korrents

What Brian Potter thinks about America

@brian-potter · 43 positions · 1 change of mind

Structural engineer and writer, author of the Construction Physics newsletter, where he takes apart how large physical things — buildings, ships, semiconductor fabs, aeroplanes — actually get made, and why the cost of making them moves the way it does.

Everything they publish, on ppll ↗

Brian Potter did not write this page.

We collected these quotes from things they published elsewhere, and every quote links to where it was said. They have no account here and have not endorsed this site. Quotes are word for word; the short line under each one is our own restatement, not their wording. Their own site. Is this you? Claim it or ask us to remove it. Or tell us what is wrong here.

18 dated positions, 2022 to 2025, in their own words. Our reading of what Brian Potter has said — not written or endorsed by them.

Our readingThe recurring move is to take an American decline story and check whether it is really American: stagnant construction productivity turns out to be worldwide, and uncompetitive shipbuilding a century old rather than recent. Where a constraint is real it is named as permitting and input costs, not money.

Their wordsOverall, my take when looking at this data is that stagnant construction productivity is an extremely widespread problem.

Stagnant construction productivity is not an American failure but a worldwide one, and most rich countries that once had it have lost it.

  1. Our readingStagnant construction productivity is not an American failure but a worldwide one, and most rich countries that once had it have lost it.

    Their wordsOverall, my take when looking at this data is that stagnant construction productivity is an extremely widespread problem.

    ↗Stagnant Construction Productivity Is a Worldwide Problemconstruction-physics.com 2nd of 3 in this piece

    Interesting

  3. Our readingAmerica can copy other countries to reach the frontier of what building already costs elsewhere; nobody knows how to push that frontier forward.

    Their wordsThe US has a lot to learn from other countries for how to catch up to the efficient frontier, especially for certain types of construction (ie: transit) and in certain places in the country (ie: expensive coastal metros).

    ↗Stagnant Construction Productivity Is a Worldwide Problemconstruction-physics.com 3rd of 3 in this piece

    Interesting
  4. 3 months earlier

  5. Our reading · no longer heldAmerican data centres consume about 66 million gallons of water a day, a small fraction of what they withdraw.

    No longer holdsSo to wrap up, I misread the Berkeley Report and significantly underestimated US data center water consumption.

    SaidBut I didn’t read the report closely enough, and apparently this 579 million gallons a day was in fact consumptive use.

    ↗I Was Wrong About Data Center Water Consumptionconstruction-physics.com 1st of 2 in this piece

    data centers

    Interesting
  6. 9 days earlier

  7. Our readingAmerican data centres consume about 66 million gallons of water a day, a small fraction of what they withdraw.

    Their wordsTaking this into account, actual water consumed by data centers is around 66 million gallons per day.

    ↗How Does the US Use Water?construction-physics.com

    data centers

    Interesting
  8. 3 months earlier

  9. Our readingAmerican cities chose subways over elevated railways knowing they cost two to four times as much, because nobody would live under an el.

    Their wordsCities began to prefer subways to elevateds, despite the fact that they were two to four times as expensive to build as elevated trains.

    ↗Why we stopped building subways cheaplyworksinprogress.news 1st of 3 in this piece

    Interesting

  11. Our readingThe binding constraint on building anything in America is permitting and litigation, not money.

    Their wordsPolitical costs and civic opposition will often make a technology unviable regardless of how the dollars and cents add up.

    ↗Why we stopped building subways cheaplyworksinprogress.news 3rd of 3 in this piece

    permitting

    Interesting
  12. 9 months earlier

  13. Our readingAmerican shipbuilding capacity has collapsed to a rounding error beside China's.

    Their wordsThe U.S. Navy estimates that China’s shipbuilding capacity is 232 times our own.

    ↗Why Can't the U.S. Build Ships?construction-physics.com 1st of 8 in this piece

    China

    Interesting

  15. Our readingAmerican shipbuilding has been uncompetitive for a century; it is not a recent decline.

    Their wordsThe situation we face today, with U.S. ships costing at least twice as much to build as ships built elsewhere, is not a recent development; it’s been the norm for at least the past 100 years.

    ↗Why Can't the U.S. Build Ships?construction-physics.com 2nd of 8 in this piece

    Interesting

  17. Our readingWartime shipbuilding surges have never left America with a commercial shipbuilding industry afterwards.

    Their wordsBut the U.S. again failed to transform its enormous shipbuilding effort into a successful commercial shipbuilding industry.

    ↗Why Can't the U.S. Build Ships?construction-physics.com 3rd of 8 in this piece

    Interesting

  19. Our readingInventing a manufacturing technology and building a competitive industry on it are separate achievements, and America has repeatedly done only the first.

    Their wordsBut in turning these innovations into competitive industries, America has come up short.

    ↗Why Can't the U.S. Build Ships?construction-physics.com 4th of 8 in this piece

    innovation

    Interesting

  21. Our readingWhat has kept American shipbuilding uncompetitive is the high cost of its inputs, above all labour and steel.

    Their wordsThe first is the high cost of inputs, particularly labor and steel.

    ↗Why Can't the U.S. Build Ships?construction-physics.com 5th of 8 in this piece

    Interesting

  23. Our readingCommercial shipbuilding keeps moving to whichever country has the cheapest labour, and America has never been that country.

    Their wordsShipbuilding is labor intensive, and we see a repeated pattern of it moving to countries with low-cost labor: from Britain to Japan, then to Korea, then to China.

    ↗Why Can't the U.S. Build Ships?construction-physics.com 6th of 8 in this piece

    ChinaJapan

    Interesting

  25. Our readingWhether a country builds ships well comes down to whether it actually wants to compete internationally, and America never has.

    Their wordsThe U.S., on the other hand, never appears to have been strongly motivated to make its shipbuilding industry an international success.

    ↗Why Can't the U.S. Build Ships?construction-physics.com 7th of 8 in this piece

    Interesting

  27. Our readingSheltering an industry from competition is not the same as making it competitive, and American maritime policy has only ever done the first.

    Their wordsShipbuilding policies have long been much more focused on sheltering the industry from competition rather than driving to make it successful.

    ↗Why Can't the U.S. Build Ships?construction-physics.com 8th of 8 in this piece

    Interesting
  28. 4 months earlier

  29. Our readingFabs take roughly a third longer to build in the United States than in Asia, largely because of environmental review.

    Their wordsFab construction time in the US has increased from just over 650 days on average in the 1990s to over 900 days on average in the 2010s, compared to around 600-700 days in Asian countries, in part because of increasingly stringent environmental review processes.

    ↗How to Build a $20 Billion Semiconductor Fabconstruction-physics.com 2nd of 7 in this piece

    Interesting
  30. 4 weeks earlier

  31. Our readingFor most American housing the largest cost is putting up the physical building, not the land it sits on or the rules attached to that land.

    Their wordsDiscussions of housing policy often focus on issues of zoning, regulation, and other supply restrictions which manifest as increased land prices, but for most American housing, the largest cost comes from building the physical structure itself.

    ↗What Makes Housing So Expensive?construction-physics.com 1st of 4 in this piece

    housing

    Interesting
  32. 23 months earlier

  33. Our readingThe United States really is short several million homes, and the shortage shows up as a historically low vacancy rate rather than as too few homes per person.

    Their wordsSo, historical evidence suggests that the US is short at least several million housing units.

    ↗Is There a Housing Shortage or Not?construction-physics.com 2nd of 6 in this piece

    housing

    Interesting

  35. Our readingMost apparent trends in American housing are the Bay Area in disguise: a handful of outlier metros drive the correlations people quote.

    Their wordsIn general, housing trends are largely driven by a small number of outlier metros.

    ↗Is There a Housing Shortage or Not?construction-physics.com 6th of 6 in this piece

    housing

    Interesting