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← The future is not determined, and it can be navigated better by…
17 connected korrents · 15 moments from 13 May 2007 to 27 Sept 2026.
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mental models
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Everything filed under humility
humility Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Read this korrent: The future is not determined, and it can be navigated better by understanding the likelihood of events that could affect us. The future is not determined, and it can be navigated better by understanding the likelihood of events that could affect us. Last stated 8 years ago
14 May 2018
SP
Shane Parrish — holds since 2018-05-14 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The future of interaction is a choice, not something that happens to us: people choose which visions to pursue and which research to fund. — tap to centre the map on it The future of interaction is a choice, not something that happens to us: people choose which visions to pursue and which research to fund. Last stated 15 years ago
8 Nov 2011
BV
Bret Victor — holds since 2011-11-08 — tap for who they are
Same subject: As much as possible, one should avoid predicting the future and instead wait for it to become the present and reveal what is actually needed. — tap to centre the map on it As much as possible, one should avoid predicting the future and instead wait for it to become the present and reveal what is actually needed. Last stated a year ago
14 May 2025
DS
Derek Sivers — holds since 2025-05-14 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The future will be defined by people who learn, not people who know. — tap to centre the map on it The future will be defined by people who learn, not people who know. Last stated 2 weeks ago
27 Sept 2026
MG
Molly Graham — holds since 2026-09-27 — tap for who they are
Same subject: People don't really control most outcomes, so the sensible response to events is to look for the good in them. — tap to centre the map on it People don't really control most outcomes, so the sensible response to events is to look for the good in them. Last stated 4 years ago
21 Sept 2022
SC
Steve Coast — holds since 2022-09-21 — tap for who they are
Same subject: We should act on the assumption that we have almost no idea what the best futures would look like, so committing today to any particular vision would be a great mistake. — tap to centre the map on it We should act on the assumption that we have almost no idea what the best futures would look like, so committing today to any particular vision would be a great mistake. Last stated a year ago
3 Aug 2025
WM
William MacAskill — holds since 2025-08-03 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Understanding the future depends more on imagination and a clear theory of change than on analytical skill alone. — tap to centre the map on it Understanding the future depends more on imagination and a clear theory of change than on analytical skill alone. Last stated 2 years ago
9 Dec 2024
NB
Nat Bullard — holds since 2024-12-09 — tap for who they are
Same subject: People tend to think they understand the future better than they actually do — tap to centre the map on it People tend to think they understand the future better than they actually do Last stated 4 years ago
3 Mar 2023
MM
Michael Mauboussin — holds since 2023-03-03 — tap for who they are
Same subject: People may underrate the power of intuition and of deciding what they want the future to be. — tap to centre the map on it People may underrate the power of intuition and of deciding what they want the future to be. Last stated a month ago
30 Aug 2026
TS
Tara Seshan — holds since 2026-08-30 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A difficult problem is better thought through both forwards and backward than in one direction only. — tap to centre the map on it A difficult problem is better thought through both forwards and backward than in one direction only. Last stated 13 years ago
28 Oct 2013
SP
Shane Parrish — holds since 2013-10-28 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A few dozen mental models are enough to get a firm grasp of how the world works. — tap to centre the map on it A few dozen mental models are enough to get a firm grasp of how the world works. Last stated 9 years ago
by 12 Aug 2017
JC
James Clear — holds since 2017-08-12 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A map is not the territory it represents, but if it is correct it shares the territory's structure, which is what makes it useful. — tap to centre the map on it A map is not the territory it represents, but if it is correct it shares the territory's structure, which is what makes it useful.
AK
Alfred Korzybski — holds since c. 1933 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Inversion frequently solves problems that nothing else will — tap to centre the map on it Inversion frequently solves problems that nothing else will Last stated 19 years ago
13 May 2007
CM
Charlie Munger — holds since 2007-05-13 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Without the elementary mathematics of probability in one’s repertoire, one gives everybody else a huge advantage — tap to centre the map on it Without the elementary mathematics of probability in one’s repertoire, one gives everybody else a huge advantage
CM
Charlie Munger — holds since c. 1994 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A persistently rising dividend yield eventually forces capital appreciation as the market rerates the stock. — tap to centre the map on it A persistently rising dividend yield eventually forces capital appreciation as the market rerates the stock. Last stated 7 months ago
3 Mar 2026
SB
Sanjay Bakshi — holds since 2026-03-03 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Outside the circle of competence, confidence does not diminish as fast as competence, and the biggest risk is what one does not see. — tap to centre the map on it Outside the circle of competence, confidence does not diminish as fast as competence, and the biggest risk is what one does not see. Last stated 13 years ago
1 Dec 2013
SP
Shane Parrish — holds since 2013-12-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: To improve the odds of success, a person should understand the perimeter of their circle of competence, operate well inside it, and be willing to say "I don't know". — tap to centre the map on it To improve the odds of success, a person should understand the perimeter of their circle of competence, operate well inside it, and be willing to say "I don't know". Last stated 13 years ago
1 Dec 2013
SP
Shane Parrish — holds since 2013-12-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A CEO grading themselves a failure for their mistakes does not help; every CEO makes thousands of mistakes — tap to centre the map on it A CEO grading themselves a failure for their mistakes does not help; every CEO makes thousands of mistakes Last stated 14 years ago
15 Jun 2012
BH
Ben Horowitz — holds since 2012-06-15 — tap for who they are
At the centre
The future is not determined, and it can be navigated better by understanding the likelihood of events that could affect us.
Holds Read this korrent →
The future of interaction is a choice, not something that happens to us: people choose which visions to pursue and which research to fund.
Holds
As much as possible, one should avoid predicting the future and instead wait for it to become the present and reveal what is actually needed.
Holds
The future will be defined by people who learn, not people who know.
Holds
People don't really control most outcomes, so the sensible response to events is to look for the good in them.
Holds
We should act on the assumption that we have almost no idea what the best futures would look like, so committing today to any particular vision would be a great mistake.
Holds
Understanding the future depends more on imagination and a clear theory of change than on analytical skill alone.
Holds
People tend to think they understand the future better than they actually do
Holds
People may underrate the power of intuition and of deciding what they want the future to be.
Holds
A difficult problem is better thought through both forwards and backward than in one direction only.
Holds
A few dozen mental models are enough to get a firm grasp of how the world works.
Holds
A map is not the territory it represents, but if it is correct it shares the territory's structure, which is what makes it useful.
Last stated c. 1933
Holds
Inversion frequently solves problems that nothing else will
Holds
Without the elementary mathematics of probability in one’s repertoire, one gives everybody else a huge advantage
Last stated c. 1994
Holds
A persistently rising dividend yield eventually forces capital appreciation as the market rerates the stock.
Holds
Outside the circle of competence, confidence does not diminish as fast as competence, and the biggest risk is what one does not see.
Holds
To improve the odds of success, a person should understand the perimeter of their circle of competence, operate well inside it, and be willing to say "I don't know".
Holds
A CEO grading themselves a failure for their mistakes does not help; every CEO makes thousands of mistakes
Holds