Tap a claim on the ring to put it at the centre.
← If you can predict it, it does not count as emergence.
17 connected korrents · 16 moments on record from 7 Nov 2014 to 26 Aug 2026.
Everything filed under demographics
demographics
Everything filed under immigration
immigration
Everything filed under inflation
inflation Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Read this korrent: If you can predict it, it does not count as emergence. If you can predict it, it does not count as emergence. Last stated 3 years ago
1 Sept 2023
NO
Neri Oxman — holds since 2023-09-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: History teaches complexity rather than prediction: it can explain the mechanisms of change without licensing any claim about what comes next. — tap to centre the map on it History teaches complexity rather than prediction: it can explain the mechanisms of change without licensing any claim about what comes next. Last stated 10 years ago
4 Jan 2017
AP
Ada Palmer — holds since 2017-01-04 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A language model can predict what a person would say but not what will happen, and only the second of those is a model of the world. — tap to centre the map on it A language model can predict what a person would say but not what will happen, and only the second of those is a model of the world. Last stated 11 months ago
26 Sept 2025
RS
Richard Sutton — holds since 2025-09-26 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Having a goal is the essence of intelligence; a system that only predicts is a behaving system, not an intelligent one. — tap to centre the map on it Having a goal is the essence of intelligence; a system that only predicts is a behaving system, not an intelligent one. Last stated 11 months ago
26 Sept 2025
RS
Richard Sutton — holds since 2025-09-26 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Life expectancy is not a prediction of how long people alive today will live. — tap to centre the map on it Life expectancy is not a prediction of how long people alive today will live. Last stated 3 years ago
2 Jan 2024
SD
Saloni Dattani — holds since 2024-01-02 — tap for who they are
Same subject: "There is no empirical evidence against my position" is not an argument for it. — tap to centre the map on it "There is no empirical evidence against my position" is not an argument for it. Last stated 12 years ago
7 Nov 2014
DL
Dan Luu — holds since 2014-11-07 — tap for who they are
Same subject: If AI enthusiasm does not produce a bubble on the historical pattern, it will be the first transformative technology that did not. — tap to centre the map on it If AI enthusiasm does not produce a bubble on the historical pattern, it will be the first transformative technology that did not. Last stated 9 months ago
9 Dec 2025
HM
Howard Marks — holds since 2025-12-09 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Ruling out every measurable cause because none explains all the variation, and putting an unmeasured one in their place, is not an explanation. — tap to centre the map on it Ruling out every measurable cause because none explains all the variation, and putting an unmeasured one in their place, is not an explanation. Last stated 3 weeks ago
20 Aug 2026
LS
Lyman Stone — holds since 2026-08-20 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Numbers offer a false precision: which metrics you choose to look at, and whether a five percent rise is good, are both art rather than science. — tap to centre the map on it Numbers offer a false precision: which metrics you choose to look at, and whether a five percent rise is good, are both art rather than science. Last stated 12 months ago
21 Sept 2025
JZ
Julie Zhuo — holds since 2025-09-21 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A model fitted only to trends in its own outcome cannot forecast anything, because it contains no variable anyone could change. — tap to centre the map on it A model fitted only to trends in its own outcome cannot forecast anything, because it contains no variable anyone could change. Last stated 3 weeks ago
20 Aug 2026
LS
Lyman Stone — holds since 2026-08-20 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A religion cannot revive itself by encouraging its members to have more children. — tap to centre the map on it A religion cannot revive itself by encouraging its members to have more children. Last stated 2 weeks ago
24 Aug 2026
RB
Ryan Burge — holds since 2026-08-24 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Any theory of the fall in birth rates must explain both the worldwide collapse and the differences between countries, and most theories explain only one. — tap to centre the map on it Any theory of the fall in birth rates must explain both the worldwide collapse and the differences between countries, and most theories explain only one. Last stated 2 years ago
1 Nov 2024
AE
Alice Evans — holds since 2024-11-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A country benefits from immigration in proportion to whether the people arriving are net contributors who assimilate. — tap to centre the map on it A country benefits from immigration in proportion to whether the people arriving are net contributors who assimilate. Last stated 2 weeks ago
26 Aug 2026
DH
David Heinemeier Hansson — holds since 2026-08-26 — tap for who they are
Same subject: America treats its inability to build and to admit skilled migrants as mysteries to be endured rather than problems to be solved. — tap to centre the map on it America treats its inability to build and to admit skilled migrants as mysteries to be endured rather than problems to be solved. Last stated 3 years ago
23 Jan 2024
DW
Dan Wang — holds since 2024-01-23 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Anti-immigration parties gain ground by generating fear, not by winning the argument about what immigration does. — tap to centre the map on it Anti-immigration parties gain ground by generating fear, not by winning the argument about what immigration does. Last stated 3 years ago
29 Nov 2023
LP
Lant Pritchett — holds since 2023-11-29 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A company's staff-engineer bar should be set against the best companies in the industry rather than against its own history, which is what makes title inflation a real cost. — tap to centre the map on it A company's staff-engineer bar should be set against the best companies in the industry rather than against its own history, which is what makes title inflation a real cost. Last stated 5 months ago
1 Apr 2026
TP
Thuan Pham — holds since 2026-04-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Cash welfare benefits contributed at least somewhat to the inflation of 2021-2022. — tap to centre the map on it Cash welfare benefits contributed at least somewhat to the inflation of 2021-2022. Last stated 4 years ago
25 Jul 2022
NS
Noah Smith — holds since 2022-07-25 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Central bank purchases of government bonds are not bailouts and do not automatically cause inflation, since they only change the composition of the consolidated government's liabilities, not their total. — tap to centre the map on it Central bank purchases of government bonds are not bailouts and do not automatically cause inflation, since they only change the composition of the consolidated government's liabilities, not their total. Last stated 4 years ago
1 Jun 2022
OB
Olivier Blanchard — holds since 2022-06-01 — tap for who they are
At the centre
If you can predict it, it does not count as emergence.
Holds NO Neri OxmanRead this korrent →
History teaches complexity rather than prediction: it can explain the mechanisms of change without licensing any claim about what comes next.
Holds AP Ada Palmer
A language model can predict what a person would say but not what will happen, and only the second of those is a model of the world.
Holds RS Richard Sutton
Having a goal is the essence of intelligence; a system that only predicts is a behaving system, not an intelligent one.
Holds RS Richard Sutton
Life expectancy is not a prediction of how long people alive today will live.
Holds SD Saloni Dattani
"There is no empirical evidence against my position" is not an argument for it.
Holds DL Dan Luu
If AI enthusiasm does not produce a bubble on the historical pattern, it will be the first transformative technology that did not.
Holds HM Howard Marks
Ruling out every measurable cause because none explains all the variation, and putting an unmeasured one in their place, is not an explanation.
Holds LS Lyman Stone
Numbers offer a false precision: which metrics you choose to look at, and whether a five percent rise is good, are both art rather than science.
Holds JZ Julie Zhuo
A model fitted only to trends in its own outcome cannot forecast anything, because it contains no variable anyone could change.
Holds LS Lyman Stone
A religion cannot revive itself by encouraging its members to have more children.
Holds RB Ryan Burge
Any theory of the fall in birth rates must explain both the worldwide collapse and the differences between countries, and most theories explain only one.
Holds AE Alice Evans
A country benefits from immigration in proportion to whether the people arriving are net contributors who assimilate.
Holds
America treats its inability to build and to admit skilled migrants as mysteries to be endured rather than problems to be solved.
Holds DW Dan Wang
Anti-immigration parties gain ground by generating fear, not by winning the argument about what immigration does.
Holds LP Lant Pritchett
A company's staff-engineer bar should be set against the best companies in the industry rather than against its own history, which is what makes title inflation a real cost.
Holds TP Thuan Pham
Cash welfare benefits contributed at least somewhat to the inflation of 2021-2022.
Holds
Central bank purchases of government bonds are not bailouts and do not automatically cause inflation, since they only change the composition of the consolidated government's liabilities, not their total.
Holds