The scaling curve really is S-shaped, but there are at least two cycles left in it, which means models sixteen times smarter and all knowledge work subsumed.

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• We are already in an intelligence explosion and have been for decades, so AI will show up as more of the same exponential rather than a break in it. AKAndrej Karpathy17 Oct 2025similar wording
• Scaling laws are still working, but the models people actually use run a few months behind the maximum capability Google can deliver, because the biggest model is too slow and expensive to serve. SPSundar Pichai5 Jun 2025similar wording
• Large language models could still plateau, and that possibility should be held open even though no evidence of it has appeared. DHDavid Heinemeier Hansson26 Aug 2026similar wording
• Intelligence is going to scale by exactly one thing, and that thing is compute. JHJensen Huang23 Mar 2026similar wording
• There will be no overnight intelligence explosion, because a model's best work takes so much test-time compute that time itself is the bottleneck. NBNoam Brown26 Jun 2026similar wording

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