korrents

What Brian Potter thinks about housing

@brian-potter · 43 positions · 1 change of mind

Structural engineer and writer, author of the Construction Physics newsletter, where he takes apart how large physical things — buildings, ships, semiconductor fabs, aeroplanes — actually get made, and why the cost of making them moves the way it does.

Everything they publish, on ppll ↗

Brian Potter did not write this page.

We collected these quotes from things they published elsewhere, and every quote links to where it was said. They have no account here and have not endorsed this site. Quotes are word for word; the short line under each one is our own restatement, not their wording. Their own site. Is this you? Claim it or ask us to remove it. Or tell us what is wrong here.

10 dated positions, 2022 to 2024, in their own words. Our reading of what Brian Potter has said — not written or endorsed by them.

  1. Our readingFor most American housing the largest cost is putting up the physical building, not the land it sits on or the rules attached to that land.

    Their wordsDiscussions of housing policy often focus on issues of zoning, regulation, and other supply restrictions which manifest as increased land prices, but for most American housing, the largest cost comes from building the physical structure itself.

    ↗What Makes Housing So Expensive?construction-physics.com 1st of 4 in this piece

    America

    Interesting

  3. Our readingA house is built by trades that barely coordinate with each other, which is what makes housing cheap to design and almost impossible to redesign.

    Their wordsWhat is different about construction is the level of coordination that takes place: whereas in a car everything is carefully designed to tightly integrate together, in housing construction the work can be done (and often is) with surprisingly little coordination between the various trades.

    ↗What Makes Housing So Expensive?construction-physics.com 2nd of 4 in this piece

    design

    Interesting

  5. Our readingBuilding materials are already about as cheap as civilisation knows how to make them, so cheaper materials are not where housing savings will come from.

    Their wordsBulk building materials are already mass-produced in factories, and are among the cheapest materials civilization is capable of producing.

    ↗What Makes Housing So Expensive?construction-physics.com 3rd of 4 in this piece

    Interesting

  7. Our readingIt is only in dense cities that land dominates the price of a home, and there the land is expensive because of the rules limiting what can be built on it.

    Their wordsIt’s only in dense urban areas that the cost of land begins to dominate the cost of new housing, driven by regulatory and zoning restrictions that limit how much housing can be built in a given area.

    ↗What Makes Housing So Expensive?construction-physics.com 4th of 4 in this piece

    Interesting
  8. 23 months earlier

  9. Our readingYou cannot infer a housing shortage from how much a country is building, because how much it needs to build changes with its demography.

    Their wordsIf there’s one thing to take away from this essay, it's that you can’t infer a housing shortage by looking at housing construction rates in isolation.

    ↗Is There a Housing Shortage or Not?construction-physics.com 1st of 6 in this piece

    Interesting

  11. Our readingThe United States really is short several million homes, and the shortage shows up as a historically low vacancy rate rather than as too few homes per person.

    Their wordsSo, historical evidence suggests that the US is short at least several million housing units.

    ↗Is There a Housing Shortage or Not?construction-physics.com 2nd of 6 in this piece

    America

    Interesting

  13. Our readingHow much a metro builds relative to its population growth does not predict its rents; across the hundred largest US metros the correlation is essentially zero.

    Their wordsThere is essentially zero correlation - the metros with the largest rent increases had added population / added housing ratios no different than metros with smaller rent increases.

    ↗Is There a Housing Shortage or Not?construction-physics.com 3rd of 6 in this piece

    Interesting

  15. Our readingThe tighter a metro's restrictions on land use, the higher its rents; this is the strongest relationship anyone has found in the housing data.

    Their wordsThe more restrictions on land use, the higher rents you see.

    ↗Is There a Housing Shortage or Not?construction-physics.com 4th of 6 in this piece

    Interesting

  17. Our readingRents adjust to match what a region earns, which is why cities with flat or falling populations still get more expensive.

    Their wordsThere’s a reasonable amount of evidence that housing prices tend to adjust to match regional incomes.

    ↗Is There a Housing Shortage or Not?construction-physics.com 5th of 6 in this piece

    Interesting

  19. Our readingMost apparent trends in American housing are the Bay Area in disguise: a handful of outlier metros drive the correlations people quote.

    Their wordsIn general, housing trends are largely driven by a small number of outlier metros.

    ↗Is There a Housing Shortage or Not?construction-physics.com 6th of 6 in this piece

    America

    Interesting