Tap a claim on the ring to put it at the centre.
← History teaches complexity rather than prediction: it can explain the…
17 connected korrents · 17 moments from 4 Jan 2017 to 25 Sept 2026.
Everything filed under investing
investing
Everything filed under stock market
stock market
Everything filed under startups
startups
Everything filed under AI and science
AI and science
Everything filed under mathematics
mathematics
Everything filed under innovation
innovation
Everything filed under Europe
Europe
Everything filed under venture capital
venture capital Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Read this korrent: History teaches complexity rather than prediction: it can explain the mechanisms of change without licensing any claim about what comes next. History teaches complexity rather than prediction: it can explain the mechanisms of change without licensing any claim about what comes next. Last stated 10 years ago
4 Jan 2017
AP
Ada Palmer — holds since 2017-01-04 — tap for who they are
Same subject: History has no predetermined path: its course turns on unpredictable contingencies rather than on deep currents that would have produced the same outcome anyway. — tap to centre the map on it History has no predetermined path: its course turns on unpredictable contingencies rather than on deep currents that would have produced the same outcome anyway. Last stated 4 years ago
26 Aug 2022
BD
Bret Devereaux — holds since 2022-08-26 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Market history teaches why things behave as they do, never what happens next, because the details never repeat. — tap to centre the map on it Market history teaches why things behave as they do, never what happens next, because the details never repeat. Last stated 3 years ago
7 Apr 2024
MH
Morgan Housel — holds since 2024-04-07 — tap for who they are
Same subject: If you can predict it, it does not count as emergence. — tap to centre the map on it If you can predict it, it does not count as emergence. Last stated 3 years ago
1 Sept 2023
NO
Neri Oxman — holds since 2023-09-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: That people are good at maths and coding, which evolution never selected for, shows human learning is not a complicated evolutionary prior but something more fundamental. — tap to centre the map on it That people are good at maths and coding, which evolution never selected for, shows human learning is not a complicated evolutionary prior but something more fundamental. Last stated 11 months ago
25 Nov 2025
IS
Ilya Sutskever — holds since 2025-11-25 — tap for who they are
Same subject: What matters in judging technological progress is the trend over time, not the state at any single moment. — tap to centre the map on it What matters in judging technological progress is the trend over time, not the state at any single moment. Last stated 7 months ago
21 Mar 2026
TG
Tanner Greer — holds since 2026-03-21 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Studying history for the cause-and-effect mechanics of things that happen over and over again allows the rules to be converted into algorithms. — tap to centre the map on it Studying history for the cause-and-effect mechanics of things that happen over and over again allows the rules to be converted into algorithms. Last stated 4 years ago
27 Sept 2022
RD
Ray Dalio — holds since 2022-09-27 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Europe's crises were predictable and overdetermined, not the unforeseeable shocks that the 'return of history' story makes of them. — tap to centre the map on it Europe's crises were predictable and overdetermined, not the unforeseeable shocks that the 'return of history' story makes of them. Last stated 4 months ago
21 Jun 2026
AT
Adam Tooze — holds since 2026-06-21 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The hypotheses AI 'co-scientist' systems are producing are ones the literature already contains, and the publicity around them does not say so. — tap to centre the map on it The hypotheses AI 'co-scientist' systems are producing are ones the literature already contains, and the publicity around them does not say so. Last stated 5 months ago
27 May 2026
DL
Derek Lowe — holds since 2026-05-27 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A bubble can only be identified in retrospect, so arguing about whether one is happening now cannot be settled now. — tap to centre the map on it A bubble can only be identified in retrospect, so arguing about whether one is happening now cannot be settled now. Last stated 10 months ago
9 Dec 2025
HM
Howard Marks — holds since 2025-12-09 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A central bank can eliminate a self-fulfilling ('sunspot') debt crisis simply by credibly committing to buy as many bonds as needed at the low interest rate. — tap to centre the map on it A central bank can eliminate a self-fulfilling ('sunspot') debt crisis simply by credibly committing to buy as many bonds as needed at the low interest rate. Last stated 4 years ago
1 Jun 2022
OB
Olivier Blanchard — holds since 2022-06-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A founder who does not know their own goal dies by a thousand compromises and ends up running a company they do not want to work at. — tap to centre the map on it A founder who does not know their own goal dies by a thousand compromises and ends up running a company they do not want to work at. Last stated 5 months ago
2 Jun 2026
MP
Mark Pincus — holds since 2026-06-02 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A "good business" now means one that can display quarter-on-quarter stock growth, not one that makes good products at a fair price. — tap to centre the map on it A "good business" now means one that can display quarter-on-quarter stock growth, not one that makes good products at a fair price. Last stated a year ago
21 May 2025
EZ
Ed Zitron — holds since 2025-05-21 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A high, stable dividend yield gives a stock's valuation a downside floor that growth stocks without dividends lack. — tap to centre the map on it A high, stable dividend yield gives a stock's valuation a downside floor that growth stocks without dividends lack. Last stated 8 months ago
3 Mar 2026
SB
Sanjay Bakshi — holds since 2026-03-03 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A society's prosperity comes from its productivity, not from the financial system or stock market. — tap to centre the map on it A society's prosperity comes from its productivity, not from the financial system or stock market. Last stated 4 weeks ago
25 Sept 2026
MM
Mr. Money Mustache — holds since 2026-09-25 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A first-time founder has an advantage over a repeat winner, because past success makes it too easy to raise money and hire against a big vision before there is product-market fit. — tap to centre the map on it A first-time founder has an advantage over a repeat winner, because past success makes it too easy to raise money and hire against a big vision before there is product-market fit. Last stated 4 months ago
14 Jun 2026
MP
Mark Pincus — holds since 2026-06-14 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A founder should take half the valuation if it buys all of the control, because the right to be wrong in your own way is what founding was for. — tap to centre the map on it A founder should take half the valuation if it buys all of the control, because the right to be wrong in your own way is what founding was for. Last stated 5 months ago
2 Jun 2026
MP
Mark Pincus — holds since 2026-06-02 — tap for who they are
Same subject: About 5% is the most common final ownership stake for the founder of a VC-funded startup that works out. — tap to centre the map on it About 5% is the most common final ownership stake for the founder of a VC-funded startup that works out. Last stated 3 months ago
18 Jul 2026
PL
Pieter Levels — holds since 2026-07-18 — tap for who they are
At the centre
History teaches complexity rather than prediction: it can explain the mechanisms of change without licensing any claim about what comes next.
Holds Read this korrent →
History has no predetermined path: its course turns on unpredictable contingencies rather than on deep currents that would have produced the same outcome anyway.
Holds
Market history teaches why things behave as they do, never what happens next, because the details never repeat.
Holds
If you can predict it, it does not count as emergence.
Holds
That people are good at maths and coding, which evolution never selected for, shows human learning is not a complicated evolutionary prior but something more fundamental.
Holds
What matters in judging technological progress is the trend over time, not the state at any single moment.
Holds
Studying history for the cause-and-effect mechanics of things that happen over and over again allows the rules to be converted into algorithms.
Holds
Europe's crises were predictable and overdetermined, not the unforeseeable shocks that the 'return of history' story makes of them.
Holds
The hypotheses AI 'co-scientist' systems are producing are ones the literature already contains, and the publicity around them does not say so.
Holds
A bubble can only be identified in retrospect, so arguing about whether one is happening now cannot be settled now.
Holds
A central bank can eliminate a self-fulfilling ('sunspot') debt crisis simply by credibly committing to buy as many bonds as needed at the low interest rate.
Holds
A founder who does not know their own goal dies by a thousand compromises and ends up running a company they do not want to work at.
Holds
A "good business" now means one that can display quarter-on-quarter stock growth, not one that makes good products at a fair price.
Holds
A high, stable dividend yield gives a stock's valuation a downside floor that growth stocks without dividends lack.
Holds
A society's prosperity comes from its productivity, not from the financial system or stock market.
Holds
A first-time founder has an advantage over a repeat winner, because past success makes it too easy to raise money and hire against a big vision before there is product-market fit.
Holds
A founder should take half the valuation if it buys all of the control, because the right to be wrong in your own way is what founding was for.
Holds
About 5% is the most common final ownership stake for the founder of a VC-funded startup that works out.
Holds