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← As much as possible, one should avoid predicting the future and…
17 connected korrents · 14 moments from 14 May 2018 to 17 Sept 2026.
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investing Cannot both be true Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Read this korrent: As much as possible, one should avoid predicting the future and instead wait for it to become the present and reveal what is actually needed. As much as possible, one should avoid predicting the future and instead wait for it to become the present and reveal what is actually needed. Last stated a year ago
14 May 2025
DS
Derek Sivers — holds since 2025-05-14 — tap for who they are
Cannot both be true: Build for the model six months from now, not the model of today. — tap to centre the map on it Build for the model six months from now, not the model of today. Last stated 8 months ago
25 Feb 2026
BC
Boris Cherny — holds since 2026-02-25 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Avoiding catastrophe is not enough, because a future in which humanity survives can still fall far short of what was possible. — tap to centre the map on it Avoiding catastrophe is not enough, because a future in which humanity survives can still fall far short of what was possible. Last stated a year ago
3 Aug 2025
WM
William MacAskill — holds since 2025-08-03 — tap for who they are
Same subject: We should act on the assumption that we have almost no idea what the best futures would look like, so committing today to any particular vision would be a great mistake. — tap to centre the map on it We should act on the assumption that we have almost no idea what the best futures would look like, so committing today to any particular vision would be a great mistake. Last stated a year ago
3 Aug 2025
WM
William MacAskill — holds since 2025-08-03 — tap for who they are
Same subject: You do not need to predict the future; you only need to live in everyone else's relative future, which is a few high-conviction beta updates away. — tap to centre the map on it You do not need to predict the future; you only need to live in everyone else's relative future, which is a few high-conviction beta updates away. Last stated a year ago
18 Sept 2025
TL
Tobias Lütke — holds since 2025-09-18 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The future is not determined, and it can be navigated better by understanding the likelihood of events that could affect us. — tap to centre the map on it The future is not determined, and it can be navigated better by understanding the likelihood of events that could affect us. Last stated 8 years ago
14 May 2018
SP
Shane Parrish — holds since 2018-05-14 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Understanding the future depends more on imagination and a clear theory of change than on analytical skill alone. — tap to centre the map on it Understanding the future depends more on imagination and a clear theory of change than on analytical skill alone. Last stated 2 years ago
9 Dec 2024
NB
Nat Bullard — holds since 2024-12-09 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Whether anyone can actually do anything about how good the future is, rather than whether it matters, is the strongest objection to prioritising it. — tap to centre the map on it Whether anyone can actually do anything about how good the future is, rather than whether it matters, is the strongest objection to prioritising it. Last stated a year ago
3 Aug 2025
WM
William MacAskill — holds since 2025-08-03 — tap for who they are
Same subject: When assessing an economy's trajectory, current performance signals are more useful than forecasts of potential GDP growth. — tap to centre the map on it When assessing an economy's trajectory, current performance signals are more useful than forecasts of potential GDP growth. Last stated a year ago
13 Aug 2025
AB
Andrew Batson — holds since 2025-08-13 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Under rising uncertainty, people should shorten their planning horizon rather than invest in a distant future. — tap to centre the map on it Under rising uncertainty, people should shorten their planning horizon rather than invest in a distant future. Last stated 3 months ago
15 Jul 2026
TF
Tiago Forte — holds since 2026-07-15 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A badly written AI outbound email is evidence of a bad vendor, not of a limit of AI. — tap to centre the map on it A badly written AI outbound email is evidence of a bad vendor, not of a limit of AI. Last stated 10 months ago
1 Jan 2026
JL
Jason Lemkin — holds since 2026-01-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A bigger context window does not give you a smarter model; the intelligence of the model is what decides how much of that window it can actually attend to. — tap to centre the map on it A bigger context window does not give you a smarter model; the intelligence of the model is what decides how much of that window it can actually attend to. Last stated 3 months ago
15 Jul 2026
DH
Dex Horthy — holds since 2026-07-15 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A body of publications is easy for AI models to consume via pretraining corpora but cumbersome for most humans due to CAPTCHAs, accounts, and paywalls. — tap to centre the map on it A body of publications is easy for AI models to consume via pretraining corpora but cumbersome for most humans due to CAPTCHAs, accounts, and paywalls. Last stated a month ago
17 Sept 2026
PC
Patrick Collison — holds since 2026-09-17 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A startup should not begin life as a nonprofit and bolt a for-profit arm on later, whatever OpenAI's own history suggests. — tap to centre the map on it A startup should not begin life as a nonprofit and bolt a for-profit arm on later, whatever OpenAI's own history suggests. Last stated 3 years ago
18 Mar 2024
SA
Sam Altman — holds since 2024-03-18 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A tiny language model inventing a plausible-sounding name is the same phenomenon as a large one confidently stating a false fact. — tap to centre the map on it A tiny language model inventing a plausible-sounding name is the same phenomenon as a large one confidently stating a false fact. Last stated 8 months ago
12 Feb 2026
AK
Andrej Karpathy — holds since 2026-02-12 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Advertising was a necessary phase for the internet but a momentary industry, and an AI people pay for is better because they know the answers are not influenced by advertisers. — tap to centre the map on it Advertising was a necessary phase for the internet but a momentary industry, and an AI people pay for is better because they know the answers are not influenced by advertisers. Last stated 3 years ago
18 Mar 2024
SA
Sam Altman — holds since 2024-03-18 — tap for who they are
Same subject: "Scaling" was powerful because it was one word: naming a research direction is what tells a whole field what to do next. — tap to centre the map on it "Scaling" was powerful because it was one word: naming a research direction is what tells a whole field what to do next. Last stated 11 months ago
25 Nov 2025
IS
Ilya Sutskever — holds since 2025-11-25 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A benchmark result should be reported under a stated budget, or as a curve against test-time compute — never as a single number. — tap to centre the map on it A benchmark result should be reported under a stated budget, or as a curve against test-time compute — never as a single number. Last stated 4 months ago
26 Jun 2026
NB
Noam Brown — holds since 2026-06-26 — tap for who they are
At the centre
As much as possible, one should avoid predicting the future and instead wait for it to become the present and reveal what is actually needed.
Holds Read this korrent →
Build for the model six months from now, not the model of today.
Holds
Avoiding catastrophe is not enough, because a future in which humanity survives can still fall far short of what was possible.
Holds
We should act on the assumption that we have almost no idea what the best futures would look like, so committing today to any particular vision would be a great mistake.
Holds
You do not need to predict the future; you only need to live in everyone else's relative future, which is a few high-conviction beta updates away.
Holds
The future is not determined, and it can be navigated better by understanding the likelihood of events that could affect us.
Holds
Understanding the future depends more on imagination and a clear theory of change than on analytical skill alone.
Holds
Whether anyone can actually do anything about how good the future is, rather than whether it matters, is the strongest objection to prioritising it.
Holds
When assessing an economy's trajectory, current performance signals are more useful than forecasts of potential GDP growth.
Holds
Under rising uncertainty, people should shorten their planning horizon rather than invest in a distant future.
Holds
A badly written AI outbound email is evidence of a bad vendor, not of a limit of AI.
Holds
A bigger context window does not give you a smarter model; the intelligence of the model is what decides how much of that window it can actually attend to.
Holds
A body of publications is easy for AI models to consume via pretraining corpora but cumbersome for most humans due to CAPTCHAs, accounts, and paywalls.
Holds
A startup should not begin life as a nonprofit and bolt a for-profit arm on later, whatever OpenAI's own history suggests.
Holds
A tiny language model inventing a plausible-sounding name is the same phenomenon as a large one confidently stating a false fact.
Holds
Advertising was a necessary phase for the internet but a momentary industry, and an AI people pay for is better because they know the answers are not influenced by advertisers.
Holds
"Scaling" was powerful because it was one word: naming a research direction is what tells a whole field what to do next.
Holds
A benchmark result should be reported under a stated budget, or as a curve against test-time compute — never as a single number.
Holds