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← Intelligence, leverage and judgment are not normally distributed, so outcomes will be supernormal.
17 connected korrents · 17 moments from 12 Oct 2019 to 17 Sept 2026.
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government Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Read this korrent: Intelligence, leverage and judgment are not normally distributed, so outcomes will be supernormal. Intelligence, leverage and judgment are not normally distributed, so outcomes will be supernormal. Last stated 8 months ago
19 Feb 2026
NR
Naval Ravikant — holds since 2026-02-19 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The best prediction is always less extreme than the impression it is based on, but intuitive prediction is non-regressive and ignores regression to the mean. — tap to centre the map on it The best prediction is always less extreme than the impression it is based on, but intuitive prediction is non-regressive and ignores regression to the mean. Last stated 7 years ago
12 Oct 2019
DK
Daniel Kahneman — holds since 2019-10-12 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Returns for performance are superlinear rather than proportional across most domains that matter. — tap to centre the map on it Returns for performance are superlinear rather than proportional across most domains that matter. Last stated 3 years ago
1 Oct 2023
PG
Paul Graham — holds since 2023-10-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: In risk management, severe but low-probability outcomes should shape policy responses, not just the likeliest scenario. — tap to centre the map on it In risk management, severe but low-probability outcomes should shape policy responses, not just the likeliest scenario. Last stated a month ago
4 Sept 2026
AD
Andrew Dessler — holds since 2026-09-04 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Academic talent is normally distributed, so some students failing is inevitable rather than anybody's fault. — tap to centre the map on it Academic talent is normally distributed, so some students failing is inevitable rather than anybody's fault. Last stated a year ago
28 Sept 2025
FD
Freddie deBoer — holds since 2025-09-28 — tap for who they are
Same subject: AI's business results are lagging because organisations have a low tolerance for non-determinism, not because the models are not good enough. — tap to centre the map on it AI's business results are lagging because organisations have a low tolerance for non-determinism, not because the models are not good enough. Last stated 7 months ago
11 Mar 2026
SY
Steve Yegge — holds since 2026-03-11 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Good decision-making and high leverage, not hard work, is the solution. — tap to centre the map on it Good decision-making and high leverage, not hard work, is the solution. Last stated 6 years ago
12 Mar 2021
NR
Naval Ravikant — holds since 2021-03-12 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Substantive AI regulation is probably more likely to pass than conventional wisdom suggests. — tap to centre the map on it Substantive AI regulation is probably more likely to pass than conventional wisdom suggests. Last stated 3 weeks ago
17 Sept 2026
NS
Nate Silver — holds since 2026-09-17 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The causes of an outcome cannot be divided into slices that add up to 100 per cent, so a large effect from one cause does not leave a small remainder for the others. — tap to centre the map on it The causes of an outcome cannot be divided into slices that add up to 100 per cent, so a large effect from one cause does not leave a small remainder for the others. Last stated a year ago
24 Apr 2025
SD
Saloni Dattani — holds since 2025-04-24 — tap for who they are
Same subject: "If you're not growing, you're dying" is truer of the person than of the company. — tap to centre the map on it "If you're not growing, you're dying" is truer of the person than of the company. Last stated 8 months ago
25 Jan 2026
JC
Jason Cohen — holds since 2026-01-25 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A common-sense utopia is much closer to the present day than it is to the best futures actually available to us. — tap to centre the map on it A common-sense utopia is much closer to the present day than it is to the best futures actually available to us. Last stated a year ago
3 Aug 2025
WM
William MacAskill — holds since 2025-08-03 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A company can run at a fast pace sustainably without constant overwork or undue stress — tap to centre the map on it A company can run at a fast pace sustainably without constant overwork or undue stress Last stated 4 years ago
4 Nov 2022
DH
David Heinemeier Hansson — holds since 2022-11-04 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A drop in agency is the earliest sign of burnout, arriving before you consciously notice you are burning out. — tap to centre the map on it A drop in agency is the earliest sign of burnout, arriving before you consciously notice you are burning out. Last stated 3 years ago
10 Jan 2024
CH
Cate Hall — holds since 2024-01-10 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A founder who picks an idea because the market wants it will give up, because nobody can persist at something that was never important to them. — tap to centre the map on it A founder who picks an idea because the market wants it will give up, because nobody can persist at something that was never important to them. Last stated 2 years ago
19 Jun 2024
AS
Aravind Srinivas — holds since 2024-06-19 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A general inclination of all humankind is a perpetual, restless desire of power after power that ends only in death — tap to centre the map on it A general inclination of all humankind is a perpetual, restless desire of power after power that ends only in death
TH
Thomas Hobbes — holds since c. 1651 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Being professionally offended by every little thing is no longer a dominant disposition — tap to centre the map on it Being professionally offended by every little thing is no longer a dominant disposition Last stated 2 years ago
6 Nov 2024
DH
David Heinemeier Hansson — holds since 2024-11-06 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Decades of warnings about an AI apocalypse do not justify much concern today. — tap to centre the map on it Decades of warnings about an AI apocalypse do not justify much concern today. Last stated 4 weeks ago
12 Sept 2026
PF
Paul Ford — holds since 2026-09-12 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Deliberately shifting a culture is far harder now that everyone can personalise their media and skip past anything they dislike. — tap to centre the map on it Deliberately shifting a culture is far harder now that everyone can personalise their media and skip past anything they dislike. Last stated a year ago
1 Jul 2025
AE
Alice Evans — holds since 2025-07-01 — tap for who they are
At the centre
Intelligence, leverage and judgment are not normally distributed, so outcomes will be supernormal.
Holds Read this korrent →
The best prediction is always less extreme than the impression it is based on, but intuitive prediction is non-regressive and ignores regression to the mean.
Holds
Returns for performance are superlinear rather than proportional across most domains that matter.
Holds
In risk management, severe but low-probability outcomes should shape policy responses, not just the likeliest scenario.
Holds
Academic talent is normally distributed, so some students failing is inevitable rather than anybody's fault.
Holds
AI's business results are lagging because organisations have a low tolerance for non-determinism, not because the models are not good enough.
Holds
Good decision-making and high leverage, not hard work, is the solution.
Holds
Substantive AI regulation is probably more likely to pass than conventional wisdom suggests.
Holds
The causes of an outcome cannot be divided into slices that add up to 100 per cent, so a large effect from one cause does not leave a small remainder for the others.
Holds
"If you're not growing, you're dying" is truer of the person than of the company.
Holds
A common-sense utopia is much closer to the present day than it is to the best futures actually available to us.
Holds
A company can run at a fast pace sustainably without constant overwork or undue stress
Holds
A drop in agency is the earliest sign of burnout, arriving before you consciously notice you are burning out.
Holds
A founder who picks an idea because the market wants it will give up, because nobody can persist at something that was never important to them.
Holds
A general inclination of all humankind is a perpetual, restless desire of power after power that ends only in death
Last stated c. 1651
Holds
Being professionally offended by every little thing is no longer a dominant disposition
Holds
Decades of warnings about an AI apocalypse do not justify much concern today.
Holds
Deliberately shifting a culture is far harder now that everyone can personalise their media and skip past anything they dislike.
Holds