Tap a claim on the ring to put it at the centre.
← Predicting or describing something is not the same as understanding it
17 connected korrents · 15 moments from 16 Jan 2015 to 25 Oct 2026.
Everything filed under measuring intelligence
measuring intelligence
Everything filed under OpenAI
OpenAI
Everything filed under scaling laws
scaling laws
Everything filed under LLMs
LLMs Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Read this korrent: Predicting or describing something is not the same as understanding it Predicting or describing something is not the same as understanding it
DD
David Deutsch — holds since c. 1997 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A language model can predict what a person would say but not what will happen, and only the second of those is a model of the world. — tap to centre the map on it A language model can predict what a person would say but not what will happen, and only the second of those is a model of the world. Last stated a year ago
26 Sept 2025
RS
Richard Sutton — holds since 2025-09-26 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Being able to statistically predict what someone will say does not mean you understand them. — tap to centre the map on it Being able to statistically predict what someone will say does not mean you understand them. Last stated a month ago
18 Sept 2026
CD
Cory Doctorow — holds since 2026-09-18 — tap for who they are
Same subject: If you can predict it, it does not count as emergence. — tap to centre the map on it If you can predict it, it does not count as emergence. Last stated 3 years ago
1 Sept 2023
NO
Neri Oxman — holds since 2023-09-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: History teaches complexity rather than prediction: it can explain the mechanisms of change without licensing any claim about what comes next. — tap to centre the map on it History teaches complexity rather than prediction: it can explain the mechanisms of change without licensing any claim about what comes next. Last stated 10 years ago
4 Jan 2017
AP
Ada Palmer — holds since 2017-01-04 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Predictions should be less extreme than the information they rest on, an idea that is deeply counterintuitive — tap to centre the map on it Predictions should be less extreme than the information they rest on, an idea that is deeply counterintuitive
DK
Daniel Kahneman — holds since c. 2002–2003 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Engagement is not the same as understanding. — tap to centre the map on it Engagement is not the same as understanding. Last stated a week ago
25 Oct 2026
BD
Brad DeLong — holds since 2026-10-25 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Being predictably good is more difficult, and so more impressive, than being unpredictable. — tap to centre the map on it Being predictably good is more difficult, and so more impressive, than being unpredictable. Last stated 7 years ago
12 Jun 2019
SS
Steph Smith — holds since 2019-06-12 — tap for who they are
Same subject: We sometimes think we understand a new idea when we have mistaken it for one we already knew. — tap to centre the map on it We sometimes think we understand a new idea when we have mistaken it for one we already knew. Last stated 9 months ago
2 Feb 2026
RG
Rebecca Newberger Goldstein — holds since 2026-02-02 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A suitably advanced digital computer can acquire general intelligence. — tap to centre the map on it A suitably advanced digital computer can acquire general intelligence. Last stated 12 years ago
16 Jan 2015
SH
Sam Harris — holds since 2015-01-16 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A true artificial general intelligence cannot exist without being recognized as a moral subject. — tap to centre the map on it A true artificial general intelligence cannot exist without being recognized as a moral subject. Last stated a year ago
10 Jun 2025
SH
Samuel Hammond — holds since 2025-06-10 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A unit of measure needs defining, perhaps via a chain of increasingly hard problems, each pair of which a single model can solve. — tap to centre the map on it A unit of measure needs defining, perhaps via a chain of increasingly hard problems, each pair of which a single model can solve. Last stated 2 months ago
15 Sept 2026
PG
Paul Graham — holds since 2026-09-15 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A PHP vulnerability found with GPT-5.6 Sol will cause havoc this week. — tap to centre the map on it A PHP vulnerability found with GPT-5.6 Sol will cause havoc this week. Last stated 2 weeks ago
21 Oct 2026
PS
Peter Steinberger — holds since 2026-10-21 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A startup should not begin life as a nonprofit and bolt a for-profit arm on later, whatever OpenAI's own history suggests. — tap to centre the map on it A startup should not begin life as a nonprofit and bolt a for-profit arm on later, whatever OpenAI's own history suggests. Last stated 3 years ago
18 Mar 2024
SA
Sam Altman — holds since 2024-03-18 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Advertising was a necessary phase for the internet but a momentary industry, and an AI people pay for is better because they know the answers are not influenced by advertisers. — tap to centre the map on it Advertising was a necessary phase for the internet but a momentary industry, and an AI people pay for is better because they know the answers are not influenced by advertisers. Last stated 3 years ago
18 Mar 2024
SA
Sam Altman — holds since 2024-03-18 — tap for who they are
Same subject: "Scaling" was powerful because it was one word: naming a research direction is what tells a whole field what to do next. — tap to centre the map on it "Scaling" was powerful because it was one word: naming a research direction is what tells a whole field what to do next. Last stated 11 months ago
25 Nov 2025
IS
Ilya Sutskever — holds since 2025-11-25 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A benchmark result should be reported under a stated budget, or as a curve against test-time compute — never as a single number. — tap to centre the map on it A benchmark result should be reported under a stated budget, or as a curve against test-time compute — never as a single number. Last stated 4 months ago
26 Jun 2026
NB
Noam Brown — holds since 2026-06-26 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A lab should spend most of its compute on research rather than on building the next model, because research is where the tenfold yearly efficiency gains come from. — tap to centre the map on it A lab should spend most of its compute on research rather than on building the next model, because research is where the tenfold yearly efficiency gains come from. Last stated 8 months ago
13 Mar 2026
DP
Dylan Patel — holds since 2026-03-13 — tap for who they are
At the centre
Predicting or describing something is not the same as understanding it
Last stated c. 1997
Holds Read this korrent →
A language model can predict what a person would say but not what will happen, and only the second of those is a model of the world.
Holds
Being able to statistically predict what someone will say does not mean you understand them.
Holds
If you can predict it, it does not count as emergence.
Holds
History teaches complexity rather than prediction: it can explain the mechanisms of change without licensing any claim about what comes next.
Holds
Predictions should be less extreme than the information they rest on, an idea that is deeply counterintuitive
Last stated c. 2002–2003
Holds
Engagement is not the same as understanding.
Holds
Being predictably good is more difficult, and so more impressive, than being unpredictable.
Holds
We sometimes think we understand a new idea when we have mistaken it for one we already knew.
Holds
A suitably advanced digital computer can acquire general intelligence.
Holds
A true artificial general intelligence cannot exist without being recognized as a moral subject.
Holds
A unit of measure needs defining, perhaps via a chain of increasingly hard problems, each pair of which a single model can solve.
Holds
A PHP vulnerability found with GPT-5.6 Sol will cause havoc this week.
Holds
A startup should not begin life as a nonprofit and bolt a for-profit arm on later, whatever OpenAI's own history suggests.
Holds
Advertising was a necessary phase for the internet but a momentary industry, and an AI people pay for is better because they know the answers are not influenced by advertisers.
Holds
"Scaling" was powerful because it was one word: naming a research direction is what tells a whole field what to do next.
Holds
A benchmark result should be reported under a stated budget, or as a curve against test-time compute — never as a single number.
Holds
A lab should spend most of its compute on research rather than on building the next model, because research is where the tenfold yearly efficiency gains come from.
Holds