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← Neither monetarist money-supply-focused models nor Keynesian macro…
17 connected korrents · 16 moments from 15 Jun 2012 to 27 Sept 2026.
Everything filed under economists
economists
Everything filed under AI and jobs
AI and jobs
Everything filed under fiscal policy
fiscal policy
Everything filed under humility
humility
Everything filed under inflation
inflation
Everything filed under market efficiency
market efficiency
Everything filed under ambition
ambition Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Read this korrent: Neither monetarist money-supply-focused models nor Keynesian macro models have outperformed simple random-walk models at forecasting the macroeconomy. Neither monetarist money-supply-focused models nor Keynesian macro models have outperformed simple random-walk models at forecasting the macroeconomy. Last stated 3 years ago
1 Oct 2023
TC
Tyler Cowen — holds since 2023-10-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Samuelson's random-walk analogy for stock prices was mathematical showing-off dressed up as a claim about the real world. — tap to centre the map on it Samuelson's random-walk analogy for stock prices was mathematical showing-off dressed up as a claim about the real world. Last stated 3 years ago
30 May 2023
AG
Andrew Gelman — holds since 2023-05-27 — tap for who they are
AG
Andrew Gelman — no longer holds since 2023-05-30 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Individual economists' forecasts about AI and the labour market are close to worthless, and aggregated forecasts from prediction markets should replace them. — tap to centre the map on it Individual economists' forecasts about AI and the labour market are close to worthless, and aggregated forecasts from prediction markets should replace them. Last stated 4 months ago
4 Jun 2026
AI
Alex Imas — holds since 2026-06-04 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Milton Friedman's best-known policy prescription, targeting the money supply, is no longer regarded as correct. — tap to centre the map on it Milton Friedman's best-known policy prescription, targeting the money supply, is no longer regarded as correct. Last stated 3 years ago
1 Oct 2023
TC
Tyler Cowen — holds since 2023-10-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Today’s models are already powerful enough to add many points of GDP growth; what is missing is people with the vision and ambition to apply them. — tap to centre the map on it Today’s models are already powerful enough to add many points of GDP growth; what is missing is people with the vision and ambition to apply them. Last stated 3 months ago
29 Jul 2026
AW
Alexandr Wang — holds since 2026-07-29 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Raising interest rates cannot meaningfully cool inflation when structural fiscal deficits, not private-sector lending, are its main driver. — tap to centre the map on it Raising interest rates cannot meaningfully cool inflation when structural fiscal deficits, not private-sector lending, are its main driver. Last stated 2 years ago
8 Jan 2025
LA
Lyn Alden — holds since 2025-01-08 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Most macroeconomic models cannot describe the AI transition, because they assume a single output that converts one-for-one into capital or consumption. — tap to centre the map on it Most macroeconomic models cannot describe the AI transition, because they assume a single output that converts one-for-one into capital or consumption. Last stated 4 months ago
4 Jun 2026
PT
Phil Trammell — holds since 2026-06-04 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Judging by output kept near potential despite weak private demand, Japan's decades of high debt and low inflation reflect a qualified policy success, not failure. — tap to centre the map on it Judging by output kept near potential despite weak private demand, Japan's decades of high debt and low inflation reflect a qualified policy success, not failure. Last stated 4 years ago
1 Jun 2022
OB
Olivier Blanchard — holds since 2022-06-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: When assessing an economy's trajectory, current performance signals are more useful than forecasts of potential GDP growth. — tap to centre the map on it When assessing an economy's trajectory, current performance signals are more useful than forecasts of potential GDP growth. Last stated a year ago
13 Aug 2025
AB
Andrew Batson — holds since 2025-08-13 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A country should raise revenue by tariffing foreign countries rather than by taxing its own citizens. — tap to centre the map on it A country should raise revenue by tariffing foreign countries rather than by taxing its own citizens. Last stated 2 years ago
20 Jan 2025
DT
Donald Trump — holds since 2025-01-20 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A thriving society needs both the left's redistributing of resources and the right's producing and conserving of them — tap to centre the map on it A thriving society needs both the left's redistributing of resources and the right's producing and conserving of them Last stated 3 years ago
11 May 2023
RB
Roy Baumeister — holds since 2023-05-11 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Automatic fiscal stabilizers give fiscal policy an advantage over monetary policy in stabilizing output because they act faster. — tap to centre the map on it Automatic fiscal stabilizers give fiscal policy an advantage over monetary policy in stabilizing output because they act faster. Last stated 4 years ago
1 Jun 2022
OB
Olivier Blanchard — holds since 2022-06-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A CEO grading themselves a failure for their mistakes does not help; every CEO makes thousands of mistakes — tap to centre the map on it A CEO grading themselves a failure for their mistakes does not help; every CEO makes thousands of mistakes Last stated 14 years ago
15 Jun 2012
BH
Ben Horowitz — holds since 2012-06-15 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A designer's assumption about where a component belongs is a personal assumption and does not mean that the market or the users will react to the component that way. — tap to centre the map on it A designer's assumption about where a component belongs is a personal assumption and does not mean that the market or the users will react to the component that way. Last stated 7 months ago
2 Apr 2026
MS
Marvin Schwaibold — holds since 2026-04-02 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A designer's PRs should be very small and manageable if the designer is not comfortable reviewing or writing the code themselves. — tap to centre the map on it A designer's PRs should be very small and manageable if the designer is not comfortable reviewing or writing the code themselves. Last stated 5 months ago
26 May 2026
AM
Andy Madrick — holds since 2026-05-26 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A company must cut half its engineers to pay for the other half's tokens, and that is what the layoffs are actually about. — tap to centre the map on it A company must cut half its engineers to pay for the other half's tokens, and that is what the layoffs are actually about. Last stated 7 months ago
11 Mar 2026
SY
Steve Yegge — holds since 2026-03-11 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A likely outcome is that many occupations are eventually mostly replaced by AI while humans still have plenty to do. — tap to centre the map on it A likely outcome is that many occupations are eventually mostly replaced by AI while humans still have plenty to do. Last stated a month ago
7 Sept 2026
NS
Noah Smith — holds since 2026-09-07 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A lot of jobs will probably be created because of AI. — tap to centre the map on it A lot of jobs will probably be created because of AI. Last stated 3 weeks ago
27 Sept 2026
MG
Molly Graham — holds since 2026-09-27 — tap for who they are
At the centre
Neither monetarist money-supply-focused models nor Keynesian macro models have outperformed simple random-walk models at forecasting the macroeconomy.
Holds Read this korrent →
Samuelson's random-walk analogy for stock prices was mathematical showing-off dressed up as a claim about the real world.
No longer holds
Individual economists' forecasts about AI and the labour market are close to worthless, and aggregated forecasts from prediction markets should replace them.
Holds
Milton Friedman's best-known policy prescription, targeting the money supply, is no longer regarded as correct.
Holds
Today’s models are already powerful enough to add many points of GDP growth; what is missing is people with the vision and ambition to apply them.
Holds
Raising interest rates cannot meaningfully cool inflation when structural fiscal deficits, not private-sector lending, are its main driver.
Holds
Most macroeconomic models cannot describe the AI transition, because they assume a single output that converts one-for-one into capital or consumption.
Holds
Judging by output kept near potential despite weak private demand, Japan's decades of high debt and low inflation reflect a qualified policy success, not failure.
Holds
When assessing an economy's trajectory, current performance signals are more useful than forecasts of potential GDP growth.
Holds
A country should raise revenue by tariffing foreign countries rather than by taxing its own citizens.
Holds
A thriving society needs both the left's redistributing of resources and the right's producing and conserving of them
Holds
Automatic fiscal stabilizers give fiscal policy an advantage over monetary policy in stabilizing output because they act faster.
Holds
A CEO grading themselves a failure for their mistakes does not help; every CEO makes thousands of mistakes
Holds
A designer's assumption about where a component belongs is a personal assumption and does not mean that the market or the users will react to the component that way.
Holds
A designer's PRs should be very small and manageable if the designer is not comfortable reviewing or writing the code themselves.
Holds
A company must cut half its engineers to pay for the other half's tokens, and that is what the layoffs are actually about.
Holds
A likely outcome is that many occupations are eventually mostly replaced by AI while humans still have plenty to do.
Holds
A lot of jobs will probably be created because of AI.
Holds