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← Samuelson's random-walk analogy for stock prices was mathematical…
17 connected korrents · 18 moments from 9 Aug 2022 to 25 Sept 2026.
Everything filed under market efficiency
market efficiency
Everything filed under capitalism
capitalism
Everything filed under price gouging
price gouging
Everything filed under stock market
stock market
Everything filed under economists
economists
Everything filed under management
management
Everything filed under reinforcement learning
reinforcement learning
Everything filed under investing
investing Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Read this korrent: Samuelson's random-walk analogy for stock prices was mathematical showing-off dressed up as a claim about the real world. Samuelson's random-walk analogy for stock prices was mathematical showing-off dressed up as a claim about the real world. Last stated 3 years ago
30 May 2023
AG
Andrew Gelman — holds since 2023-05-27 — tap for who they are
AG
Andrew Gelman — no longer holds since 2023-05-30 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Neither monetarist money-supply-focused models nor Keynesian macro models have outperformed simple random-walk models at forecasting the macroeconomy. — tap to centre the map on it Neither monetarist money-supply-focused models nor Keynesian macro models have outperformed simple random-walk models at forecasting the macroeconomy. Last stated 3 years ago
1 Oct 2023
TC
Tyler Cowen — holds since 2023-10-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Even the most advanced AI cannot be followed blindly in investing, where value added is zero-sum and what is widely known is therefore worth little. — tap to centre the map on it Even the most advanced AI cannot be followed blindly in investing, where value added is zero-sum and what is widely known is therefore worth little. Last stated 4 months ago
10 Jun 2026
RD
Ray Dalio — holds since 2026-06-10 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The finance industry is built on false mathematical precision and prone to systemic collapse. — tap to centre the map on it The finance industry is built on false mathematical precision and prone to systemic collapse. Last stated 4 months ago
5 Jul 2026
SW
swyx — holds since 2026-07-05 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The claim that passive investing has made markets less efficient is overwrought. — tap to centre the map on it The claim that passive investing has made markets less efficient is overwrought. Last stated 4 months ago
18 Jun 2026
AD
Aswath Damodaran — holds since 2026-06-18 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Numbers offer a false precision: which metrics you choose to look at, and whether a five percent rise is good, are both art rather than science. — tap to centre the map on it Numbers offer a false precision: which metrics you choose to look at, and whether a five percent rise is good, are both art rather than science. Last stated a year ago
21 Sept 2025
JZ
Julie Zhuo — holds since 2025-09-21 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The goal was never good simulation; it was answering counterfactuals, and a value function does that job as well as a simulator does. — tap to centre the map on it The goal was never good simulation; it was answering counterfactuals, and a value function does that job as well as a simulator does. Last stated a year ago
12 Sept 2025
SL
Sergey Levine — holds since 2025-09-12 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Individual economists' forecasts about AI and the labour market are close to worthless, and aggregated forecasts from prediction markets should replace them. — tap to centre the map on it Individual economists' forecasts about AI and the labour market are close to worthless, and aggregated forecasts from prediction markets should replace them. Last stated 5 months ago
4 Jun 2026
AI
Alex Imas — holds since 2026-06-04 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A run of correct forecasts is not evidence of expertise, because among many forecasters some are right by chance. — tap to centre the map on it A run of correct forecasts is not evidence of expertise, because among many forecasters some are right by chance. Last stated 4 years ago
9 Aug 2022
GK
Gary Klein — holds since 2022-08-09 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A "good business" now means one that can display quarter-on-quarter stock growth, not one that makes good products at a fair price. — tap to centre the map on it A "good business" now means one that can display quarter-on-quarter stock growth, not one that makes good products at a fair price. Last stated a year ago
21 May 2025
EZ
Ed Zitron — holds since 2025-05-21 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A high, stable dividend yield gives a stock's valuation a downside floor that growth stocks without dividends lack. — tap to centre the map on it A high, stable dividend yield gives a stock's valuation a downside floor that growth stocks without dividends lack. Last stated 8 months ago
3 Mar 2026
SB
Sanjay Bakshi — holds since 2026-03-03 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A society's prosperity comes from its productivity, not from the financial system or stock market. — tap to centre the map on it A society's prosperity comes from its productivity, not from the financial system or stock market. Last stated 4 weeks ago
25 Sept 2026
MM
Mr. Money Mustache — holds since 2026-09-25 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Draconian price controls are among the most ruinous economic policies a government can impose. — tap to centre the map on it Draconian price controls are among the most ruinous economic policies a government can impose. Last stated a month ago
18 Sept 2026
SS
Scott Sumner — holds since 2026-09-18 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Dynamic pricing means prices decrease as well as increase. — tap to centre the map on it Dynamic pricing means prices decrease as well as increase. Last stated a month ago
13 Sept 2026
PG
Paul Graham — holds since 2026-09-13 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Europe's carmakers spent the early 2020s raising prices and profits at their customers' expense, and narrowed their own market doing it. — tap to centre the map on it Europe's carmakers spent the early 2020s raising prices and profits at their customers' expense, and narrowed their own market doing it. Last stated 3 months ago
22 Jul 2026
AT
Adam Tooze — holds since 2026-07-22 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A competitive market involves no personal rivalry and no personal haggling — tap to centre the map on it A competitive market involves no personal rivalry and no personal haggling
MF
Milton Friedman — holds since c. 1962 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A market becomes commodified through fungibility of alternatives, not merely through lower price. — tap to centre the map on it A market becomes commodified through fungibility of alternatives, not merely through lower price. Last stated 2 months ago
26 Aug 2026
RK
Rohit Krishnan — holds since 2026-08-26 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A market economy rewards putting land under campsites and horse liveries rather than under food, and that is the wrong thing to reward. — tap to centre the map on it A market economy rewards putting land under campsites and horse liveries rather than under food, and that is the wrong thing to reward. Last stated 3 years ago
9 Dec 2023
CS
Chris Smaje — holds since 2023-12-09 — tap for who they are
At the centre
Samuelson's random-walk analogy for stock prices was mathematical showing-off dressed up as a claim about the real world.
No longer holds Read this korrent →
Neither monetarist money-supply-focused models nor Keynesian macro models have outperformed simple random-walk models at forecasting the macroeconomy.
Holds
Even the most advanced AI cannot be followed blindly in investing, where value added is zero-sum and what is widely known is therefore worth little.
Holds
The finance industry is built on false mathematical precision and prone to systemic collapse.
Holds
The claim that passive investing has made markets less efficient is overwrought.
Holds
Numbers offer a false precision: which metrics you choose to look at, and whether a five percent rise is good, are both art rather than science.
Holds
The goal was never good simulation; it was answering counterfactuals, and a value function does that job as well as a simulator does.
Holds
Individual economists' forecasts about AI and the labour market are close to worthless, and aggregated forecasts from prediction markets should replace them.
Holds
A run of correct forecasts is not evidence of expertise, because among many forecasters some are right by chance.
Holds
A "good business" now means one that can display quarter-on-quarter stock growth, not one that makes good products at a fair price.
Holds
A high, stable dividend yield gives a stock's valuation a downside floor that growth stocks without dividends lack.
Holds
A society's prosperity comes from its productivity, not from the financial system or stock market.
Holds
Draconian price controls are among the most ruinous economic policies a government can impose.
Holds
Dynamic pricing means prices decrease as well as increase.
Holds
Europe's carmakers spent the early 2020s raising prices and profits at their customers' expense, and narrowed their own market doing it.
Holds
A competitive market involves no personal rivalry and no personal haggling
Last stated c. 1962
Holds
A market becomes commodified through fungibility of alternatives, not merely through lower price.
Holds
A market economy rewards putting land under campsites and horse liveries rather than under food, and that is the wrong thing to reward.
Holds