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← Nobody can reliably predict when market drops will occur, how deep they'll go, or when they'll end.
17 connected korrents · 17 moments on record from 30 Jun 2022 to 15 Sept 2026.
Everything filed under AI and jobs
AI and jobs
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stock market
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venture capital
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investing
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LLMs Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Read this korrent: Nobody can reliably predict when market drops will occur, how deep they'll go, or when they'll end. Nobody can reliably predict when market drops will occur, how deep they'll go, or when they'll end. Last stated a year ago
12 May 2025
JC
JL Collins — holds since 2025-05-12 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Market bubbles and crashes are inevitable but impossible to predict in advance. — tap to centre the map on it Market bubbles and crashes are inevitable but impossible to predict in advance. Last stated 2 months ago
30 Jul 2026
JC
JL Collins — holds since 2026-07-30 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A run of correct forecasts is not evidence of expertise, because among many forecasters some are right by chance. — tap to centre the map on it A run of correct forecasts is not evidence of expertise, because among many forecasters some are right by chance. Last stated 4 years ago
9 Aug 2022
GK
Gary Klein — holds since 2022-08-09 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The track record of thoughtful people predicting the long-run future is mediocre rather than hopeless, which is enough to take such predictions seriously. — tap to centre the map on it The track record of thoughtful people predicting the long-run future is mediocre rather than hopeless, which is enough to take such predictions seriously. Last stated 4 years ago
30 Jun 2022
HK
Holden Karnofsky — holds since 2022-06-30 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Individual economists' forecasts about AI and the labour market are close to worthless, and aggregated forecasts from prediction markets should replace them. — tap to centre the map on it Individual economists' forecasts about AI and the labour market are close to worthless, and aggregated forecasts from prediction markets should replace them. Last stated 4 months ago
4 Jun 2026
AI
Alex Imas — holds since 2026-06-04 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Market history teaches why things behave as they do, never what happens next, because the details never repeat. — tap to centre the map on it Market history teaches why things behave as they do, never what happens next, because the details never repeat. Last stated 2 years ago
7 Apr 2024
MH
Morgan Housel — holds since 2024-04-07 — tap for who they are
Same subject: If a lab is off by a single year in its revenue forecast, no hedge on Earth stops the compute it already bought from bankrupting it. — tap to centre the map on it If a lab is off by a single year in its revenue forecast, no hedge on Earth stops the compute it already bought from bankrupting it. Last stated 7 months ago
13 Feb 2026
DA
Dario Amodei — holds since 2026-02-13 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Day trading and technical analysis are proven not to work. — tap to centre the map on it Day trading and technical analysis are proven not to work. Last stated a month ago
17 Aug 2026
PL
Pieter Levels — holds since 2026-08-17 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Publishing industry claims to predict how trends will play out, but such predictions are unreliable. — tap to centre the map on it Publishing industry claims to predict how trends will play out, but such predictions are unreliable. Last stated 6 days ago
15 Sept 2026
LM
Lincoln Michel — holds since 2026-09-15 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A company must cut half its engineers to pay for the other half's tokens, and that is what the layoffs are actually about. — tap to centre the map on it A company must cut half its engineers to pay for the other half's tokens, and that is what the layoffs are actually about. Last stated 6 months ago
11 Mar 2026
SY
Steve Yegge — holds since 2026-03-11 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A productivity improvement means fewer people doing the same job, and that should be said plainly by the people defending it as good. — tap to centre the map on it A productivity improvement means fewer people doing the same job, and that should be said plainly by the people defending it as good. Last stated 4 weeks ago
26 Aug 2026
DH
David Heinemeier Hansson — holds since 2026-08-26 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A universal basic income is a dangerous power-sharing arrangement, because it puts everyone's basic needs at the mercy of whoever holds office. — tap to centre the map on it A universal basic income is a dangerous power-sharing arrangement, because it puts everyone's basic needs at the mercy of whoever holds office. Last stated 4 months ago
4 Jun 2026
AI
Alex Imas — holds since 2026-06-04 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A "good business" now means one that can display quarter-on-quarter stock growth, not one that makes good products at a fair price. — tap to centre the map on it A "good business" now means one that can display quarter-on-quarter stock growth, not one that makes good products at a fair price. Last stated a year ago
21 May 2025
EZ
Ed Zitron — holds since 2025-05-21 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Almost all of the dot-com era's exuberance turned out to be warranted; we remember the failures and forget the value that era created. — tap to centre the map on it Almost all of the dot-com era's exuberance turned out to be warranted; we remember the failures and forget the value that era created. Last stated a year ago
18 Aug 2025
BT
Bret Taylor — holds since 2025-08-18 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Buying and holding a handful of index funds for decades outperforms most people who trade to beat the market, including most professionals. — tap to centre the map on it Buying and holding a handful of index funds for decades outperforms most people who trade to beat the market, including most professionals. Last stated 2 years ago
24 Aug 2024
JZ
Jason Zweig — holds since 2024-08-24 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A first-time founder has an advantage over a repeat winner, because past success makes it too easy to raise money and hire against a big vision before there is product-market fit. — tap to centre the map on it A first-time founder has an advantage over a repeat winner, because past success makes it too easy to raise money and hire against a big vision before there is product-market fit. Last stated 3 months ago
14 Jun 2026
MP
Mark Pincus — holds since 2026-06-14 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A founder should take half the valuation if it buys all of the control, because the right to be wrong in your own way is what founding was for. — tap to centre the map on it A founder should take half the valuation if it buys all of the control, because the right to be wrong in your own way is what founding was for. Last stated 4 months ago
2 Jun 2026
MP
Mark Pincus — holds since 2026-06-02 — tap for who they are
Same subject: About 5% is the most common final ownership stake for the founder of a VC-funded startup that works out. — tap to centre the map on it About 5% is the most common final ownership stake for the founder of a VC-funded startup that works out. Last stated 2 months ago
18 Jul 2026
PL
Pieter Levels — holds since 2026-07-18 — tap for who they are
At the centre
Nobody can reliably predict when market drops will occur, how deep they'll go, or when they'll end.
Holds Read this korrent →
Market bubbles and crashes are inevitable but impossible to predict in advance.
Holds
A run of correct forecasts is not evidence of expertise, because among many forecasters some are right by chance.
Holds
The track record of thoughtful people predicting the long-run future is mediocre rather than hopeless, which is enough to take such predictions seriously.
Holds
Individual economists' forecasts about AI and the labour market are close to worthless, and aggregated forecasts from prediction markets should replace them.
Holds
Market history teaches why things behave as they do, never what happens next, because the details never repeat.
Holds
If a lab is off by a single year in its revenue forecast, no hedge on Earth stops the compute it already bought from bankrupting it.
Holds
Day trading and technical analysis are proven not to work.
Holds
Publishing industry claims to predict how trends will play out, but such predictions are unreliable.
Holds
A company must cut half its engineers to pay for the other half's tokens, and that is what the layoffs are actually about.
Holds
A productivity improvement means fewer people doing the same job, and that should be said plainly by the people defending it as good.
Holds
A universal basic income is a dangerous power-sharing arrangement, because it puts everyone's basic needs at the mercy of whoever holds office.
Holds
A "good business" now means one that can display quarter-on-quarter stock growth, not one that makes good products at a fair price.
Holds
Almost all of the dot-com era's exuberance turned out to be warranted; we remember the failures and forget the value that era created.
Holds
Buying and holding a handful of index funds for decades outperforms most people who trade to beat the market, including most professionals.
Holds
A first-time founder has an advantage over a repeat winner, because past success makes it too easy to raise money and hire against a big vision before there is product-market fit.
Holds
A founder should take half the valuation if it buys all of the control, because the right to be wrong in your own way is what founding was for.
Holds
About 5% is the most common final ownership stake for the founder of a VC-funded startup that works out.
Holds