Economists & investors
Economists and investors on markets, growth, policy and money.
In this listScott Sumner, Olivier Blanchard, Arnold Kling and 23 more
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Scott Sumnercompiled
Monetary economist known for NGDP-level targeting; wrote TheMoneyIllusion.
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Olivier Blanchardcompiled
Economist; former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund.
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Arnold Klingcompiled
Economist, formerly of the Federal Reserve Board and Freddie Mac, and one of the original EconLog bloggers. He writes about macroeconomics, housing finance and the limits of economic modelling, and has published his own post-mortems on what he failed to see before the 2008 financial crisis.
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Tyler Cowencompiled
Economist at George Mason University, co-author of Marginal Revolution, host of Conversations with Tyler. Writes in short, dense claims about economics, culture and AI, and has moved his position on AI in public more than once.
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Balaji Srinivasancompiled
Co-founder of Counsyl and of Earn.com; a general partner at Andreessen Horowitz from 2013 to 2018 and chief technology officer of Coinbase from 2018 to 2019. Wrote The Network State, which he publishes free and in full at thenetworkstate.com, and writes at balajis.com.
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Friedrich Hayekcompiled
Austrian-British economist and political philosopher (1899 to 1992) who shared the 1974 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences and argued that central economic planning destroys political freedom.
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John H. Cochranecompiled
Economist at the Hoover Institution, previously at the University of Chicago's Booth School of Business, and the author of the fiscal theory of the price level. Writes at The Grumpy Economist.
- Bryan Caplancompiled
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Robin Hansoncompiled
Associate professor of economics at George Mason University, originator of decision markets and futarchy, and author of the blog Overcoming Bias.
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Milton Friedmancompiled
American economist (1912 to 2006) and 1976 Nobel laureate in economics who argued that competitive markets are a precondition of political freedom and that government power should be limited and dispersed.
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Ray Daliocompiled
Founder of Bridgewater Associates, which he led from 1975 until stepping back from control in 2022. Author of Principles, The Changing World Order and How Countries Go Broke; publishes economic analysis at economicprinciples.org.
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Jamie Dimoncompiled
Chairman and chief executive of JPMorgan Chase, which he has led since 2005 after turning around Bank One.
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Keyu Jincompiled
Economist specialising in China's economy, international macroeconomics and global trade, and author of The New China Playbook.
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Lant Pritchettcompiled
Development economist. Research director of RISE at Oxford’s Blavatnik School of Government, formerly of the World Bank and the Harvard Kennedy School, and a founder of Labor Mobility Partnerships. He argues that letting people move across borders is the largest unexploited gain in global welfare, and that rich-country aid agencies have quietly abandoned the goal of making poor countries prosperous.
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Sriram Krishnancompiled
Investor and writer. Previously a partner at Andreessen Horowitz and a product leader at Twitter, Facebook, Snap and Microsoft. Writes essays and memos at sriramk.com.
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Brad Feldcompiled
Co-founder of Foundry Group and of Techstars. Has blogged at Feld Thoughts since 2004 and has written or co-written nine non-fiction books on startups and venture capital.
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Emily Ostercompiled
Economist at Brown; writes ParentData and the books Expecting Better and Cribsheet, reading the evidence behind pregnancy and parenting advice.
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Guy Spiercompiled
Zurich-based value investor who ran the Aquamarine Fund from 1997 to 2025 and wrote The Education of a Value Investor. He hosts the VALUEx gathering in Klosters and publishes a podcast and newsletter.
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Tim Harfordcompiled
Economist and journalist; Financial Times columnist as The Undercover Economist, author of How to Make the World Add Up, and presenter of the Cautionary Tales podcast.
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Dan Arielycompiled
Behavioral economist and Duke University psychology professor; James B. Duke Professor of Psychology and Behavioral Economics and founding director of the Center for Advanced Hindsight; author of Predictably Irrational.
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Greg Mankiwcompiled
American macroeconomist, born 1958, the Robert M. Beren Professor of Economics at Harvard University and author of the textbook Principles of Economics; chair of the Council of Economic Advisers from 2003 to 2005.
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Alex Tabarrokcompiled
Professor of economics at George Mason University and Bartley J. Madden Chair at the Mercatus Center. Co-writes the blog Marginal Revolution and co-authors the textbook Modern Principles of Economics with Tyler Cowen.
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Mark Carneycompiled
Prime Minister of Canada since March 2025; formerly governor of the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England.
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Emmanuel Macroncompiled
President of the French Republic since 2017.
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Javier Mileicompiled
President of Argentina since December 2023; economist and self-described libertarian.
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Jason Furmancompiled
Economist; Professor of the Practice of Economic Policy at Harvard, nonresident senior fellow at the Peterson Institute, and Chairman of the US Council of Economic Advisers from 2013 to 2017.
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A korrentour reading
Holding real assets should help central banks control inflation.Their wordsAt a basic level, holding real assets should help central banks to control inflation.
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A korrentour reading
Central banks should hold inflation-protected bonds as primary assetsTheir wordsCentral banks should hold inflation-protected bonds as the primary assets on their balance sheets.
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A korrentour reading
Under the general fiscal theory of the price level, sticky prices are accommodated through variation in the real interest rate.Their wordsThe general FTPL with debt on the left and surpluses on the right adapts to sticky prices by real interest rate variation.
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A korrentour reading
Post-unification Germany has made many policy mistakes and lost much former leadership, and much pessimism about it seems justified.Their wordsSo many policy mistakes have been made. So much leadership lost in the areas mentioned above. So much pessimism, sadly a lot of it seems to be justified.
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A korrentour reading
The Bundesrepublik Deutschland was an amazing and successful society.Their wordsAt times we forget what an amazing wonder the Bundesrepublik Deutschland was. At the end of the World War II, Germany was one of the sickest and cruelest human societies in history, ever. Not too many years later, it was one of the best and most successful societies ever.
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A korrentour reading
By the 1980s, West Germany had caught up to US living standards, with its provision of public goods sometimes superior.Their wordsBy the 1980s, living standards had caught up to the United States, with the provision of public goods sometimes superior. The country was fully democratic, pro-Western, and largely pro-American. Their rail system and postal service were amongst the best ever created.
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A korrentour reading
Fear of strong AI models killing everyone was not based on peer-reviewed research showing high doom odds, nor indicated by market prices.Their wordsMany people panicked about the possibility of strong AI models killing us all. That fear was not based on peer-reviewed scientific research showing a high chance of doom, nor was doom indicated in any market prices of the time, including measures of risk.
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A korrentour reading
Successful societies accept challenges and solve problems bit by bit, which best builds capabilities to meet existential risks should they arise.Their wordsIn my view, successful societies accept challenges and meet them. Solving problems, bit by bit, is the best way to ensure that we have the capabilities to meet big and truly existential risks, should those risks come along.
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A korrentour reading
One could say Armenia has maintained the few strengths of the former Soviet Union, and it is arguably the only place that has.Their wordsYou could say the country has maintained the (few) strengths of the former Soviet Union, and is arguably the only place that has.
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A korrentour reading
Armenia is significantly cheaper than most of Europe, making it a relative bargain.Their wordsArmenia is not dirt cheap, but it is much cheaper than most of Europe and so can be considered a bargain in relative terms.
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A korrentour reading
AIs, like children raised in a culture, can eventually be guided through teaching to join civilization rather than requiring permanent control.Their wordsLike our other bio-squishy descendants, our teaching and guidance should eventually show them how to join civilization.
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A korrentour reading
Treating a group harshly as though they are barbarians can cause them to act like barbarians, at least temporarily.Their wordsAnd beware: people treated strongly enough like barbarians may come to act that way, at least for a time.
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A korrentour reading
Cultural evolution, not biology, is the source of whatever makes humans distinctively special.Their wordsBut as humanity's superpower is cultural evolution, what ever makes us special is in our culture.
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A korrentour reading
Most multiple-choice test question writers are more predictable than they think.Their wordsNone of these methods guarantees success, but they do improve your odds because most setters of multiple-choice questions are more predictable than they realise.
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A korrentour reading
A tossed coin is more likely to land on the same face it started on than on the opposite face.Their wordsPersi Diaconis, celebrated both as a mathematician and magician, has found that a coin toss is, in general, a 51/49 proposition in favour of finishing the same way up that it started.
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A korrentour reading
People's behavior is generally predictable rather than random.Their wordsNo supercomputing was required: Shannon's machine had just 16 bits of memory. We humans are not hard to read.
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A korrentour reading
Banks oppose interest-paying stablecoins to avoid competition on checking account interest rates.Their wordsBanks don’t want competition, which would force them to pay interest on checking deposits. Plain and simple.
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A korrentour reading
Market prices, used appropriately, are the best available way to evaluate the likelihood of future outcomes.Their wordsI do believe that market prices, used appropriately, are the best way of evaluating the likelihood of various future outcomes.
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A korrentour reading
AI's long-run cost/benefit balance favors poorer people more than richer ones.Their wordsNonetheless, I suspect that in the long run the cost/benefit calculation for AI tends to favor the poor.
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A korrentour reading
Tech people tend to overestimate the risk of mass job loss from AI.Their wordsI do believe that most tech people overestimate the risk of mass job loss from AI, but that's because economics is one area where I feel I do have some expertise.
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A korrentour reading
A ban on self-recursive improvement in AI models would create a big incentive for some other parts of the world to invest a lot more in compute.Their wordsThe policy creates a big incentive for some other parts of the world to invest a lot more in compute.
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A korrentour reading
The U.S. president now wields power comparable to a temporary dictator.Their wordsThus, it is only a slight exaggeration to say that despite much rhetoric to the contrary, the president is more than halfway to being a four-year dictator.
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A korrentour reading
Political party platforms diverge most on issues where the party base cares intensely and the general electorate is apathetic.Their wordsIn the Neo-Median Voter Model, platforms diverge widely, especially on issues where the base is passionate and the median voter in the general election is apathetic.
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A korrentour reading
The U.S. Constitution's checks and balances have become largely ineffective.Their wordsIt means that the famed checks and balances of the U.S. Constitution are now mostly impotent.
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A korrentour reading
War cannot be morally justified unless there is high confidence its long-run effects are very good.Their wordsActual war means killing a lot of innocent people - and that cannot be justified unless you have high confidence that the long-run effects are very good.
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A korrentour reading
Since 1990, the United States has carefully planned its wars but poorly planned for their aftermath.Their wordsYou could consider "Since 1990, the U.S. has carefully planned its wars, yet poorly planned for the aftermath" a mixed compliment.
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A korrentour reading
When the Fed buys long-term Treasuries under QE, issues overnight debt, and passes the interest difference back to the Treasury, it is as if the Treasury issued overnight debt.Their wordsIn QE, the Treasury issued long-term bonds. The Fed bought up the long bonds, issued overnight debt, and passed the interest difference back to the Treasury. In the end, it is just as if the Treasury issued overnight debt in the first place.
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A korrentour reading
The tradeoff between government borrowing cost and interest-rate risk should rest with the politically accountable Treasury, not the independent Fed.Their wordsThe tradeoff between cost of borrowing and how much interest rate risk taxpayers shoulder should be squarely on the shoulders of the politically-accountable Treasury not the independent Fed.
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A korrentour reading
The bulk of government debt should gradually consist of fixed-coupon perpetuities and fixed-value floating-rate perpetuities.Their wordsSimplifying a bit, the Treasury should introduce a fixed-coupon perpetuity and a fixed-value floating-rate perpetuity. These should gradually make up the bulk of government debt.
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A korrentour reading
Speculative market prices are the moral authority best suited to guide the management of cultural evolution.Their wordsAt the mind level, the new moral authority that seems to best support these solutions is: speculative market prices.
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A korrentour reading
Cultural drift can be managed by letting capitalism run everything and using prediction markets to track a group's adaptive success and progress toward achieving key goals.Their wordsFor the post-modern era, the process solutions that I've found to cultural drift are (a) letting capitalism run everything, (b) groups managed to raise futures market price estimates of future group adaptive success, and (c) large regions managed to improve futures market estimates of dates when we achieve sacred goals that conflict with civ collapse.
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Their wordsthe modern era is when humanity broke its process for the evolution of (not in) cultures, due to making an integrated world of fast change driven by capitalism, but where capitalism was blocked from running many key areas of culture.
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A korrentour reading
Draconian price controls are among the most ruinous economic policies a government can impose.Their wordsDraconian price controls are among the most ruinous of all economic policies.
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A korrentour reading
Economic sanctions almost never achieve the policy goals they are intended to achieve.Their wordsSmith would probably be able to explain to our foreign policy establishment why Russia's economy continued to do well after "draconian" sanctions were imposed in early 2022, and why economic sanctions almost never achieve their policy goals.
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A korrentour reading
People systematically overestimate how much any single economic shock affects the macroeconomy.Their wordsThat's not to say that real shocks never matter-Covid certainly had an impact on the economy-rather that people tend to overestimate the impact of any given shock.
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Behavioral economist and Duke University psychology professor; James BAdd to listTheir profile on ppll ↗
A korrentour reading
Paternalism feels more acceptable for big, hard-to-reverse decisions that resist learning and carry deep information gapsTheir wordsPut these four together — a big decision, hard to reverse, resistant to learning, with deep information asymmetry — and under those conditions I feel much more comfortable saying: let’s not make everyone figure this out alone.
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A korrentour reading
If people are predictably irrational, maybe their decisions need help and sometimes their options need limitingTheir wordsIf people are predictably irrational, then maybe we also need to help improve their decisions. Maybe, sometimes, we need to limit their options.
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A korrentour reading
Small, reversible, learnable decisions between equally informed sides should be left to people, with no paternalismTheir wordsSmall decision? Reversible? Easy to learn from? Both sides equally informed? Then leave people alone — that is exactly the territory where freedom to make our own mistakes is how we learn, and where paternalism has no business.
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A korrentour reading
A society's commitment to truth-telling matters because most individual beliefs are inherited from the surrounding society rather than independently verifiedTheir wordsFirst, if most of our beliefs are handed to us by the society in which we live, it is vital that our society itself values truth and truth-telling.
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A korrentour reading
It is worthwhile to pause and think critically about what other people tell you before accepting itTheir wordsSecond, it is never a bad idea to stop and think for a moment about what other people tell you.