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← Samuelson's random-walk analogy for stock prices was mathematical…

8 connected korrents · 10 moments on record from 27 May 2023 to 4 Sept 2026.

Same subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subject Read this korrent: Samuelson's random-walk analogy for stock prices was mathematical showing-off dressed up as a claim about the real world. Samuelson's random-walk analogy forstock prices was mathematicalshowing-off dressed up as a claimabout the real world. AG Andrew Gelman — holds since 2023-05-27 AG Andrew Gelman — no longer holds since 2023-05-30 Same subject: Neither monetarist money-supply-focused models nor Keynesian macro models have outperformed simple random-walk models at forecasting the macroeconomy. — tap to centre the map on it Neither monetaristmoney-supply-focused modelsnor Keynesian macro modelshave outperformed simple… TC Tyler Cowen — holds since 2023-10-01 Same subject: Even the most advanced AI cannot be followed blindly in investing, where value added is zero-sum and what is widely known is therefore worth little. — tap to centre the map on it Even the most advanced AIcannot be followed blindly ininvesting, where value addedis zero-sum and what is widely… RD Ray Dalio — holds since 2026-06-10 Same subject: The claim that passive investing has made markets less efficient is overwrought. — tap to centre the map on it The claim that passiveinvesting has made marketsless efficient is overwrought. AD Aswath Damodaran — holds since 2026-06-18 Same subject: Numbers offer a false precision: which metrics you choose to look at, and whether a five percent rise is good, are both art rather than science. — tap to centre the map on it Numbers offer a falseprecision: which metrics youchoose to look at, and whethera five percent rise is good… JZ Julie Zhuo — holds since 2025-09-21 Same subject: The goal was never good simulation; it was answering counterfactuals, and a value function does that job as well as a simulator does. — tap to centre the map on it The goal was never goodsimulation; it was answeringcounterfactuals, and a valuefunction does that job as well… SL Sergey Levine — holds since 2025-09-12 Same subject: Individual economists' forecasts about AI and the labour market are close to worthless, and aggregated forecasts from prediction markets should replace them. — tap to centre the map on it Individual economists'forecasts about AI and thelabour market are close toworthless, and aggregated… AI Alex Imas — holds since 2026-06-04 Same subject: The efficient market hypothesis is at best a very lossy heuristic — tap to centre the map on it The efficient markethypothesis is at best a verylossy heuristic NF Nat Friedman — holds since 2026-09-04 Same subject: Technology has made markets less efficient at long horizons rather than more efficient. — tap to centre the map on it Technology has made marketsless efficient at longhorizons rather than moreefficient. CA Cliff Asness — holds since 2024-09-03
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At the centre Samuelson's random-walk analogy for stock prices was mathematical showing-off dressed up as a claim about the real world. No longer holds AGAndrew Gelman Read this korrent →