On the map

At the centre An exponential feels like it cannot possibly keep going, which is exactly why people keep expecting AI progress to stop. Holds MZMark Zuckerberg Read this korrent →

• Similar wording The thing worth finding is the exponential with the steepest curve that will run the longest — decades ago that was Moore’s law, and today it is AI progress. Holds AWAlexandr Wang
• Similar wording We are already in an intelligence explosion and have been for decades, so AI will show up as more of the same exponential rather than a break in it. Holds AKAndrej Karpathy
• Similar wording Expecting technology to keep accelerating is a bias of our particular moment; for most of human history the tools did not change at all. Holds AFAdam Frank
• Similar wording What AI still cannot do in mathematics is build cumulatively on partial progress; it is trial, error and brute force rather than an idea improving through use. Holds TTTerence Tao
• Similar wording Demand for inference may be growing exponentially while GPU production can only grow linearly, and the tightening happens where those two lines cross. Holds DRDax Raad
• Similar wording We are in the phase of artificial jagged intelligence: dramatic progress alongside models that still trip on counting letters. Holds SPSundar Pichai
• Similar wording Once AI starts to feel powerful rather than mistake-prone, every AI company will become far more paranoid about safety than it is today. Holds ISIlya Sutskever
• Similar wording Whatever the term, by 2030 AI progress will be so dramatic that the world will be dealing with its consequences, good and bad, in a big way. Holds SPSundar Pichai