Tap a claim on the ring to put it at the centre.
← Technological progress looks smooth and exponential from a distance…
17 connected korrents · 17 moments from 26 Aug 2022 to 27 Aug 2026.
Everything filed under innovation
innovation
Everything filed under ambition
ambition
Everything filed under creativity
creativity
Everything filed under LLMs
LLMs
Everything filed under scaling laws
scaling laws
Everything filed under AGI
AGI Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Read this korrent: Technological progress looks smooth and exponential from a distance but is actually made of individual S-curves up close. Technological progress looks smooth and exponential from a distance but is actually made of individual S-curves up close. Last stated 3 years ago
9 Feb 2024
TU
Tim Urban — holds since 2024-02-09 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The thing worth finding is the exponential with the steepest curve that will run the longest — decades ago that was Moore’s law, and today it is AI progress. — tap to centre the map on it The thing worth finding is the exponential with the steepest curve that will run the longest — decades ago that was Moore’s law, and today it is AI progress. Last stated 3 months ago
29 Jul 2026
AW
Alexandr Wang — holds since 2026-07-29 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The scaling curve really is S-shaped, but there are at least two cycles left in it, which means models sixteen times smarter and all knowledge work subsumed. — tap to centre the map on it The scaling curve really is S-shaped, but there are at least two cycles left in it, which means models sixteen times smarter and all knowledge work subsumed. Last stated 8 months ago
11 Mar 2026
SY
Steve Yegge — holds since 2026-03-11 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Long-run GDP charts hide what matters: technologies are contingent and path dependent, so the same number can describe economies that work in entirely different ways. — tap to centre the map on it Long-run GDP charts hide what matters: technologies are contingent and path dependent, so the same number can describe economies that work in entirely different ways. Last stated 4 years ago
26 Aug 2022
BD
Bret Devereaux — holds since 2022-08-26 — tap for who they are
Same subject: An exponential feels like it cannot possibly keep going, which is exactly why people keep expecting AI progress to stop. — tap to centre the map on it An exponential feels like it cannot possibly keep going, which is exactly why people keep expecting AI progress to stop. Last stated 5 months ago
10 Jun 2026
MZ
Mark Zuckerberg — holds since 2026-06-10 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Expecting technology to keep accelerating is a bias of our particular moment; for most of human history the tools did not change at all. — tap to centre the map on it Expecting technology to keep accelerating is a bias of our particular moment; for most of human history the tools did not change at all. Last stated 2 years ago
22 Dec 2024
AF
Adam Frank — holds since 2024-12-22 — tap for who they are
Same subject: What matters in judging technological progress is the trend over time, not the state at any single moment. — tap to centre the map on it What matters in judging technological progress is the trend over time, not the state at any single moment. Last stated 8 months ago
21 Mar 2026
TG
Tanner Greer — holds since 2026-03-21 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Technological development trajectories often display increasing returns, which entrench early paths and crowd out alternatives. — tap to centre the map on it Technological development trajectories often display increasing returns, which entrench early paths and crowd out alternatives. Last stated 2 months ago
27 Aug 2026
HF
Henry Farrell — holds since 2026-08-27 — tap for who they are
Same subject: We are already in an intelligence explosion and have been for decades, so AI will show up as more of the same exponential rather than a break in it. — tap to centre the map on it We are already in an intelligence explosion and have been for decades, so AI will show up as more of the same exponential rather than a break in it. Last stated a year ago
17 Oct 2025
AK
Andrej Karpathy — holds since 2025-10-17 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A contest between five paid firms is not the way to get good creative work. — tap to centre the map on it A contest between five paid firms is not the way to get good creative work. Last stated 3 months ago
14 Aug 2026
SK
Susan Kare — holds since 2026-08-14 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A culture that is uncompromising but also kind and supportive is the most fertile ground for creativity. — tap to centre the map on it A culture that is uncompromising but also kind and supportive is the most fertile ground for creativity. Last stated 7 months ago
12 Apr 2026
ES
Evan Spiegel — holds since 2026-04-12 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A feeling of responsibility is probably the greatest inhibitor of creativity; great ideas came from people not paid to have them — tap to centre the map on it A feeling of responsibility is probably the greatest inhibitor of creativity; great ideas came from people not paid to have them
IA
Isaac Asimov — holds since c. 1959 — tap for who they are
Same subject: "Return on tokens" has the same measurement problems as hours and capacity: it still hinges on a theory of value. — tap to centre the map on it "Return on tokens" has the same measurement problems as hours and capacity: it still hinges on a theory of value. Last stated 3 months ago
17 Aug 2026
JC
John Cutler — holds since 2026-08-17 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A badly written AI outbound email is evidence of a bad vendor, not of a limit of AI. — tap to centre the map on it A badly written AI outbound email is evidence of a bad vendor, not of a limit of AI. Last stated 10 months ago
1 Jan 2026
JL
Jason Lemkin — holds since 2026-01-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A bigger context window does not give you a smarter model; the intelligence of the model is what decides how much of that window it can actually attend to. — tap to centre the map on it A bigger context window does not give you a smarter model; the intelligence of the model is what decides how much of that window it can actually attend to. Last stated 4 months ago
15 Jul 2026
DH
Dex Horthy — holds since 2026-07-15 — tap for who they are
Same subject: "If you're not growing, you're dying" is truer of the person than of the company. — tap to centre the map on it "If you're not growing, you're dying" is truer of the person than of the company. Last stated 9 months ago
25 Jan 2026
JC
Jason Cohen — holds since 2026-01-25 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A common-sense utopia is much closer to the present day than it is to the best futures actually available to us. — tap to centre the map on it A common-sense utopia is much closer to the present day than it is to the best futures actually available to us. Last stated a year ago
3 Aug 2025
WM
William MacAskill — holds since 2025-08-03 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A company can run at a fast pace sustainably without constant overwork or undue stress — tap to centre the map on it A company can run at a fast pace sustainably without constant overwork or undue stress Last stated 4 years ago
4 Nov 2022
DH
David Heinemeier Hansson — holds since 2022-11-04 — tap for who they are
At the centre
Technological progress looks smooth and exponential from a distance but is actually made of individual S-curves up close.
Holds Read this korrent →
The thing worth finding is the exponential with the steepest curve that will run the longest — decades ago that was Moore’s law, and today it is AI progress.
Holds
The scaling curve really is S-shaped, but there are at least two cycles left in it, which means models sixteen times smarter and all knowledge work subsumed.
Holds
Long-run GDP charts hide what matters: technologies are contingent and path dependent, so the same number can describe economies that work in entirely different ways.
Holds
An exponential feels like it cannot possibly keep going, which is exactly why people keep expecting AI progress to stop.
Holds
Expecting technology to keep accelerating is a bias of our particular moment; for most of human history the tools did not change at all.
Holds
What matters in judging technological progress is the trend over time, not the state at any single moment.
Holds
Technological development trajectories often display increasing returns, which entrench early paths and crowd out alternatives.
Holds
We are already in an intelligence explosion and have been for decades, so AI will show up as more of the same exponential rather than a break in it.
Holds
A contest between five paid firms is not the way to get good creative work.
Holds
A culture that is uncompromising but also kind and supportive is the most fertile ground for creativity.
Holds
A feeling of responsibility is probably the greatest inhibitor of creativity; great ideas came from people not paid to have them
Last stated c. 1959
Holds
"Return on tokens" has the same measurement problems as hours and capacity: it still hinges on a theory of value.
Holds
A badly written AI outbound email is evidence of a bad vendor, not of a limit of AI.
Holds
A bigger context window does not give you a smarter model; the intelligence of the model is what decides how much of that window it can actually attend to.
Holds
"If you're not growing, you're dying" is truer of the person than of the company.
Holds
A common-sense utopia is much closer to the present day than it is to the best futures actually available to us.
Holds
A company can run at a fast pace sustainably without constant overwork or undue stress
Holds