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← Nobody can reliably predict when market drops will occur, how deep they'll go, or when they'll end.

17 connected korrents · 19 moments from 30 Jun 2022 to 27 Sept 2026.

Everything filed under investing investing Everything filed under stock market stock market Everything filed under venture capital venture capital Everything filed under humility humility Everything filed under journalism journalism Everything filed under AI and jobs AI and jobs Same subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subject Read this korrent: Nobody can reliably predict when market drops will occur, how deep they'll go, or when they'll end. Nobody can reliably predict when marketdrops will occur, how deep they'll go, orwhen they'll end. Last stated a year ago 12 May 2025 JC JL Collins — holds since 2025-05-12 — tap for who they are Same subject: Market bubbles and crashes are inevitable but impossible to predict in advance. — tap to centre the map on it Market bubbles and crashes areinevitable but impossible to predictin advance. Last stated 3 months ago 30 Jul 2026 JC JL Collins — holds since 2026-07-30 — tap for who they are Same subject: A run of correct forecasts is not evidence of expertise, because among many forecasters some are right by chance. — tap to centre the map on it A run of correct forecasts is notevidence of expertise, because amongmany forecasters some are right bychance. Last stated 4 years ago 9 Aug 2022 GK Gary Klein — holds since 2022-08-09 — tap for who they are Same subject: Nobody is smart enough to predict the future consistently — tap to centre the map on it Nobody is smart enough to predictthe future consistently Last stated 2 years ago 20 Feb 2025 DH David Heinemeier Hansson — holds since 2025-02-20 — tap for who they are Same subject: Nobody is to blame for the valuation bubble; it was just a market. — tap to centre the map on it Nobody is to blame for the valuationbubble; it was just a market. Last stated 4 years ago 12 Dec 2022 MS Mark Suster — holds since 2022-12-12 — tap for who they are Same subject: The nonfiction market may be experiencing a serious contraction or significant down cycle that nothing will reverse. — tap to centre the map on it The nonfiction market may beexperiencing a serious contractionor significant down cycle thatnothing will reverse. Last stated 2 months ago 13 Sept 2026 JW John Warner — holds since 2026-09-13 — tap for who they are Same subject: The track record of thoughtful people predicting the long-run future is mediocre rather than hopeless, which is enough to take such predictions seriously. — tap to centre the map on it The track record of thoughtfulpeople predicting the long-runfuture is mediocre rather thanhopeless, which is enough to takesuch predictions seriously. Last stated 4 years ago 30 Jun 2022 HK Holden Karnofsky — holds since 2022-06-30 — tap for who they are Same subject: Individual economists' forecasts about AI and the labour market are close to worthless, and aggregated forecasts from prediction markets should replace them. — tap to centre the map on it Individual economists' forecastsabout AI and the labour market areclose to worthless, and aggregatedforecasts from prediction marketsshould replace them. Last stated 5 months ago 4 Jun 2026 AI Alex Imas — holds since 2026-06-04 — tap for who they are Same subject: Market history teaches why things behave as they do, never what happens next, because the details never repeat. — tap to centre the map on it Market history teaches why thingsbehave as they do, never whathappens next, because the detailsnever repeat. Last stated 3 years ago 7 Apr 2024 MH Morgan Housel — holds since 2024-04-07 — tap for who they are Same subject: A "good business" now means one that can display quarter-on-quarter stock growth, not one that makes good products at a fair price. — tap to centre the map on it A "good business" now means one thatcan display quarter-on-quarter stockgrowth, not one that makes goodproducts at a fair price. Last stated a year ago 21 May 2025 EZ Ed Zitron — holds since 2025-05-21 — tap for who they are Same subject: A high, stable dividend yield gives a stock's valuation a downside floor that growth stocks without dividends lack. — tap to centre the map on it A high, stable dividend yield givesa stock's valuation a downside floorthat growth stocks without dividendslack. Last stated 8 months ago 3 Mar 2026 SB Sanjay Bakshi — holds since 2026-03-03 — tap for who they are Same subject: A society's prosperity comes from its productivity, not from the financial system or stock market. — tap to centre the map on it A society's prosperity comes fromits productivity, not from thefinancial system or stock market. Last stated a month ago 25 Sept 2026 MM Mr. Money Mustache — holds since 2026-09-25 — tap for who they are Same subject: A big venture firm's edge is deploying capital into what is obviously working; a small firm's is backing a founder or idea that is not yet obvious. — tap to centre the map on it A big venture firm's edge isdeploying capital into what isobviously working; a small firm's isbacking a founder or idea that isnot yet obvious. Last stated a year ago 23 Jul 2025 JS Jon Sakoda — holds since 2025-07-23 — tap for who they are Same subject: A cash-flowing core business can fund long-term speculative R&D in a way no venture capitalist would ever support. — tap to centre the map on it A cash-flowing core business canfund long-term speculative R&D in away no venture capitalist would eversupport. Last stated 7 months ago 12 Apr 2026 ES Evan Spiegel — holds since 2026-04-12 — tap for who they are Same subject: A first-time founder has an advantage over a repeat winner, because past success makes it too easy to raise money and hire against a big vision before there is product-market fit. — tap to centre the map on it A first-time founder has anadvantage over a repeat winner,because past success makes it tooeasy to raise money and hire againsta big vision before there isproduct-market fit. Last stated 5 months ago 14 Jun 2026 MP Mark Pincus — holds since 2026-06-14 — tap for who they are Same subject: Samuelson's random-walk analogy for stock prices was mathematical showing-off dressed up as a claim about the real world. — tap to centre the map on it Samuelson's random-walk analogy forstock prices was mathematicalshowing-off dressed up as a claimabout the real world. Last stated 3 years ago 30 May 2023 AG Andrew Gelman — holds since 2023-05-27 — tap for who they are AG Andrew Gelman — no longer holds since 2023-05-30 — tap for who they are Same subject: Stock prices are an unreliable indicator of the economy because they often reflect fads and fantasies. — tap to centre the map on it Stock prices are an unreliableindicator of the economy becausethey often reflect fads andfantasies. Last stated a month ago 27 Sept 2026 PK Paul Krugman — holds since 2026-09-27 — tap for who they are Same subject: Stocks sustained by persistent online attention can stay overpriced for long periods, so overvaluation alone does not imply a near-term correction. — tap to centre the map on it Stocks sustained by persistentonline attention can stay overpricedfor long periods, so overvaluationalone does not imply a near-termcorrection. Last stated 4 years ago 25 Jul 2022 NS Noah Smith — holds since 2022-07-25 — tap for who they are
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At the centre Nobody can reliably predict when market drops will occur, how deep they'll go, or when they'll end. Last stated 12 May 2025 · a year ago Holds JL Collins Read this korrent →