Technological progress looks smooth and exponential from a distance but is actually made of individual S-curves up close.

Added to korrents 20 Sept 2026 · How quotes work · Something wrong? Tell us

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• The thing worth finding is the exponential with the steepest curve that will run the longest — decades ago that was Moore’s law, and today it is AI progress. AWAlexandr Wang29 Jul 2026
• The scaling curve really is S-shaped, but there are at least two cycles left in it, which means models sixteen times smarter and all knowledge work subsumed. SYSteve Yegge11 Mar 2026
• Long-run GDP charts hide what matters: technologies are contingent and path dependent, so the same number can describe economies that work in entirely different ways. BDBret Devereaux26 Aug 2022
• An exponential feels like it cannot possibly keep going, which is exactly why people keep expecting AI progress to stop. MZMark Zuckerberg10 Jun 2026
• Expecting technology to keep accelerating is a bias of our particular moment; for most of human history the tools did not change at all. AFAdam Frank22 Dec 2024

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