts of potential GDP growth. ABAndrew Batson13 Aug 2025
• We are already in an intelligence explosion and have been for decades, so AI will show up as more of the same exponential rather than a break in it. AKAndrej Karpathy17 Oct 2025
• Technological progress looks smooth and exponential from a distance but is actually made of individual S-curves up close. TUTim Urban9 Feb 2024
• What decides a country's fortunes is not owning the leading sector but using the leading technology to create its own comparative advantage. SNSatya Nadella12 Nov 2025

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