Nobody can reliably predict when market drops will occur, how deep they'll go, or when they'll end.

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Our reading — they may agree, disagree or merely touch the same thing. Closest first: a shared subject counts for most, then how near the wording is.

• Market bubbles and crashes are inevitable but impossible to predict in advance. JCJL Collins30 Jul 2026similar wordingAuthor of The Simple Path to Wealth and of the…
• A run of correct forecasts is not evidence of expertise, because among many forecasters some are right by chance. GKGary Klein9 Aug 2022similar wordingResearch psychologist who founded naturalistic decision making
• The track record of thoughtful people predicting the long-run future is mediocre rather than hopeless, which is enough to take such predictions seriously. HKHolden Karnofsky30 Jun 2022similar wordingCo-founder of GiveWell
• Individual economists' forecasts about AI and the labour market are close to worthless, and aggregated forecasts from prediction markets should replace them. AIAlex Imas4 Jun 2026similar wordingBehavioural economist at Chicago Booth
• Market history teaches why things behave as they do, never what happens next, because the details never repeat. MHMorgan Housel7 Apr 2024similar wordingPartner at Collaborative Fund and author of The Psychology of Money

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