What Brian Potter thinks about semiconductors
Structural engineer and writer, author of the Construction Physics newsletter, where he takes apart how large physical things — buildings, ships, semiconductor fabs, aeroplanes — actually get made, and why the cost of making them moves the way it does.
Brian Potter did not write this page.
We collected these quotes from things they published elsewhere, and every quote links to where it was said. They have no account here and have not endorsed this site. Quotes are word for word; the short line under each one is our own restatement, not their wording. Their own site. Is this you? Claim it or ask us to remove it. Or tell us what is wrong here.
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9 dated positions, 2024, in their own words. Our reading of what Brian Potter has said — not written or endorsed by them.
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Their wordsSpruce Pine quartz isn’t quite an irreplaceable linchpin in semiconductor manufacturing.
↗Does All Semiconductor Manufacturing Depend on Spruce Pine Quartz?construction-physics.com 1st of 2 in this piece
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Their wordsThe downside is that synthetic quartz is much more expensive, perhaps on the order of 5–10 times the cost of natural high-purity quartz.
↗Does All Semiconductor Manufacturing Depend on Spruce Pine Quartz?construction-physics.com 2nd of 2 in this piece
- 6 months earlier
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Our readingThe same law that made chips cheaper made the factories that produce them enormously more expensive.
Their wordsThese enormous costs are ultimately due to the same factor that has steadily driven down the cost of semiconductors: Moore’s Law, the observation that the number of components on an integrated circuit tends to double every two years.
↗How to Build a $20 Billion Semiconductor Fabconstruction-physics.com 1st of 7 in this piece
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Their wordsFab construction time in the US has increased from just over 650 days on average in the 1990s to over 900 days on average in the 2010s, compared to around 600-700 days in Asian countries, in part because of increasingly stringent environmental review processes.
↗How to Build a $20 Billion Semiconductor Fabconstruction-physics.com 2nd of 7 in this piece
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Their wordsRoughly 70-80% of the cost of a new fab will be the process tools that go in it.
↗How to Build a $20 Billion Semiconductor Fabconstruction-physics.com 3rd of 7 in this piece
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Our readingLithography machines alone cost about as much as the entire building put up to house them.
Their wordsThe cost of lithography machines is often estimated as 20% of the cost of a new fab, which means that lithography tools can cost as much as the entire fab facility itself.
↗How to Build a $20 Billion Semiconductor Fabconstruction-physics.com 4th of 7 in this piece
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Our readingEvery new process node makes a fab about 30 per cent more expensive to build than the one before it.
Their wordsFor modern semiconductor fabs, each new process node increases fab cost by about 30%.
↗How to Build a $20 Billion Semiconductor Fabconstruction-physics.com 5th of 7 in this piece
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Their wordsBut as fab costs increased, it became more and more burdensome for manufacturers to operate cutting edge manufacturing facilities due to the high costs, and fewer manufacturers had the production volume to spread those costs over.
↗How to Build a $20 Billion Semiconductor Fabconstruction-physics.com 6th of 7 in this piece
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Their wordsThe second is that producing semiconductors requires almost unfathomable levels of precision.
↗How to Build a $20 Billion Semiconductor Fabconstruction-physics.com 7th of 7 in this piece